The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Marc Andreessen (14)Benedict Evans (13)David George (9)Ben Horowitz (8)Jared Isaacman (7)Dylan Patel (6)Alex Rampell (6)Frank Chen (5)Gavin Baker (4)Chris Dixon (4)Vijay Pande (3)Qasar Younis (3)
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1206 days left 2030-01-01
Chen: Bioengineered smart clothing will track health and guide runners by 2030
“This shirt is made out of spider silk, engineered by DNA. It's got sensors and actuators right in it, so the sensors pick up her health stats like temperature and EKG and heart rate, and it's got actuators so it can bumper on the wrists, right?”
Closed calls (15) the full record →
Chen: Bloomberg forecasts EV sales will match gas cars by 2038
“Bloomberg is forecasting, 2038 as the year where electric cars reach parity in terms of sales with gas burning cars, and then they never look back. That will be the year of peak gas car production, 2038.”
Freescale: Electronics and software will be 50% of car costs by 2030
“Freescale, a semiconductor company, has already forecast that by 2030, 50% of the total cost of manufacturing a car will go to electronics and software providers as opposed to the traditional metal class rubber providers.”
Chen: Smart toilets in the 2030s will monitor health via urine analysis
“Now, it doesn't look like it's changed much, but like most other things in her house, this has become a smart toilet. It measures 10 properties of her urine, including glucose, and it looks for health problems before they become actual health problems.”
Chen: Custom apparel design research will be automated within hours by 2030s
“In the 20 thirties, this is going to be automated with software in a matter of hours.”
Chen: EV manufacturing costs will match gas cars by 2025 without subsidies
“Most analysts assume that electric cars will be as cheap to produce as gas-powered cars with no government subsidies by twenty-twenty-five.”
Chen: Post-quantum cryptography will be standardized in mid-2020s
“And the hope is that we'll standardize sometime in the mid-twenty-twenties, so we can all continue to shop online, even when there are quantum computers that can brute force the encryption keys we currently use.”
Chen: Autonomous EV fleets will drive most global miles within years
“In particular, I believe that in a handful of years, we're gonna be driven around in electric cars rather than driving around in our own gas-powered cars. In other words, most of the miles driven on the planet will shift to self-driving electric car fleets as …”
Chen: Solid-State LiDAR Costs Will Drop From $75,000 to $250
“The good news is we're headed rapidly towards making that thing solid state. In other words, no moving parts. It's going from 75,000 dollars to 250 dollars.”
Frank Chen: Self-driving safety will be judged by accidents per million miles
“And at the end of the day, what we're gonna judge cars on is Accidents per million miles driven, right? Just like you drudge humans.”
Chen: Deep learning will outperform trained radiologists within five years
“It takes five years to train a radiologist, and in five years, deep learning will get better results than a trained radiologist, so we should stop training them right now.”
Chen: Full applications will eventually run directly inside Apple's iMessage
“It's only a matter of time before you get a full on application in there.”
Chen: Oil majors will acquire EV charging networks to hedge demand
“So expect to see many more deals like this where Shell buys an electric charging network as a hedge against future petroleum demand dropping.”
Chen: Cyber loss coverage will be a fastest-growing insurance category
“And so this is going to be one of the fastest growing categories of an entirely new type of insurance, which is I will insure you against cyber losses.”