The Argument Index
Debate potential by speaker, the highest-scored statement each year, and the companies with the most bearish calls on record. All of it clickable, all of it playable.
People
Average debate potential by speaker
All 162 guests with 5 or more scored statements, ranked. 4 more have fewer than 5, too few for a fair average. Sort or filter below.
| # | Person | Avg debate potential | Statements scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Hsu Co-Founder and Core Investigator, Arc Institute | 3.2 | 5 |
| 2 | Joe Liemandt Principal, Alpha School | 3.14 | 22 |
| 3 | Mike Knoop Co-Founder & CEO, Ndea | 3.13 | 15 |
| 4 | Dylan Patel Founder & Chief Analyst, SemiAnalysis | 3.06 | 16 |
| 5 | Dan Hendrycks Executive Director, Center for AI Safety | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Rick Caruso Founder and Executive Chairman, Caruso | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Lina Khan Chair, FTC | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Bill Peebles Former Head of Sora, OpenAI | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Sriram Krishnan Senior Policy Advisor on AI, White House | 2.95 | 22 |
| 10 | Reid Hoffman Partner, Greylock | 2.95 | 20 |
| 11 | Ilya Sutskever Co-Founder and CEO, Safe Superintelligence Inc. | 2.89 | 18 |
| 12 | Kyle Vogt Founder & CEO, The Bot Company | 2.87 | 23 |
| 13 | Misha Laskin Co-founder & CEO, Reflection AI | 2.82 | 28 |
| 14 | Jakob Uszkoreit Co-Founder & CEO, Inceptive | 2.81 | 16 |
| 15 | Emad Mostaque Founder & CEO, Intelligent Internet | 2.75 | 24 |
| 16 | Aidan Gomez Co-founder & CEO, Cohere | 2.72 | 18 |
| 17 | Isaiah Taylor Founder and CEO, Valar Atomics | 2.71 | 31 |
| 18 | Matthew Prince Co-Founder & CEO, Cloudflare | 2.71 | 21 |
| 19 | Edwin Chen Founder & CEO, Surge AI | 2.68 | 19 |
| 20 | Eric Steinberger Co-Founder & CEO, Magic | 2.68 | 19 |
| 21 | Jared Kushner Founder & CEO, Affinity Partners | 2.67 | 15 |
| 22 | Alexandr Wang Chief AI Officer, Meta Platforms | 2.67 | 24 |
| 23 | Parker Conrad Co-founder & CEO, Rippling | 2.65 | 17 |
| 24 | Aravind Srinivas Co-founder & CEO, Perplexity AI | 2.65 | 23 |
| 25 | Mustafa Suleyman CEO, Microsoft AI | 2.64 | 25 |
| 26 | Frank Slootman Chairman, Snowflake | 2.63 | 27 |
| 27 | Denis Yarats Co-founder & CTO, Perplexity AI | 2.62 | 8 |
| 28 | Ankur Goyal Founder & CEO, Braintrust | 2.61 | 23 |
| 29 | Illia Polosukhin Co-Founder, NEAR Protocol | 2.6 | 20 |
| 30 | Nikesh Arora Chairman & CEO, Palo Alto Networks | 2.59 | 27 |
| 31 | CJ Desai President and CEO, MongoDB | 2.58 | 12 |
| 32 | RJ Scaringe Founder & CEO, Rivian | 2.57 | 14 |
| 33 | Melisa Tokmak Founder & CEO, Netic | 2.55 | 11 |
| 34 | Arthur Mensch Co-Founder & CEO, Mistral AI | 2.55 | 20 |
| 35 | Qasar Younis Co-founder & CEO, Applied Intuition | 2.54 | 13 |
| 36 | Andrej Karpathy Founder, Eureka Labs | 2.53 | 60 |
