The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

2open predictions

0due for another look

3closed calls →

109days to next prediction date

Everyone Marc Andreessen (14)Benedict Evans (13)David George (9)Ben Horowitz (8)Jared Isaacman (7)Dylan Patel (6)Alex Rampell (6)Frank Chen (5)Gavin Baker (4)Chris Dixon (4)Vijay Pande (3)Qasar Younis (3)

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Next up (2)

109 days left 2026-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026

Patel: Hyperscaler CapEx will reach $450B-$500B next year

“And my number is closer to, like, it's like four 5500 and that's based on, like, you know, all the research we do on, like, data centers and, like, tracking each individual data center in the supply chains, right?”

Dylan Patel Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 23:16 Dylan Patel on the AI Chip Race - NVIDIA, Intel & the US Government vs. China

1570 days left 2030-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030

Patel: AI data centers will consume 10% of US electricity by 2030

“Even by the end of the decade you know, the US will be like, 10% of our power will be AI data centers”

Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 46:27 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization

Closed calls (3) the full record →

Prediction Held up

Patel: OpenAI will soon monetize free users via shopping affiliate fees

“And OpenAI makes nothing off of that. But they very, they really, really will soon, right? And partially that's because Amazon blocks chat, but like, you know, there's a way to make money from shopping decisions, whether it's Booking flights or looking for ite…”

Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 6:55 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization

Prediction Held up

Patel: AWS year-over-year revenue growth will re-accelerate above 20%

“This is the lowest AWS revenue growth will be on a year-to-year basis. For at least the next year, right? And it's re-accelerating to north of 20% again because of all these massive data centers they have online with Tranium and GPUs, right?”

Dylan Patel Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 59:32 Dylan Patel on the AI Chip Race - NVIDIA, Intel & the US Government vs. China

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Patel: NVIDIA will hold over $100B in cash by late 2025

“The cash on their balance sheet keeps growing, and they're gonna have north of a hundred billion dollars of cash on their balance sheet by the end of this year, I think.”

Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 57:56 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization

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Closed calls (3) the full record →

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