Insight
Schimpf: Small numbers of exquisite weapons cannot win modern wars
“A low number of really exquisite weapons is not gonna win a conflict, and I think Ukraine kind of definitively showed that to the world, that that is not a winning strategy.”
Disclosure
Schimpf: Anduril found virtually no American-born tier-one manufacturing executives
“Looking for a great head of manufacturing. There's basically no like tier one execs we could find that were American born. We ended up finding someone who was from Canada, but everyone I found who was like great thinking about this differently, like really nov…”
Opinion
Schimpf: Government grants to Intel are the worst form of industrial subsidy
“Grants are, in my opinion, the worst possible form of this. It's like, you know, giving Intel an outrageous amount of money to build a facility that they didn't believe they had demand for. It's like, why would they not take the money to build a facility? They…”
Assertion Supported
Schimpf: China possesses 250 times the shipbuilding capacity of the US
“Where there's something like 250 times the shipbuilding capacity you know, massively, massively, probably thousands of times on the weapon side. You know, it is just on drones. It's massive. Like, you just, kind of look category by category, massively outpacin…”
Opinion
Schimpf: Refusing to apply AI to military decisions is unethical
“Is like, to me, it is unethical to not apply these technologies to these problems.”
Disclosure
Anduril is partnering with OpenAI on counter-drone defense systems
“This is one of the areas we're partnering with OpenAI on”
Opinion
Schimpf: Defense prime contractor cartel refuses fixed-price government contracts
“So you have a relatively small cartel of these companies who sort of all say we won't do fixed price programs anymore. They won't do things on a fixed cost basis.”
Assertion Supported
Schimpf: Wargames show key U.S. munition stockpiles run out in eight days
“You know, one of the areas where we see it is showing up with weapons, so when you look at these wargaming sort of scenarios, and you know, all these wargames are sort of questionable in their own ways but pretty consistently the stockpile of key U.S. Munition…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Pentagon oversight bureaucrats outnumber accountable leaders 10 to 1
“It's just there are 10 times as many people who say no as there are to people who are accountable for doing it.”
Insight
Defense startups willing to build weapons are the most likely to succeed
“A lot of the areas that You know, are going to succeed are often the ones that are less popular. It's areas working on weapons. Like, this is not an area that a lot of companies are interested in doing, but I think to succeed in the defense space, you have to …”
Opinion
F-35 fighters are merely incremental improvements compared to autonomous systems
“The ability to use autonomous systems is, in effect, like a new way of operating, whereas, you know, F-thirty-five and all these were sort of Incremental improvements to, like, a conventional way we've been fighting for quite a long time.”
Assertion Supported
Schimpf: Russia outproduces NATO in 155mm artillery munitions after two-year ramp
“Russia today is outproducing NATO on one five five munitions and took about two years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: The US lacks a strategic plan for supply preservation
“We have no strategic plan as a country for how we preserve supply in a catastrophic situation.”
Insight
Schimpf: Industrial capacity serves as a vital independent military deterrent
“Industrial production has a deterrence factor all itself, and that it is critical for winning a conflict.”
Assertion Supported
Schimpf: China has legally banned the export of magnet-making technology
“China has strategically kind of strangleholded that, you know, not only did they have the processing of those rare earths, but now they've exported, controlled, so they don't allow the export of magnet-making technology. That is now a restricted national techn…”
Opinion
Schimpf: China holds far greater industrial independence than the US
“China has definitively more industrial independence and the ability to continue production absent, you know, kind of like their choke points are quite a bit more, more mineral minimal, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: EPA non-attainment zone designations kill local manufacturing growth
“An area can be designated a non attainment zone that is over polluted on a certain pollutant. And so then going forward, the EPA says that any new construction requires to remediate that pollutant by any means available, not cost benefit, not that there is any…”
Opinion
Schimpf: Government grants to save uncompetitive legacy industrial giants will fail
“And that, that I think is where the US policy is, is landed on, where it's like, let's give grants to these industrial giants that everyone agrees are no longer Competitive, and we'll try to save them. And you're like, it is obviously not gonna work.”
Opinion
Schimpf: Xi Jinping prioritizes CCP preservation over economic growth
“The, he has demonstrated that he does not care if he harms the economy, if he believes it is in the interest of national security and preservation.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Next 30 years of defense tech relies on cheap autonomous systems
“So number one, the tech for the next 20 or 30 years was going to be like primarily how do you just have more cheap autonomous systems on the battlefield, just more sensors, just more information flowing in.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Military surveillance and strikes will soon achieve high automation levels
“Yeah, I, look, I think the mechanics of, okay, there's this airfield, and you want to go surveil it, and, like, take it you can do some strike, you can do some surveillance, you can do all these things. That, there will be a large degree of automation in that,…”
Assertion Supported
Schimpf: Sam Altman publicly committed OpenAI to supporting US national defense
“Sam especially has been very clear that he supports our war fighters and he cares about having the best minds in AI working on national security and like who better exists to work through these hard problems.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Anduril doesn't need government procurement reform to succeed
“Do I think it's necessary to change for us to be successful? Not really. Like, we're just going to play the game that they present.”
Assertion Contradicted
Schimpf: SpaceX received one-third of Boeing's Starliner funding
“I think SpaceX had a third the amount of money that Boeing was given to make Starliner work.”
