The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Marc Andreessen (14)Benedict Evans (13)David George (9)Ben Horowitz (8)Jared Isaacman (7)Dylan Patel (6)Alex Rampell (6)Frank Chen (5)Gavin Baker (4)Chris Dixon (4)Vijay Pande (3)Qasar Younis (3)
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898 days left 2029-02-28
Dixon: Major AI copyright rulings will take three to five years
“Similar thing with like New York times open AI lawsuit, you know, you're going to have potentially copyright important decisions that have effects on huge economic effects. Decided by judges three to five years from now who are interpreting, you know, hundred …”
Closed calls (16) the full record →
Dixon: People will make AI-generated feature films within two years
“In two years, you'll have people making feature-length films.”
Dixon: VCs will not fund third-party tools for closed platforms
“You will not see any VC. We have not funded. No one will fund an anti-spam solution for Twitter or Facebook.”
Dixon: NFTs and digital goods will regain mainstream popularity
“I think another interesting area is it's fall, it's kind of out of fashion at the moment, but I think we'll come back is NFTs or you know, digital goods.”
Dixon: Ethereum upgrade will 100x capacity and drop fees below a penny
“There's an Ethereum upgrade happening in three weeks, four, eight, four, four, which is going to Pro like basically a hundred X, the improvement of Ethereum L two's, which are the main way of scaling Ethereum today. And you get sort of sub penny transaction co…”
Dixon: Smartphone users will hit 5 billion as hardware drops to $3
“You can get a 15 dollar Android phone now. That will come down. You'll be able to get a three dollar phone. It'll probably be like Benedict Evans, who works with us, comes up, he does all these studies on this. It'll be, there'll be something, there's like thr…”
Dixon: Cable TV bundle economics will collapse in the near future
“And the economics too, like the, you know, like the cable bundle is going to break at some point, I think soon, right? But at some point, like the economics will, like fundamentally, like it will no longer work to have the cable bundle. I think that's, Relativ…”
Dixon: Sugar will be the biggest killer of this generation
“Sugar is the new smoking. It's going to you know, kill, it's going to be by far the biggest killer of this generation.”
Dixon: A $300 standalone 4K VR headset is four years away
“We're seeing, I think it's accelerate, it's accelerating to the sort of Holy Grail headset, which is whatever, let's call it a 300 dollar standalone device with positional tracking and hand tracking and four K per eye or something like, let's call that the Hol…”
Dixon: Stablecoins Will Become Prominent Within Two Years, Driving Mainstream Adoption
“In my mind, this is one of the really interesting things that, that I think will likely start to become more prominent over the next year or two. And could unlock a whole new wave of kind of applications and just broader mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency.”
Dixon: Stablecoins will drive broader mainstream crypto adoption within 1-2 years
“In my mind, this is one of the really interesting things that, that I think will likely start to become more prominent over the next year or two. And could unlock a whole new wave of kind of applications and just broader mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency.”
Chris Dixon: Television and sports programming will unbundle and move to mobile
“Video, you know, TV is going to move to the mobile phone. HBO has already gone unbundled. Sports is going to go unbundled.”
Dixon: Enterprise applications will lead consumer adoption in wearable tech
“I think there's a reasonable chance that you'll see the corporate use cases leading Like, unlike what we've seen over the last 15 years in technology, which is the consumer has led the enterprise. You know, the stuff you have at home on your iPhone and Gmail i…”
Dixon: VR headsets will soon scan surrounding rooms and overlay virtual objects
“VR will very soon sort of scan the room around you, and put you back in the room, and add things onto the room”
Dixon: Virtual reality will enter a hype-cycle trough in two years
“We're in the Gartner hype cycle and we're at the peak and there will be a trough of despond and that'll be in two years.”