Prediction Not checkable as stated
Neumann: Companies prioritizing face-to-face interaction will win long-term
“I actually think if you look 10 years forward, the companies that are going to make the effort now to be face to face, now we can describe what face to face is, there are many ways to do it, but the companies that are actually going to do the face to face, I t…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2028
Neumann: Flow Parent Company Has Closed Fundraising for Outside Capital
“We talk about raising money for real estate funds. We're not talking about raising money for flow parent company that that door is closed.”
Insight
Neumann: Zoom cannot build company culture or create great companies
“You don't create memories on Zoom. And without memories, you don't create culture. And without culture, you don't create great companies.”
Assertion Supported
Neumann: a16z invested $350M into Flow
“Who are we to not want to meet each person that our partners, who not only gave us three hundred and fifty million dollars, but our real partners suggested?”
Insight
Neumann: Vertical integration is the only viable model for proptech
“Most prop tech companies come in and solve a point solution. They have this one solution, but then they need to take that solution, convince the landlords who are not even interested in buying anything because they're making money anyway, go to these old ERP s…”
Insight
Andreessen: Founders in public crises temporarily believe their negative press
“He goes, you know, the stage when you forgot everything you did and believe everything that was written about you. It's a stage. It will pass.”
Disclosure
Neumann says he did zero diligence on early WeWork investors
“And the answer was actually none. For my first investors. They came to me. I didn't know anything. I didn't know any better.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2025
Neumann: Flow will sell five buildings while retaining long-term management
“We will sell our five buildings. We will sell our first asset in a month and we'll keep a management deal for the unforeseeable future.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Neumann: Flow's Fort Lauderdale NOI grew 30% after takeover
“Our building in Fort Lauderdale NOI net operating income is 30% higher than when we took over it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Neumann: 90% of Flow's tenant inquiries come direct, bypassing brokers
“80% of most leases in, in South Florida come from brokers. 90% of all inbound into flow is direct to the direct to us, direct to the website.”
Opinion
Neumann: Paying traditional rent is the worst deal for young people
“I think that's probably the worst deal. A young person can have paying rent. Traditionally at the end of every month, you pay that rent. And the only feeling you have is I just threw the money away.”
Disclosure
Neumann: Flow now exclusively hires software engineers who want in-office work
“So let's say our engineers, we hire engineers that want to be in the office and the ones we hired before who weren't, We let them be wherever they were, because when they were hired, that was the deal that was made with them.”
Insight
Neumann: Great engineering teams are 30 people, not 300 or 3,000
“Great engineering teams, and Mark talks about this a lot, are 30 person teams. They're not 300, they're not 3000, and he's going to have the best 30 engineers on the planet.”
Assertion Partly supported
Neumann: US housing shortage expanded from 2 million to 6 million homes
“Before Corona, there were approximately two million homes missing in the U.S. Today the number is six million homes.”
Disclosure
Neumann: Flow vertically integrates management, technology, payments, and ownership
“One of the things Flo is doing, which also was an encouragement for Mark early on, we are the property manager. We are the technology. We are the brand. We're the payments company. Very important because we said it's 34% of our residents' full income wallet sp…”
Prediction Partly held up
Neumann: Over 70% of adults under 35 rent, and that will grow
“70% of thirty-five-year-olds and youngers are currently renters. They don't actually buy, and this number is not because of the interest rates that have been going up over the past six to 10 months. This is a number from 12 months ago. And we believe that that…”
Disclosure
Neumann: Flow founders matched Andreessen Horowitz's capital investment
“We contributed into this business at least as much as Andreessen contributed into this business”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Neumann: Reducing tenant churn to 40% yields 500 bps extra LP return
“If the user now enjoys their experience more and feels like they have a portion of the value and chooses to stay a little longer, and that average churn goes down from 50% to 40%, without getting too deep into the numbers, the NOI of the building will go up by…”
Assertion Partly supported
Neumann: Construction tech company ICON can build a home in four days
“There's a construction company here called Icon that's using technology that the government is going to need to partner with them at some point, because they have found ways to build a home In four days, that used to take, ah, that used to take a year and a ha…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Neumann: Flow will rely on partnerships rather than owning all assets
“I think for us at Flow, and this is another lesson from the past, we used to think, and I used to think we had to own everything. I think the category is so big that the only way we're going to achieve anything is through partnership, partnership with governme…”
Insight
Neumann: Communities either build something greater or devolve into mob mentality
“There are multiple kinds of communities. There are great communities when a group of people gets together to build something greater than themselves, and then there are communities, which we've seen, I think, more and more of, where there, you get to a mob men…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adam Neumann: AI helps dyslexic individuals write without spelling mistakes
“I have a lot of dyslexic friends now who keep, everyone keeps calling me about how they're using AI to write stuff because it's just, they're not making mistakes anymore because my kind of dyslexia, even when you do the auto, even if you need, when you did it …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Neumann says a16z spent six months before investing in Flow
“And it took six months from that point. A lot of people think that this happened fast. It didn't. It took six months from that point to the actual investment”
Disclosure
Neumann: Flow raised $300M Saudi fund from 33 local investors
“We raised it from actually 33 different investors. We put our own equity. We got debt from the local bank. We bought these five properties. It was about a billion SAR, which about three hundred million dollar fund.”
Adam Neumann