The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Marc Andreessen (14)Benedict Evans (13)David George (9)Ben Horowitz (8)Jared Isaacman (7)Dylan Patel (6)Alex Rampell (6)Frank Chen (5)Gavin Baker (4)Chris Dixon (4)Vijay Pande (3)Qasar Younis (3)
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The record (348) every resolved claim →
Wolf: Future wearables will predict illnesses before patients feel any symptoms
“These wearable devices are gonna predict that you're getting sick before you even start feeling symptoms and know.”
Boneh: An operating quantum computer will likely be built within his lifetime
“I would speculate that in my lifetime, We'll probably see some sort of a, of operating quantum computer.”
Sramek: California Forever city is designed for up to 400,000 residents
“And then imagine that it was a city for up to 400,000 people that was entitled and approved at once, and so you knew that for the next you knew that for the next 30 years, if this office is going to work and you'll be able to hire talent there, there'll be eno…”
Aviation could account for 50% of global CO2 emissions by 2050
“But our own industry projections are that by 20 50, that's going to be anywhere up to 50% of all CO two emissions everywhere.”
Friedrich: Capping climate change under 2C by 2050 impossible without reduced meat intake
“According to Chatham House, the foremost think tank in Europe, it's a literal and scientific impossibility that we keep climate change under two degrees Celsius by 20 50. Unless meat consumption goes down, and right now it's going up.”
Chen: Bloomberg forecasts EV sales will match gas cars by 2038
“Bloomberg is forecasting, 2038 as the year where electric cars reach parity in terms of sales with gas burning cars, and then they never look back. That will be the year of peak gas car production, 2038.”
Andreessen: Global smartphone adoption will soon reach 6 to 7 billion people
“We're at the point now, three billion smartphones on its way to six, seven billion on the planet. We're going to be able to connect everybody. We're going to be able to get, over time, we're going to be able to get everybody all the things that I went through,…”
Tseng: Shield AI Will License AI Pilots to Defense Hardware Makers
“When we thought about the next 10 years, the question was, like, is the future really about Shield AI building the world's best AI pilot, or is it about making a contribution to the industrial base so that, you know, everybody that's building these systems You…”
Pande: AI digital human models will enter clinical practice in 10 years
“And this could easily take 10 years before we start putting these things into the clinic. But I think it will happen, 10 years, a lot can happen in 10 years.”
Chokshi: 65+ Population Will Double Over Next 15 Years
“In fact, the over-sixty-five-year-old population is doubling over just the next decade and a half or so”
Tan: BPO market will grow from $300B today to $500B by 2030
“So the industry is valued at three hundred billion today with expectations to grow to over five hundred billion by 2030.”
Freescale: Electronics and software will be 50% of car costs by 2030
“Freescale, a semiconductor company, has already forecast that by 2030, 50% of the total cost of manufacturing a car will go to electronics and software providers as opposed to the traditional metal class rubber providers.”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow non-filmmakers to produce full feature films
“In this last couple weeks with the new version of Sora and a lot of these other new things that are coming out, AI is going to make a whole new kind of filmmaker possible to exist for the first time, which is the filmmaker with no visual skill, right, or acces…”
Keith Rabois predicts Donald Trump will replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
“He will replace Powell at some point.”
Patel: OpenAI will soon monetize free users via shopping affiliate fees
“And OpenAI makes nothing off of that. But they very, they really, really will soon, right? And partially that's because Amazon blocks chat, but like, you know, there's a way to make money from shopping decisions, whether it's Booking flights or looking for ite…”
Other US states will not replicate Illinois' AI mental health therapy ban
“I don't expect we'll see the other states go in the direction of Illinois, partially because it's just so hard to regulate.”
Gur: Scaling AI models will enable interactive playable games
“I think what we all agree is that we're very excited about the net new use cases, recreational, you know, image generation, like people just like having fun with it, and that becoming like now video, that becoming maybe like short playable games or whatever, l…”
Bry Predicts US Adversaries Will Exploit Low-Cost Autonomous Drones
“The possibility of building very low-cost systems that are very capable and capable of delivering strikes or capable of maintaining surveillance is, is very real, and our adversaries are likely to take advantage of it.”
