Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from No Priors: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

930 assertions876 insights637 predictions464 opinions389 disclosures16 what-ifs

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Assertion Partly supported
Helberg: DeepSeek lied about compute capacity and distilled ChatGPT weights
“The main takeaways of how DeepSeq achieved the performance its performance was Incremental efficiency gains. They lied about their compute capacity because they have a billion dollar cluster, and they distilled ChatGPT's model weights.”
Jacob Helberg Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 23:52 No Priors Ep. 129 | With U.S. Under Secretary of State (E) Designate Jacob Helberg
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Prince: Prominent AI companies use state-hacker tactics to bypass scraping blocks
“In fact, some really prominent companies That do some very, very, very shady things where they basically say, absolutely, we follow the rules of the road, but when push comes to serve, if it turns out they're blocked, then all of a sudden they're doing a bunch…”
Matthew Prince Aug 7, 2025 ▶ 12:33 No Priors Ep. 126 | With Cloudfare CEO Matthew Prince
Assertion Supported
Caruso: Mayor Bass cut LAFD budget, leaving equipment mothballed in lots
“The city didn't even have enough equipment because they've underfunded the fire department for so long, and Mayor Bass cut even more out this last budget cycle That they had equipment mothballed in parking lots.”
Rick Caruso Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 7:48 No Priors Ep. 99 | With Rick Caruso
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stability AI Has More Compute Available Than Microsoft or Google
“The reality is we have more compute available to us than Microsoft or Google.”
Emad Mostaque May 3, 2023 ▶ 9:33 No Priors Ep. 3 | With Stability AI’s Emad Mostaque
Opinion
Taylor: Nuclear is a fake industry charging 100x margins
“Everywhere you look, it's a fake industry that has not been building anything for 40 years, and the little bit that they have been building, they're charging a 100 X margin on.”
Isaiah Taylor Aug 15, 2026 ▶ 47:29 How Nuclear Will Unlock Energy Abundance with Valar Atomics Founder Isaiah Taylor
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Overnight AI intelligence explosion unlikely due to test-time compute bottlenecks
“And I don't think we're headed to that world largely because of the fact that the models rely so much on large scale test time compute. In order to achieve their greatest intelligence. If you, if it requires so much test time compute to unlock the full capabil…”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 26:21 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Guo: Sam Altman stated OpenAI will support Model Context Protocol
“And Sam from OpenAI said, like, they're going to support it as well”
Sarah Guo Apr 3, 2025 ▶ 25:24 No Priors Ep. 109 | With Sarah and Elad
Assertion Contradicted
Mansour: Kalshi is first legal US prediction market platform
“CalShay is actually the first legal platform in the U.S. Where you can basically bet yes, no on any future questions.”
Tarek Mansour Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 0:51 No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour
Assertion Supported
Tan: President Trump asked him to resign over conflicts of interest
“Well, the most surprising that I don't learn from my previous job or even training is one day early morning, President Trump asking me to resign and a conflict of interest, and there's no exceptions.”
Lip-Bu Tan Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 2:02 Re-engineering the Semiconductor Supply Chain with Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan
Assertion Contradicted
Hodak: Science is the first to restore form vision in blind patients
“Nobody had previously ever been able to restore a form vision image in the mind's eye of a blind patient in this way.”
Max Hodak Aug 20, 2026 ▶ 8:44 From Restoring Sight to Reimagining the Brain, with Max Hodak

Open predictions the full timeline →

109days Guo: Someone Will Make Hundreds of Millions Trading Markets With LLMs Sarah Guo · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Liemandt expects hundreds of Texas sports academy schools next year Joe Liemandt · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Helberg: US CapEx is over 2% of GDP and will probably double next year Jacob Helberg · prediction date: 2026-12-31 168days Papermaster: AI compute supply constraints will disappear as AMD ramps production Mark Papermaster · prediction date: 2027-02-28

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Neil Tiwari 1 19 7 0 0 100%
Dylan Patel 1 16 7 0 0 100%
Sajith Wickramasekara 1 33 6 0 0 100%
Oriol Vinyals 1 21 6 0 0 100%
Karan Singhal 1 14 6 0 0 100%
Mati Staniszewski 1 20 5 0 0 100%
Dmitri Dolgov 2 20 5 0 0 100%
Matt Garman 1 18 5 0 0 100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“This is why I'm interested in the reasoning direction, because I think there's this whole other dimension. That people are not scaling right now, which is the amount of compute at, uh, at, at…”

“Now it seems that you're coming to a large legacy enterprise. They really want to adopt the ad because they have to, the problem is they don't know how to do it. They understand that their processes…”

“The preparedness frameworks and responsible scaling policies, they don't really account for the amount of tests I'm computed. They just say, okay, well, what's the capability of the model? The problem…”

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