Opinion
Taylor: Nuclear is a fake industry charging 100x margins
“Everywhere you look, it's a fake industry that has not been building anything for 40 years, and the little bit that they have been building, they're charging a 100 X margin on.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
Taylor: Valar Atomics will turn on a new reactor every few minutes
“And we will get it down to minutes. This company will get, we'll get to the point where we have a new reactor turning on every few minutes.”
Assertion Partly supported
Valar Is the Only Private Company to Ever Produce Nuclear Power
“This is the fifth new nuclear device to make power in the United States since the year 2000. Fowler is the only private company founded since the discovery of nuclear fission that has ever made nuclear power.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2036
Taylor: Valar Atomics could be worth $500B in 10 years
“And, you know, we're sitting here right now, you know, less than three years from the founding of the company, and I think if you look back at 10 years in 10 years from now, and, you know, Valor's worth five hundred billion, something like that you will be abl…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
Taylor: Nuclear Fission Will Make Energy 1,000 Times Cheaper
“I know that nuclear fission will make energy a thousand times cheaper than it is today. Somebody will do that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taylor: Valar Atomics Will Scale Fission to Make Energy 10x Cheaper
“We have nuclear reactors that are more manufactured than constructed and they're extremely safe. And we think the combination of these two things is going to allow us to scale nuclear fission and make energy 10 times cheaper for humanity.”
Insight
Taylor: Rebooting Nuclear Requires Shifting from Civil Infrastructure to Advanced Manufacturing
“If you're going to reboot nuclear and you're actually believe in, in the atomic energy century, which I absolutely do, it's probably not going to look like what it did in the sixties. It's not going to look like civil infrastructure. Because we're not that goo…”
Insight
Taylor: Manufactured SMRs Require Development Driven by Hardware Iteration
“What was missing is that people did not realize that you're going to have to pursue that model through hardware iteration. And that's where really where Valor is unique is that Yes, we believe in SMRs. We believe in reactors that are manufactured. But we also …”
Opinion
Taylor: Most Nuclear Startups Are Just Modeling and Simulation Companies
“So if you look at the nuclear industry outside of Valor, it's mostly a modeling and simulation industry. Like, when you think of a nuclear company, right, there's, like, nuclear companies out there that everyone knows the name of, and you kind of look under th…”
Disclosure
Taylor: Valar aims to build hundreds of thousands of nuclear reactors
“We want to make thousands of reactors, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands.”
Disclosure
Taylor: Valar will shut off all power and pumps after reactor scram
“Immediately after we scram, we're actually going to turn off the entire electrical supply to the plant. We're going to turn off the circulator. We're going to turn off the RCCS pump. Every safety system in this plant, we're going to shut off, and we're going t…”
Assertion Supported
Taylor: Nuclear energy causes fewer deaths per unit of power than solar
“Nuclear energy is the safest form of energy, empirically. If you look at the amount of power generated versus the amount of deaths it's even safer than solar, which is very strange, because how does someone die from solar? But actually, most solar is installed…”
Opinion
Taylor: TRISO helium-cooled reactor geometry is humanity's safest reactor design
“A triso-fueled, graphite-moderated, helium-cooled reactor of the geometry that we've built it here is just about as safe as humanity knows how to build a nuclear reactor.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Valar Built a $5M Nuclear Reactor Component In-House For $400K
“And we were quoted about five million dollars and we were told it would take about two and a half years to build. And so we said, well, all right, maybe I'd be willing to pay five million dollars, but I'm certainly not going to wait two and a half years. And s…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taylor: Valar Atomics will reach fifth reactor while competitors seek debt financing
“We are willing to go build reactors on equity balance sheet because that's going to allow us to prove it years ahead of anybody else, right? Where, where our competitors are still trying to convince, you know fundamentally risk averse you know, financers to fi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taylor: AI and robotics will make energy the sole cost of goods
“When we figure out AI and robotics that allows us to do semi-autonomous manufacturing, energy will become the cost of all things, right?
The cost of buying a thing will become the cost of energy used to make it.”
Assertion Supported
Valar Built and Turned On Reactor Under DOE Authority via EO 14301
“So the reactor that's behind us here was turned on under an executive order. It was EO one four three oh one, which called for three advanced reactors to go critical on American soil by July fourth. And we built it under department of energy authority under th…”
Insight
Taylor: Minimizing accident consequence beats trying to engineer away low odds
“The alternative way that you can reduce risk is actually just reducing consequence, right? And we would argue that that's a much better way to reduce risk. Odds are stochastic, right? Even if you do an enormous amount of risk reduction on odds and you do all t…”
Disclosure
Taylor: Valar Atomics' safety basis proves zero radiation dose during total failure
“Our safety basis when we go to the regulator is everything in the plant has failed. Absolutely everything, right? ... In fact, it is safe. Right? So we have regulatory limits where we say, okay, in an accident scenario, you can't dose the public with radiation…”
Insight
Taylor: Nuclear energy requires mass-producing simple reactors like Toyota Camrys
“The problem of nuclear today is like the Toyota Camry problem, right? Like we don't want to make Lamborghinis. We want to make a very simple, very cheap, very safe reactor that we can make literally tens of thousands of. And actually that is going to make the …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taylor: Valar stacked its reactor bioshield in 42 hours versus 3 months normally
“We went from three months Which is what it would normally take to build a bioshield like this to, we stack this in about 42 hours.”
Assertion Supported
Taylor: Valar powered an NVIDIA Blackwell chip directly with a nuclear reactor
“We powered the first ever AI chip powered by a nuclear reactor. So we took an NVIDIA Blackwell super grateful to them for providing the system to us. And we connected it directly to our nuclear reactor.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taylor: Most nuclear companies will not reach scale even by 2035
“In fact, I would say even 2035, a lot of these companies are still not going to get there because they have the wrong mindset. They're not focused on hardware iteration, hardware execution, building the simplest and safest reactor that allows them to scale.”
Opinion
Isaiah Taylor: Nuclear fission reactors are significantly less complex than rocket engines
“It's nuclear, but it's like significantly less complicated than a rocket engine, for example.”