| 37 | Jensen Huang Founder and CEO, NVIDIA | 2.51 | 67 |
| 38 | Matei Zaharia Co-Founder and CTO, Databricks | 2.5 | 16 |
| 39 | Brendan Foody Co-Founder and CEO, Mercor | 2.49 | 35 |
| 40 | Jacob Helberg Under Secretary of State, U.S. Department of State | 2.48 | 42 |
| 41 | Mikey Shulman Co-Founder & CEO, Suno | 2.47 | 15 |
| 42 | Beyang Liu Co-founder & CTO, Sourcegraph | 2.47 | 17 |
| 43 | Maxim Bar Kogan Co-Founder and CEO, Onyx Security | 2.46 | 24 |
| 44 | Brett Adcock Founder & CEO, Figure AI | 2.45 | 20 |
| 45 | Suhail Doshi Founder & CEO, Playground | 2.44 | 16 |
| 46 | Winston Weinberg Co-founder and CEO, Harvey | 2.43 | 21 |
| 47 | Bret Taylor CEO & Co-Founder, Sierra | 2.43 | 14 |
| 48 | Tim Brooks Lead of Media Generation, Meta Superintelligence Labs | 2.43 | 7 |
| 49 | Noam Brown Research Scientist, OpenAI | 2.42 | 52 |
| 50 | Elias Torres Founder & CEO, Agency | 2.42 | 12 |
| 51 | Ryan Noon Co-Founder and Chairman, Material Security | 2.42 | 19 |
| 52 | Bill Clerico Founder & Managing Partner, Convective Capital | 2.41 | 22 |
| 53 | Mark Zuckerberg Founder & CEO, Meta | 2.4 | 10 |
| 54 | Ty Mitchell Co-founder & Managing Director, Akash Systems | 2.4 | 5 |
| 55 | Matt MacInnis Chief Product Officer, Rippling | 2.4 | 15 |
| 56 | Amjad Masad Co-founder & CEO, Replit | 2.4 | 20 |
| 57 | Brian Schimpf Co-Founder and CEO, Anduril Industries | 2.39 | 23 |
| 58 | Sridhar Ramaswamy CEO, Snowflake | 2.38 | 39 |
| 59 | Zach Lloyd Founder & CEO, Warp | 2.38 | 21 |
| 60 | Noubar Afeyan Founder & CEO, Flagship Pioneering | 2.38 | 16 |
| 61 | Thomas Dohmke Founder and CEO, Entire | 2.38 | 24 |
| 62 | Peter Chen Director of Applied Science, Amazon | 2.38 | 16 |
| 63 | Neil Tiwari Managing Director, Magnetar Capital | 2.37 | 19 |
| 64 | Ofir Ehrlich Co-Founder and CEO, Eon | 2.36 | 11 |
| 65 | Andrew Ng Managing General Partner, AI Fund | 2.36 | 25 |
| 66 | Harrison Chase Co-founder & CEO, LangChain | 2.36 | 14 |
| 67 | Kanjun Qiu Co-Founder and CEO, Imbue | 2.36 | 11 |
| 68 | Kevin Scott Chief Technology Officer, Microsoft | 2.36 | 25 |
| 69 | Edo Liberty Founder & Chief Scientist, Pinecone | 2.35 | 17 |
| 70 | Brian Armstrong Co-Founder & CEO, Coinbase | 2.34 | 32 |
| 71 | Joshua Meier Co-founder & CEO, Chai Discovery | 2.33 | 6 |
| 72 | Tuhin Srivastava Co-founder & CEO, Baseten | 2.32 | 34 |
| 73 | Satya Nadella Chairman and CEO, Microsoft | 2.32 | 28 |
| 74 | Daniel Nadler Founder and CEO, OpenEvidence | 2.32 | 22 |
| 75 | Ivan Zhao Co-founder & CEO, Notion | 2.31 | 16 |
| 76 | Scott Wu Co-founder & CEO, Cognition | 2.3 | 10 |
| 77 | Nima Alidoust CEO & Co-founder, Vevo Therapeutics | 2.29 | 7 |
| 78 | Fei-Fei Li Co-Founder and CEO, World Labs | 2.27 | 11 |
| 79 | Garry Tan President & CEO, Y Combinator | 2.26 | 19 |
| 80 | Rene Haas CEO, Arm | 2.26 | 23 |
| 81 | Howie Liu Co-Founder & CEO, Airtable | 2.25 | 12 |
| 82 | Karim Atiyeh Co-Founder, Ramp | 2.25 | 8 |
