Prediction Held up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Sramek: California Forever city is designed for up to 400,000 residents

Jan Sramek · Rebuilding the California Dream · Mar 5, 2024 · at 11:09

Jan Sramek is the CEO of California Forever, a venture building a new master-planned city in Solano County, California.

0:00 / 0:20exact quote · 20.1s
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“And then imagine that it was a city for up to 400,000 people that was entitled and approved at once, and so you knew that for the next you knew that for the next 30 years, if this office is going to work and you'll be able to hire talent there, there'll be enough space for you to grow in for the next 30 years.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Jan Sramek

Assertion Partly supported
Sramek: Restrictive housing in major metros depresses US GDP by 14%
“Where they argued quite convincingly that if we built enough housing in the Bay, in New York, and a couple of other places, American GDP would be higher by 14% or more.”
Jan Sramek Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 8:14 Rebuilding the California Dream
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Sramek: California Forever homes will cost $1M vs $4-5M in Palo Alto
“And then imagine that instead of paying four or five million dollars for a mediocre home in Palo Alto or San Francisco, your employees would be able to buy a nice house for a million dollars.”
Jan Sramek Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 11:36 Rebuilding the California Dream
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Sramek: California Forever targets breaking ground in Solano County by 2027
“Our target is to break ground in twenty-twenty-seven. That is ambitious by California standards. A couple of things have to happen for that to be the case. But we're pretty optimistic that we would be able to do that.”
Jan Sramek Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 15:45 Rebuilding the California Dream
Disclosure
Sramek: California Forever purchased 60,000 acres in Solano County
“And we've purchased about 60,000 acres in that area.”
Jan Sramek Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 3:07 Rebuilding the California Dream
Opinion
Sramek: Bay Area-level innovation clusters have occurred only seven times in history
“I think what's happened in the Bay Area has happened maybe seven times in the history of the modern world, at least in the West. I think it happened in Florence, and Paris, and London, and New York, and Chicago, and maybe LA, and then it happened in the Bay Ar…”
Jan Sramek Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 5:25 Rebuilding the California Dream
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sramek: Solano County can become defense innovation foundry for 50 years
“We think that Solano County can become the foundry of American defense innovation for the next 50 years”
Jan Sramek Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 13:15 Rebuilding the California Dream
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