Chen: Smart toilets in the 2030s will monitor health via urine analysis
“Now, it doesn't look like it's changed much, but like most other things in her house, this has become a smart toilet. It measures 10 properties of her urine, including glucose, and it looks for health problems before they become actual health problems.”
Chen: Custom apparel design research will be automated within hours by 2030s
“In the 20 thirties, this is going to be automated with software in a matter of hours.”
Kirwin: Future Pandemic and Immigration Policies Will Be Tested in Multi-Agent Virtual Simulations
“Well, when you have a multi-agent simulation, when we think about the next pandemic response or, you know, immigration policies and how those impact a civilization we're gonna be testing these in a virtual environment with these agents who can interact with ea…”
Ludwig: Commercial driverless trucks are at most a few years away
“To be honest, it's not long. We're talking a few years and I think on the long end,”
Cooper: Startups will continue staying private 10 to 12 years before IPO
“I think the other phenomenon we've seen, which I think is going to continue, is this idea of companies staying private much longer. And so it used to be that companies would go public six, six and a half years after they were started. Now it's 1012 years. I do…”
Rowan: Apollo is committed to establishing a second headquarters
“But we are committed to a second headquarters. We want access to a second talent pool.”
Yang: OpenAI Will Integrate Personal Agent Capabilities Directly Into ChatGPT
“I mean, I think that's what Peter Steinberg is working out at OpenAI, right? Yeah. He's probably going to build something to ChatGPT, which everybody uses so that ChatGPT can actually get stuff done for you and, like, maybe feels more human.”
Household appliances like stoves will soon incorporate built-in batteries
“Your stove is going to have a battery likely.”
McEntush: Grid batteries will expand from short-burst balancing to daily load-shifting
“Increasingly as batteries enter the grid, which as you've noted from the chart, it's not that significant penetration yet. It will start to be able to cycle over sort of a daily timeframe. So, as I mentioned earlier, taking energy from the middle of the day an…”
Srinivasan: Uber and Lyft will become logistics APIs within 15 years
“And I think that then again, in like 10 or 15 years, you'll be able to build a logistics company on top of Uber or Lyft for logistics or something like that, because those things will also be reduced APIs.”
Luzsicza: Galadyne will apply commercial liquid propulsion to missile systems
“With my background being purely in liquid propulsion across SpaceX, and even at UCLA launching liquid rockets, there's a very real way to apply this technology to the missile system, and we're gonna go do it.”
Tornberg: a16z to deploy internal media experts to portfolio startups
“Now that we've had them build art platforms, we're going to deploy them to work on behalf of our companies.”
China is actively investing in and will deploy autonomous weapons
“We know that China is, you know, investing in similar technologies. We know they're going to move out on it,”
Tyson: Kaiser will perform hospital admissions at home within 5-10 years
“We believe strongly that within the next five to 10 years there's a certain percentage of our admissions into the hospital we're going to be doing in the homes.”
Perret: Plaid will build tools for consumer AI data linking
“Our job as it relates to AI is like, let's build tools that allow consumers safely to link their data with agents. Then let's build tools that allow those agents to take the proper actions, be that just analyzing data or be that actually moving money or someth…”
Guo: Generative AI will lower anime game production costs
“Many people will be generating both like Mods and fan art, but also people will be using this in the production setting to get anime games out for cheaper and getting them out at, like, very high quality. So I think that will definitely happen for sure.”
Evans: On-device AI models will fail as capability gains outpace compression
“Will we have small models running on devices? No, because the small models, the capabilities are moving too fast for the small models to shrink the small model onto the device.”
Tenev: Robinhood plans to take its investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures, public
“We're working to solve this problem through tokenization in, in the EU and also through Robinhood Ventures in the US, which is a closed-down fund that we're gonna be taking public.”