| 83 | Jack Dent Co-Founder, Chai Discovery | 2.23 | 13 |
| 84 | Eric Glyman Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Ramp | 2.22 | 9 |
| 85 | Guillermo Rauch Founder & CEO, Vercel | 2.22 | 18 |
| 86 | Zach Dell Co-Founder and CEO, Base Power | 2.21 | 14 |
| 87 | Tengyu Ma Assistant Professor, Stanford University | 2.21 | 19 |
| 88 | Emil Michael Under Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense | 2.2 | 30 |
| 89 | Arvind Jain Co-founder & CEO, Glean | 2.2 | 20 |
| 90 | Dmitri Dolgov Co-CEO, Waymo | 2.2 | 20 |
| 91 | Jared Quincy Davis Founder & CEO, Mithril | 2.2 | 20 |
| 92 | Dr. Percy Liang Director, Stanford CRFM | 2.2 | 20 |
| 93 | Lip-Bu Tan CEO, Intel Corporation | 2.19 | 21 |
| 94 | Jeremy Allaire Co-Founder & CEO, Circle | 2.19 | 21 |
| 95 | Ben Mann Co-Founder, Anthropic | 2.19 | 21 |
| 96 | Liam Fedus Co-founder and CEO, Periodic Labs | 2.18 | 17 |
| 97 | Jesse Zhang Co-Founder and CEO, Decagon | 2.18 | 33 |
| 98 | Chelsea Finn Co-Founder, Physical Intelligence | 2.17 | 23 |
| 99 | Lukas Biewald Co-founder & CEO, Weights & Biases | 2.17 | 18 |
| 100 | Simon Last Co-founder, Notion | 2.16 | 19 |
| 101 | Tarek Mansour Co-founder & CEO, Kalshi | 2.14 | 22 |
| 102 | Dylan Field Co-founder and CEO, Figma | 2.13 | 15 |
| 103 | Glenn Fogel CEO and President, Booking Holdings | 2.11 | 9 |
| 104 | Felix Ejeckam Co-Founder and CEO, Akash Systems | 2.11 | 9 |
| 105 | Jason Kelly Co-Founder and CEO, Ginkgo Bioworks | 2.11 | 9 |
| 106 | Alexander Taubman Co-founder & CEO, Long Lake Management | 2.09 | 11 |
| 107 | Josh Albrecht Co-founder & CTO, Imbue | 2.09 | 11 |
| 108 | Max Hodak Co-founder & CEO, Science Corporation | 2.08 | 25 |
| 109 | Andrew Feldman Co-Founder and CEO, Cerebras Systems | 2.08 | 40 |
| 110 | Pedro Franceschi Co-Founder and CEO, Brex | 2.07 | 15 |
| 111 | Sal Khan Founder & CEO, Khan Academy | 2.06 | 18 |
| 112 | Gabe Pereyra Co-Founder & President, Harvey | 2.05 | 20 |
| 113 | Oriol Vinyals Co-founder, Discovery Loop | 2.05 | 21 |
| 114 | Philipp Herzig Chief Technology Officer, SAP | 2 | 13 |
| 115 | David Baszucki Co-founder & CEO, Roblox | 2 | 19 |
| 116 | Eric Zelikman CEO & Co-founder, humans& | 2 | 7 |
| 117 | Pushmeet Kohli VP of Research, Google DeepMind | 2 | 7 |
| 118 | Brandon McKinzie O3 Team Member, OpenAI | 2 | 13 |
| 119 | Johnny Yu Co-Founder & CSO, Tahoe Therapeutics | 2 | 5 |
| 120 | Erik Bernhardsson Founder and CEO, Modal Labs | 2 | 15 |
| 121 | Eric Simons Co-Founder & CEO, StackBlitz | 2 | 19 |
| 122 | Albert Gu Cofounder, Cartesia | 2 | 8 |
| 123 | Noam Shazeer AI Scientist, OpenAI | 2 | 24 |
| 124 | Kawal Gandhi Applied AI Lead, Google Cloud | 2 | 10 |
| 125 | Devi Parikh Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Yutori | 2 | 11 |
| 126 | Olivier Pomel Co-Founder & CEO, Datadog | 2 | 19 |
| 127 | Kelvin Guu Principal Research Scientist, Google DeepMind | 2 | 16 |
