Assertion Not checkable as stated
Verdian: Only 20 of 3,000 US VC firms consistently returned 3x net
“Like, we've looked at the data of 3000 venture capital firms in the U.S. Only 20 have achieved consistent three X net returns over the last two decades.”
Assertion Supported
Verdian: AI reached $100B revenue in 4 years vs 15 for SaaS
“We've reached a hundred billion in revenue in AI. It took SaaS 15 years to get to the same point. AI did that in four years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Verdian: No prior tech wave addressed $30T in GDP simultaneously
“There hasn't been a technology paradigm that hits on 30 trillion in GDP at the same time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Verdian: AI TAM can be 10x larger than traditional SaaS
“So the TAM of AI can be 10 X plus bigger than traditional SaaS or healthcare IT.”
Insight
Verdian: Late-stage funds require 5% to 10% position sizing in top company
“Venture-like returns are possible in late stage, but your best company should be five, 10% plus of your fund. That way you can actually return the fund on a single company. Fund returning math in late stage didn't exist before. It now does.”
Assertion Partly supported
Verdian: Average 10-year VC return trails public markets at 1-2x net
“If you look at Cambridge data, the average venture return over the last 10 years is one to two x net. You will do better in private equity. You'll definitely do better in the public markets. You don't need to lock up your money for 10 years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Verdian: Cursor recently raised at a $400M valuation on $3M ARR
“Tell me if I'm wrong, three million ARR, four hundred million dollar round, or somewhere maybe around there.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Verdian: Private equity is refusing to buy slow-growing seat-based software companies
“Even private equity today, when they're doing a new investment, they're looking for something that's AI native. They're not looking to buy a workflow software company growing 10% that's seed based. Like, that's just not happening.”
Assertion Partly supported
Verdian: 2021-2022 software LBOs valued at 25-32x EBITDA are now worth half
“So you look at 21, 22, about two to three hundred billion in LBO software transactions happened with over two hundred billion in that taken out. The average valuation for the software deals were 25 to 32 times EBITDA. Those companies today are worth probably h…”
Insight
Verdian: Private equity cannot fix software companies by deploying AI operating partners
“You can't just throw an operating partner at the company and say, let's put AI on it. It just doesn't work. You need to completely, and if you have, by the way, if you do have a founder mentality at the management team, like, it is possible, but the board has …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Verdian predicts Anthropic is about to go public five years after funding
“Anthropic was really first funded in twenty-twenty-one. It's about to go public five years later.”
Insight
Verdian: US AI energy bottleneck is regulatory speed-to-power, not baseline generation
“The U.S. Doesn't have a problem with energy generation. It has a problem with speed to power. That's permissioning transmission. That's regulatory.”
Opinion
Verdian argues AI revenue is real, not ephemeral like COVID-era software spikes
“A lot of, I've heard LPs say, this is like the dot com or this is COVID. It's not because the traction is real and it's not ephemeral revenue like COVID.”
Insight
Verdian says allocating across 50 to 70 VC funds guarantees average returns
“Because if you have an asset class where 20 firms out of 3000 do well, you should concentrate in those 15, 20 firms pretty consistently. So, when I see a portfolio with 50, 60, 70, Venture capital firms. It's very hard for me to imagine that the overall portfo…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Verdian: One percent of public revenue growth equals three percent of EBITDA
“Our data shows one percentage of growth in the public markets is equivalent to three percentages of EBITDA.”
Insight
Verdian says AI's primary bottleneck is supply-side infrastructure, not end-user demand
“The bottleneck in AI today is not demand. It's on the supply side. So you got energy, the grid data center, then you got chips, then you got frontier models and apps.”
Insight
Verdian: LPs keep their jobs missing frontier models if tracking benchmarks
“If you miss the frontier models, back to your first question as an LP, but you kind of were along the benchmark, maybe slightly below the benchmark, you're keeping your job.”
Assertion Supported
Verdian: Only 15 to 20 public SaaS companies trade above 10x revenue
“In the SaaS public markets, there are only like 15 to 20 companies max trading above 10 times revenues, which is quite an insane number because it used to be dozens and dozens a few years ago.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Verdian: Most public SaaS companies over 10x revenue show AI-driven acceleration
“Every one of those companies, for the most part, is showing acceleration of growth from AI.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2026
Verdian: Nearly 2,000 sub-$150M seed funds currently operate in the US
“Pre-seed seed, so think sub-one-fifty funds. There's thousand, thousand, close to 2000 today in the U.S. Alone.”
Assertion Supported
Verdian: The average unicorn company now remains private for over ten years
“So, it takes the average unicorn is private for 10 plus years, typically, and then you got all these follow-on rounds that are happening pretty quickly, one after the other, you see maybe the same logo in five, six different firms, and the question is, how do …”
