The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Marc Andreessen (14)Benedict Evans (13)David George (9)Ben Horowitz (8)Jared Isaacman (7)Dylan Patel (6)Alex Rampell (6)Frank Chen (5)Gavin Baker (4)Chris Dixon (4)Vijay Pande (3)Qasar Younis (3)
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Next up (7)
749 days left 2028-10-01
Andreessen: Producing full-length movies on laptops will be viable within five years
“It ought to be possible here within a couple years you know, to make entire full-length movies, you know, basically on your laptop, completely produced, you know, with, like, whatever actors superimposed into the thing, like, a couple years I don't know, I'd s…”
838 days left 2028-12-29
Andreessen: Wearable sensors will predict heart attacks within 5 to 10 years
“I think we'll have a full complement of medical grade sensors on, you know, on our bodies in a way that we have chosen to over the next five or 10 years. And I think we're, I think we'll get to the point where we're gonna be able to do things like predict hear…”
1037 days left 2029-07-16
1509 days left 2030-10-31
2689 days left 2034-01-23
4490 days left 2038-12-29
Andreessen: Winning tech companies in 20 years will be 100x larger than Google
“The winning companies, you know, the winning entrepreneurial companies 20 years from now that win are going to be Staggeringly large. Like, they're going to be like, I don't know, 10 or a hundred times the size of Google and Facebook.”
13939 days left 2064-11-11
Andreessen: Future top tech companies will almost certainly be new startups
“The expectation of Detroit is that 50 years from now the three big car companies will be Ford, GM, and Chrysler, right? The expectation of Silicon Valley is the opposite. Like we don't know who the big three tech companies are going to be, but they're almost c…”
Closed calls (19) the full record →
Andreessen: Global smartphone adoption will soon reach 6 to 7 billion people
“We're at the point now, three billion smartphones on its way to six, seven billion on the planet. We're going to be able to connect everybody. We're going to be able to get, over time, we're going to be able to get everybody all the things that I went through,…”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow non-filmmakers to produce full feature films
“In this last couple weeks with the new version of Sora and a lot of these other new things that are coming out, AI is going to make a whole new kind of filmmaker possible to exist for the first time, which is the filmmaker with no visual skill, right, or acces…”
Andreessen: Paul Thomas Anderson's new Leonardo DiCaprio film will lose $120M
“So anyway, it, it's gonna do reasonably well because, you know, because it has Leo, but it's still gonna lose like a hundred, hundred and twenty million dollars are, you know, the estimates that I'm hearing, which is, you know, a pretty, pretty big loss you kn…”
Andreessen: Generative AI will allow every screenplay to be rendered as video
“Most, look, oh, look, most people who write a Hollywood screenplay never see it produced. They never see it on screen. Right. And now all of a sudden, like all of those screenplays could be produced. Right. And turned into, you know, maybe not a movie that's c…”
Andreessen: AI detection software in schools will fail and falsely accuse students
“There are various attempts by companies to do like AI detectors now. You know, was this text written by AI and schools are actually starting to use that. And I think we can definitively, that will not work. Yeah. So what we can tell, there's already been cases…”
Andreessen: AI will allow actors to scan themselves into 3D environments
“These systems and all the variations that are coming up you know, the capabilities are going to become available over the next few years, including, you know, rendering video, you know, we're going to get to the point now where like, for example, an actor is g…”
Andreessen: Screenwriters will use AI to render full movies within years
“What's going to happen is they're going to use AI to be better writers and to write a lot more material. And by the way, if you're a Hollywood screenwriter, like all of a sudden, you're going to be able to use AI at some point in the next few years to actually…”
Andreessen: Oppenheimer will top $1 billion and sweep the Oscars
“Look, Oppenheimer, I think is going to top a billion dollars in the box office and is like, you know, a fantastic success and is going to sweep the Oscars and so forth.”
Andreessen: Patients presenting GPT query results will force doctors to adopt AI
“And by the way, patients using GPT, if it hasn't started, it's going to start imminently. So, so, so, so the patients are going to show up with the results of GPT queries, and the doctors are going to have to respond to that, and so they're going to end up bei…”
Andreessen: Software developers will earn higher salaries due to AI productivity
“If anything, actually, what's gonna happen is the programmers are gonna get, the programmers are gonna be higher paid because they're gonna be higher productivity.”
Andreessen: Major Cloud Providers Will Soon Offer AI as a Service
“We think all the major cloud providers are going to be providing AI as a service, and they're going to really radically reduce the amount of technical knowledge you need to apply AI, and so that plays very well to the startups.”
Andreessen: Every person globally will own a smartphone by decade's end
“So the big thing happening in the world right now is the smartphone, and the significance of the smartphone is, for the first time in human history, we're going to get a computer in everybody's hands, and by everybody, I mean everybody on the planet and by eve…”
Andreessen: 5 to 7 billion people will own smartphones by 2020
“And this is the thing I've been talking a lot about that people occasionally get angry about, because they think it won't Can't possibly come true, but I'm convinced it's going to come true, which is I think everybody on the planet by the end of the decade is …”
Andreessen: Legislative reform of the Bayh-Dole Act is not happening soon
“I think a really good reform would be to just eliminate that law and let universities make these decisions on their own. But that's not happening anytime soon.”
Andreessen predicts VR will project realistic courtside experiences for sports events
“They will be able to project the basketball game into VR in a way where it's gonna be like you're sitting right there at the side, on the side of the court.”
Andreessen: Wave of shareholder lawsuits will follow undisclosed corporate security breaches
“I think this will be endless litigation. I think that, I think actually this is going to be a whole wave of shareholder litigation that's going to follow from this, because as far as I can tell, there may be formal, there may be legal requirements for disclosu…”
Andreessen predicts WhatsApp, iPhone, and Android will reach 1 billion users
“And then like WhatsApp is going to do it, and then there's going to be a whole bunch of others. And I, you know, iPhone is going to do it, and Android is going to do it.”
Andreessen: Cloud AI Supercomputing Access Will Cost $1 Within a Year
“You get what I think in a year is going to be very common. These sort of AI supercomputing chips with the AI algorithms in the cloud available to anybody for a dollar. Right, and so there's going to be this massive deflation of hardware cost on, on that side.”
Andreessen: No tech security policy progress will happen under Obama administration
“I think that I think nothing will happen under this, as far as I can tell, nothing will happen under this administration. I think whoever is the next president and whoever the next set of national security officials have a big opportunity on this.”