Ulevitch: a16z Will Shift Defense Investments Into Mining and Supply Chains
“I think as you look to the future, I mean, everyone has their own view of what the future will look like for American dynamism, but I think we, you'll see us increasingly shift left. That's why we look at minerals and we look at critical, critical minerals and…”
Chan: CZI is consolidating biohubs and AI teams into one philanthropy
“Under Alex's leadership, we are going to come together as the biohub, a an operating philanthropy where we are doing the science,”
Andreessen: Paul Thomas Anderson's new Leonardo DiCaprio film will lose $120M
“So anyway, it, it's gonna do reasonably well because, you know, because it has Leo, but it's still gonna lose like a hundred, hundred and twenty million dollars are, you know, the estimates that I'm hearing, which is, you know, a pretty, pretty big loss you kn…”
Altman: OpenAI will likely charge users per video generation for Sora
“I assume it's like some version of you have to charge people per generation when it's this expensive.”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow every screenplay to be rendered as video
“Most, look, oh, look, most people who write a Hollywood screenplay never see it produced. They never see it on screen. Right. And now all of a sudden, like all of those screenplays could be produced. Right. And turned into, you know, maybe not a movie that's c…”
Murati: Future AI models will expand pre-training into multimodal inputs
“The world is not just in text, it's also in images, so I think That will certainly expand in, in that direction, and we'll have these bigger models that will have all these modalities and that's kind of the pre-training part of the work, where we really want t…”
Appenzeller: Future AI models will combine broad pre-training with private fine-tuning
“If I have to guess, I think the future will be that we'll, we'll still train on all the data we can find, right? And then maybe you fine tune, meaning you sort of do some additional training on a particular problem domain with your private data, if that makes …”
Mytton: Low-memory edge AI models will be deployed within years
“We're already seeing new edge models designed to be deployed to mobile devices and IOT that use very low amounts of system memory and can provide inference responses within milliseconds. I think those are going to start to be deployed to applications over the …”
Justine Moore predicts Kling AI will add multi-frame support to Kling 2.1
“Right now, Cling. 2.1 only supports a start frame, not a start and end frame, but I would imagine that they're going to add more frames soon as they've done for their other models.”
Angelopoulos: LMArena will remain open-source as a commercial company
“We're going to keep publishing papers. We're going to keep releasing open source. We're going to keep releasing open data.”
Scripps will run a GLP-1 trial for non-overweight long COVID patients
“We're gonna be doing a long COVID trial in people who are not overweight.”
Halozyme guides to $1 billion in revenue in coming years
“Which now Halozyme is guiding to about a billion dollar in revenue in the next few years.”
Bovell: AI will depress wages in modeling and programming
“We're going to see this across the board with AI. It's going to put downward pressure on a lot of different wages from modeling to programming, but that's where it becomes a little bit challenging.”
Kumar: Sesame will not build a one-size-fits-all AI companion
“So we're certainly not going to, we don't see our product as like one companion that's the same for everyone. People have different preferences and that has to be a part of this kind of product category for sure.”
Kumar: Sesame is developing a companion AI app with persistent memory
“We are making an app. We will make an app. I think for a little bit of time, it's going to still be kind of the demo experience. We want to support people using that for a long time, or, you know, we don't want to, we're not taking it away anytime soon from wh…”
Mariotti: Enterprise transition to microservices will take ten years
“At an enterprise level, you know, 99.9, they're still monolithic, so it's more a 10 years transition that we'll see, and what Netflix did, it will happen to Coca-Cola, to McDonald's, so there's a lot of value to be unlocked and to help companies doing this tra…”
Neumann: Over 70% of adults under 35 rent, and that will grow
“70% of thirty-five-year-olds and youngers are currently renters. They don't actually buy, and this number is not because of the interest rates that have been going up over the past six to 10 months. This is a number from 12 months ago. And we believe that that…”
Pande: Insurers will use NLP to process AI-generated reimbursement letters
“Eventually someone has to read all those letters. Someone has to validate them, and it's probably, you know, some sort of NLP on the other side.”
Isaacman: NASA targeting new SLS mission in 2027 and lunar landings in 2028
“We are standardizing the SLS rocket, increasing launch cadence from years to months. We're inserting a new mission in 20, 27 to buy down risk and increase confidence for lunar landing attempts in 20, 28.”
Conde: Medicine will cure sickle cell anemia within 10 years
“And so if I had to bet, I would bet that in the next 10 years, we will have solved sickle cell anemia, much like we've solved cystic fibrosis, that had a very similar profile in terms of what we understood about the disease.”
