“Business as usual in the relationship between the US and China will likely produce history as usual.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading:
filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard
(the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Graham Allison
AssertionSupported
Allison: 12 of 16 historical power transitions have resulted in war
“I find 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. In 12 of the cases, the outcome was war. In four of the cases, the outcome was not war.”
Graham AllisonJan 2, 2019▶ 3:51a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
AssertionSupported
Allison: Measured by PPP, China is the world's largest economy
“International economies, and I believe the best yardstick is purchasing power parity, which is also the yardstick that CIA and IMF think is the best yardstick. By that yardstick, China is currently the largest economy in the world.”
Graham AllisonJan 2, 2019▶ 5:30a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
AssertionSupported
Allison: China uses trade leverage like banana imports to coerce foreign governments
“The Chinese Not only have economic power, but they exercise economic power. So when the Philippines behaves in a way they don't like, they say, I think your bananas that you're importing to China may be suspect. So they just leave them on the dock till they ro…”
Graham AllisonJan 2, 2019▶ 9:23a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
AssertionNot checkable as stated
Allison: U.S. and China are virtually in a cyber Cold War
“So basically, I would say, interestingly, we now virtually have a Cold War in cyber between the U.S. And China.”
Graham AllisonJan 2, 2019▶ 15:51a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Allison: India will not displace the U.S. as Asia's dominant power
“No one imagines India is going to displace the U.S. As the predominant power in Asia.”
Graham AllisonJan 2, 2019▶ 4:36a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
AssertionPartly supported
Allison: Chinese development banks hold four times the capital of World Bank
“So now, for development loans, the Chinese development banks, if you take the group together, including AAAB, have four times the capital of the World Bank.”
Graham AllisonJan 2, 2019▶ 12:10a16z Podcast | Centers of Power, War, and History
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