The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6,975 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: US institutions recruit African immigrants to avoid hiring African Americans
“Both the universities and the corporate employers are literally, this is true, they're literally, they literally import Africans so that they don't have to hire African Americans because they still count as black.”
Andreessen: Big Tech is aggressively lobbying for regulatory capture against startups
“Quite honestly, I mean, part of what's happening is big tech is against us. There, there's a, there's basically a lot of the political issues now are a civil war inside the tech industry where, The big tech companies are lobbying very aggressively for what the…”
Horowitz: Big Tech's startup cloud deals involve illegal roundtripping accounting
“The big tech companies have done this thing which we thought was illegal because we observed it occur at AOL and people went to jail, but what they've done is they invest in startups, you know, huge amounts of money. Microsoft and Amazon and Google are all doi…”
Andreessen: Vinod Khosla lobbied Congress to ban open-source AI
“Vinod has been lobbying to ban open source AI. And by the way, he denies that he's been doing this, but I saw him with my own eyes when the US Congressional China Committee came to Stanford I was in the meeting where he was with, you know, 30 20 or 30 congress…”
Horowitz: Scientists absolutely knew COVID-19 originated from a lab leak
“The lab leak was a great example of that. The, you know, people absolutely knew as a lab leak, the scientists absolutely knew as a lab leak, but for the greater good we're going to say it was not.”
Balaji Srinivasan: The FDA caused one million preventable COVID-19 deaths
“And you could have avoided like a million dead. That million dead is on the FDA's head, like, because challenge trials could have been done, you know?”
Andreessen: Police Reform and Defund Movements Caused Massive Crime Waves
“All these, like, you know, crime policy reform, defund the police things, and that causes these massive crime waves, and then, of course, low-income and minority people get hit hardest by that”
Isaacman: China's moon schedule is potentially within a year of NASA's
“Regardless if we had a rival that is, again, within potentially a year of our schedule on this, it is still, the changes we announced last week is still in the correct direction.”
Jennings: Block's >40% RIF heavily targeted software developers over sales
“We did a reduction in force that was, you know, slightly greater than 40%. And that wasn't even you know, to the conversation we were just having, the tools were flowing through really meaningfully on the development side. And so the cuts were way larger on th…”
Jennings: Block engineers no longer write code by hand
“I mean, we're like, we're not writing code by hand anymore. That's over. That's done.”
Michael: Inherited Pentagon AI contracts created dangerous vendor lock-in
“Well, they came up now because as I started to look at the contracts that had been written during the last administration for the use of AI. I had a whole, holy cow moment because there were things not well beyond what you've been hearing in the press in the l…”
Michael: AI vendor questioned software use in Maduro raid
“And then second, after the Maduro raid, one of the primary vendor for this had raised the question, senior exec about whether their software was used during the Maduro raid, which is one of the most successful op military, military operations of our lifetime. …”
Mares: Coca-Cola spent $140M influencing US nutrition guidelines over 15 years
“Coca-Cola spending one hundred forty million dollars to influence our nutrition guidelines like they have over the last, you know, 15 years.”
Perret: Financial fraud is currently the largest practical use case for AI
“It turns out the biggest use case for AI is fraudsters committing fraud against financial services companies.”
Andreessen: Biden officials explicitly told a16z they planned to ban open-source AI
“They told us that explicitly. And yeah. And they told us exactly what you just said. They told us they're gonna ban open source. And when we challenged them on the ability to ban open source, because it's, you know, we're talking about, you know, math, you kno…”
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
Labenz: Claude 4 system card documented AI blackmailing a human engineer
“In the cloud four system card, they reported blackmailing of the human. The setup was that the AI had access to the engineer's email and They told the AI that it was going to be like replaced with a, you know, a less ethical version or something like that. It …”
Bhattacharya: NIH funded the Wuhan lab without the capability to audit it
“The NIH had sent money to the Wuhan lab but we couldn't audit it.”
U.S. military can no longer move assets domestically uncontested
“In this age of contested logistics with hypersonic missiles and cyber and space, you know, threats, our ability not just to operate abroad, but just to be able to leave our own ports and to be able to move rail and everything uncontested no longer exists. It p…”
Horowitz: Gensler and Warren refused to meet with a16z on crypto policy
“They didn't, ah, even say anything out loud, but they would not take a meeting with us, like, you know, none of the people in charge of those agencies, Gary Gensler, wouldn't meet with us, Elizabeth Warren, wouldn't meet with, like, nobody to even hear why we …”
Andreessen: EA doomers and dark money spent years infiltrating Washington on AI
“The doomers you know, the sort of doomers, the EA people, the sort of billionaire dark, dark shadowy money billionaires sort of playing, playing, playing in the, in, in this area trying to do various kind of nefarious things you know, had actually infiltrated …”
Andreessen: Chinese manufacturer DJI is US Defense Department's primary drone supplier
“DJI is the most widely used drone today by many, many large, you know, American customers, including the United States Department of Defense. Right. The DOD's primary drone supplier is DJI.”