Friedman: Global Investable AUM Will Reach $100 Trillion
“There are 77 trillion dollars in assets under management today that are investable. It's probably going to grow to a hundred trillion in the next five to seven to 10 years.”
Chief Gennaro: New tech will stream live 911 calls directly to officers
“Soon as someone calls nine one, the officer in the field is going to be able to hear that nine one call come in as it's actually coming in.”
Karen X Cheng: Media Will Adopt Nutrition-Label-Style Disclosures for AI
“I think that will be developed. I think it will be necessary and it will happen, and I think it will be very similar to, like, nutrition facts on, like, all the food. Like, it's a universal standard that we have nutrition facts, and so there will need to be so…”
Karen X Cheng: Hardware Media Authentication Will Begin in Political Messaging
“It would have to be the hardware level, and I think it will be first adapted in, like, really high stakes scenarios where the veracity of something is extremely important. So, for example, in, like, political messaging, maybe they'll have, like, a very specifi…”
Dolgov: Waymo will continue using LiDAR, radar, and cameras together
“So yeah, I think the trend, you know, for us that we'll, you know, using all three modalities just, you know, makes a lot of sense.”
Scott Wu: Human-Facing SaaS Models Will Be Hybrid Near-Term
“I would say the layer where humans are actually interacting. I think the dominant model, at least for the next couple of years, is going to be hybrid.”
Dixon: People will make AI-generated feature films within two years
“In two years, you'll have people making feature-length films.”
Sensor and machine data volume will expand by orders of magnitude
“It will be literally orders of magnitude and in the exact mathematical sense, orders of magnitude, more data that needs to be stored in process.”
Cuban: Cost Plus Drugs will publish all network and operational data
“We'll be publishing everything we do. And so you'll be able to copy what we do and use the same networks, et cetera.”
Gallagher: TikTok will not go public in US under ByteDance ownership
“If you are invested in ByteDance, I would assume you want TikTok to go public in America. Ah, that's not gonna happen under the current ownership structure.”
Andreessen: AI detection software in schools will fail and falsely accuse students
“There are various attempts by companies to do like AI detectors now. You know, was this text written by AI and schools are actually starting to use that. And I think we can definitively, that will not work. Yeah. So what we can tell, there's already been cases…”
Song: Analysts project US housing construction pipeline will drop 50% by 2026
“And actually, analysts say that the pipeline is shrinking for twenty-twenty-six and beyond, so they said it's gonna drop by about 50%, so we're headed in the completely wrong direction.”
Hadrian will launch two 500,000-square-foot manufacturing facilities next year
“We built a 100,000 square foot in LA, and then we're going to launch two new facilities next year, which are about half a million square foot each, and then we'll keep expanding to every state”
Masad: Next year, users will run 5 to 10 parallel AI agents
“What we're working on with Agent Four right now is by next year, we think you're gonna be sitting instead of, in front of Replit, and you're shooting off multiple agents at a time. You're, like, planning a new feature so I want to, you know, social network on …”
Mistral AI plans to monetize through an open-core business model
“As a business, we do need to have a valid monetization approach at some point. But we've seen many businesses build open core approaches and have, A very strong open source community, and also a very good offer of services, and that's what we want to build.”
Yoo: Dozens of cell and gene therapies will reach market soon
“There are dozens of drugs of this ilk that are projected to be approved and brought onto the market in the next several years”
Yoo: Cheaper GLP-1 alternatives expected to be approved within years
“There is actually hope that there's a whole pipeline of cheaper versions of the current GLP-ONE therapies that are in the pipeline expected to be approved in the next several years”
Andreessen: AI will allow actors to scan themselves into 3D environments
“These systems and all the variations that are coming up you know, the capabilities are going to become available over the next few years, including, you know, rendering video, you know, we're going to get to the point now where like, for example, an actor is g…”
Patel: AWS year-over-year revenue growth will re-accelerate above 20%
“This is the lowest AWS revenue growth will be on a year-to-year basis. For at least the next year, right? And it's re-accelerating to north of 20% again because of all these massive data centers they have online with Tranium and GPUs, right?”