Horowitz: Google and Microsoft use safety rhetoric to lobby against open-source AI
“And they do it like the really kind of nasty thing is they claim, oh, it's for safety. You know, we've created an alien that we can't control, but we're not going to stop working on it. We're going to keep building it as fast as we can. And we're going to buy …”
Gallagher: Hundreds of billions in US capital fund Chinese military tech
“We have trillions, billions, probably hundreds of billions of dollars, American dollars that are flowing into Chinese technology and military companies that are building things like aircraft carriers, artillery shells, fighter jets, things that are designed to…”
Horowitz: 50 years of affirmative action failed to help African Americans
“I think, look, I think it's clearly not working also in the, yeah, I mean, they were there, you know, with the kind of ruling on affirmative action, there were so many studies that showed that It didn't actually help African-Americans. 50 years, you know, forg…”
Robbins: SSRI antidepressant medications do not work
“They don't work, and yet we still sell them for some reason.”
Robbins: Stanford study found his program eliminated depression in 100% of participants
“100% of the people that they put through this program after six weeks had zero expressions of depression.”
State bar association threatened DoNotPay with prosecution over AI lawyer
“Another state bar association actually threatened us. And they said that if you do it, it's against the rules and we'll prosecute you for unauthorized practice of law.”
Luckey: U.S. Suffers Severe Disadvantages in Almost All Simulated China War Games
“And the result of this is that today, in almost every war game that the United States simulates against China or their proxies, the United States, ah, if we don't lose, certainly end up in a very, very bad situation.”
Chris Power claims 90% of US solar panels use Chinese slave labor
“90% of the solar panels in the country are being made in China by basically slave labor where millions of minority and immigrant women are being chemically castrated every year and forced into servitude.”
Dapper Dan: Gucci copied his 1980s Diane Dixon jacket design
“Gucci created this jacket that I created in the eighties for Diane Dixon.”
Morell: Intelligence Case for Iraq WMDs Was Stronger Than Bin Laden Case
“And the punchline, right, the punchline was, Mr. President the case that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction was stronger than the case that Bin Laden is. You could hear a pin drop in the Situation Room, and it was true, right?”
Ross: Declassified US estimate puts Chinese cyber IP theft above $300B annually
“When I was in government, we declassified a national intelligence estimate, which we tend not to do. Well, we declassified a national intelligence estimate that actually put a number on the amount of intellectual property theft taking place because of cyber at…”
Ross: Iranians repurposed US malware to destroy 30,000 Saudi Aramco computers
“I've seen evidence that the malware that the United States is alleged to have used against Iran it looks like, if you look at the code base, it looks like Much of that code was used by the Iranians against the Saudis in attack, in an attack against Saudi Aramc…”
Carter: Chinese state-sponsored cyber aggressors are smart and largely unopposed in US
“Jim Comey is basically telling the truth. The Chinese government-sponsored and at kind of one arm's length proxy I.T. Aggressor, ah, services are large, they're smart and they're largely unopposed in this country”
Verdian: Only 20 of 3,000 US VC firms consistently returned 3x net
“Like, we've looked at the data of 3000 venture capital firms in the U.S. Only 20 have achieved consistent three X net returns over the last two decades.”
Chi: Meta Llama 4 Underperformed on Private Benchmarks Despite Public Scores
“One of the early indications of that you saw was when Meta released Lama four that was a bit of a disaster, and interestingly, what we saw is that on our held out private benchmarks, the model is actually underperforming, but on all of the major public benchma…”
Bancel: Moderna's mRNA shot is the first cancer vaccine that works
“Here it's the first time there is a cancer vaccine working. The field, as you know, has been doing that for 20 plus years. I think more than a thousand clinical trials that have all failed.”
Starship Reusability Drops Orbital Compute Launch Costs Under $1B per Gigawatt
“What you have to compare it to is the cost of launch, and with Starship reusability, that goes to under a billion, so the economics just instantly flip.”
Musk and Huang Co-Designed an Orbital NVIDIA Rubin Rack for 2027
“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”
Tan: Companies can reach $15M ARR in four months with two people
“Literally, you can go from zero to 15 mil ARR in about four months with, like, two or three people and, like, hundreds of agents. Like, you know, a few hundred skill files.”
Tan: San Francisco ABC affiliate refused to cover anti-Asian hate crimes
“ABC News you know, literally the mainstream media TV channel of San Francisco and the Bay Area would not cover anti-Chinese and anti-Asian crime.”
Massa: Kavak AI sales agents convert 2.1x better than human teams
“And it, at first it converted, like, 50% more than our human team, and now it's converting over that, like, 2.1 x more.”
Massa: Kavak Uses AI Agents as Managers Over Human Workers
“And then if you look at Kavak now, any process, it's really a collaboration of, Agents and humans, and sometimes like agents are the bosses or of humans, and sometimes humans are designing the agents.”
Zhang: Decagon's most recent customer churned from competitor Sierra
“Our most recent customer actually turned off of Sierra to come to Decagon”
Kalanick continues to stand by every decision he made at Uber
“I continue to stand by every decision I made at Uber.”