Blania: Social platforms will fail attempting phone face biometrics for human verification
“My guess is over the next couple months, we will see things like these platforms trying to use things like face biometrics on the phone, which, you know, I know it will break, so it's fine, but I think we'll go through that cycle now.”
Isaacman: Artemis II mission will launch around the Moon in coming weeks
“In the weeks ahead, America will send the brave Artemis II astronauts potentially farther into space than any humans have ever traveled in generations flying around the moon on a ten-day mission to test the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft befor…”
Luzsicza: Galadyne targets launching a rocket into the air by June
“We all sat down and we set this very ambitious schedule to go get a rock in the air by June.”
Rowan: Apollo investment grade private products will offer daily pricing by June
“And so, we're starting with our investment grade private suite of products, and we will be daily estimated value by June 30.”
Andreessen: Screenwriters will use AI to render full movies within years
“What's going to happen is they're going to use AI to be better writers and to write a lot more material. And by the way, if you're a Hollywood screenwriter, like all of a sudden, you're going to be able to use AI at some point in the next few years to actually…”
Barry McArdle: Hex enforces a rule to never automatically run AI code
“We have a rule as we're building these features. It's like, we don't run the code for you. Like we will generate the code. We will show it to you, but we want to keep the human in the loop.”
Srinivasan: Everyone will wear VR headsets within five to ten years
“So that's going to be kind of interesting in like five or 10 years, everyone's wearing these kind of things.”
Diamandis: XPRIZE competition aims to reverse human biological age by 20 years
“My biggest area right now is reinventing, disrupting healthcare a health span XPRIZE reverse your biological age or your functional age by 20 years, right?”
Postma: Social media will integrate AI clothing try-ons within years
“And I wouldn't be surprised if any social media is going to do this soon, because Instagram already has photos of your face, right? They could already train a model on your face in that kind of sense. And you could put the clothing on it that they put in their…”
Keith Rabois predicts multiple countries will make peace with Israel within months
“You're gonna see lots of countries You know, make peace explicitly with Israel, which is great. Whether they join the Abraham Accords directly or indirectly, it's all gonna happen in the next six months.”
Hicks: DoD aims to field thousands of autonomous systems within 24 months
“Replicator's goal has always been simple and straightforward, to field thousands of attributable autonomous systems in multiple domains within 18 to 24 months, and to prove ways to burn down risk and rapidly and safely overcome barriers to scaling.”
DoNotPay's first major AI product will target medical bill negotiation
“And so what we're working on now is actually communicating life on medical bills specifically, and I can go into the laws we're using around that. That will be kind of our first major AI product in Do Not Pay.”
Epoch AI: Anthropic and Amazon are building the first gigawatt data center
“For instance, we learned that the most likely candidate to have the first gigawatt scale data center is Anthropic, which would not have been my pick but Anthropic Amazon's New Carlisle Project Rainier development seems on track to come online in January follow…”
Patel: NVIDIA will hold over $100B in cash by late 2025
“The cash on their balance sheet keeps growing, and they're gonna have north of a hundred billion dollars of cash on their balance sheet by the end of this year, I think.”
Schmidt: Decentralized training of 400B parameter AI models is solvable by 2025
“I think it still is, it would still be, you know, like a next year sort of environment thing that we would have to do. There are some scaling problems, or not scaling problems, but technical things about how you shard the model, because at that point you get t…”
Amodei: AI training costs will hit $1B in 2024 and up to $10B in 2025
“I think that next year we're probably going to see from multiple players models on the order of one billion dollars, and in 2025 we're going to see models on the order of Several billion, I don't know, perhaps even ten billion dollars.”
Pope: The autonomous vehicle transition could be complete by 2025
“So it might start a little later than the optimists think. Might start in 2022, but it might be over by 2025.”
Chen: EV manufacturing costs will match gas cars by 2025 without subsidies
“Most analysts assume that electric cars will be as cheap to produce as gas-powered cars with no government subsidies by twenty-twenty-five.”
Kupor: Federal workforce will shrink by 300,000 employees due to DOGE
“We've done a lot of work over the course of this year, a lot of which was catalyzed by Elon and the Doge team. As a result, we expect probably that we'll end up with somewhere around 2.1 million employees at the end of the year, so roughly about a 300,000 redu…”
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