| 128 | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton Co-Founder & CEO, Zipline | 1.96 | 23 |
| 129 | Sajith Wickramasekara Co-founder & CEO, Benchling | 1.94 | 33 |
| 130 | Matt Garman CEO, Amazon Web Services | 1.94 | 18 |
| 131 | Shyam Sankar CTO & EVP, Palantir Technologies | 1.94 | 16 |
| 132 | Karan Singhal Staff Software Engineer, Google Research | 1.93 | 14 |
| 133 | Alex Graveley Director, Comet, Perplexity AI | 1.93 | 15 |
| 134 | Bill McDermott Chairman and CEO, ServiceNow | 1.92 | 12 |
| 135 | Josh Goldman Co-Founder and President, KoBold Metals | 1.92 | 25 |
| 136 | Eric Mitchell Researcher, OpenAI | 1.89 | 9 |
| 137 | Mati Staniszewski Co-founder & CEO, ElevenLabs | 1.85 | 20 |
| 138 | Joshua Xu Co-Founder & CEO, HeyGen | 1.84 | 19 |
| 139 | Alex Rives Head of Science, Chan Zuckerberg Biohub | 1.83 | 6 |
| 140 | Priscilla Chan Co-Founder and Co-CEO, Chan Zuckerberg Initiative | 1.83 | 6 |
| 141 | Brian Halligan Co-Founder & Executive Chairperson, HubSpot | 1.83 | 23 |
| 142 | Dave Burke Advisor, Arc Institute | 1.8 | 5 |
| 143 | Alyssa Henry Former CEO, Square | 1.8 | 10 |
| 144 | Cristobal Valenzuela Co-founder & CEO, Runway | 1.8 | 15 |
| 145 | Luis von Ahn Founder & CEO, Duolingo | 1.79 | 19 |
| 146 | Mark Papermaster EVP & CTO, AMD | 1.78 | 18 |
| 147 | Clem Delangue Co-founder and CEO, Hugging Face | 1.76 | 21 |
| 148 | Daphne Koller Founder and CEO, insitro | 1.75 | 20 |
| 149 | Shiv Rao Founder & CEO, Abridge | 1.71 | 17 |
| 150 | Glen Coates Head of App Platform, OpenAI | 1.71 | 14 |
| 151 | Erik Allebest Co-founder and CEO, Chess.com | 1.7 | 23 |
| 152 | Laura Deming Co-Founder & CEO, Until | 1.67 | 12 |
| 153 | Rishi Mehta Researcher, Anthropic | 1.67 | 6 |
| 154 | Isa Fulford Researcher, OpenAI | 1.62 | 16 |
| 155 | Karan Goel Co-founder & CEO, Cartesia | 1.62 | 8 |
| 156 | Laurent Sartran Member of Technical Staff, Anthropic | 1.6 | 5 |
| 157 | Fidji Simo Co-founder, Metrodora Institute | 1.6 | 20 |
| 158 | Stanley Tang Co-Founder & Head of DoorDash Labs, DoorDash | 1.57 | 7 |
| 159 | Andy Fang Co-Founder, DoorDash | 1.5 | 6 |
| 160 | Clara Shih CEO, Salesforce AI | 1.46 | 13 |
| 161 | Matej Balog Research Scientist, Google DeepMind | 1.43 | 7 |
| 162 | Emily Glassberg Sands Head of Information, Stripe | 1.29 | 17 |
Companies
The most bearish calls
Debate potential is an AI score of how much a statement invites disagreement. Bearish counts tally what was said about a company on the show; they describe the conversation, not the company. Every count opens to the exact tape. full disclaimer →
All 161 companies, funds and products with at least one bearish claim on the record.
Highest debate potential, by year
2026
2025
Caruso: Mayor Bass cut LAFD budget, leaving equipment mothballed in lots
“The city didn't even have enough equipment because they've underfunded the fire department for so long, and Mayor Bass cut even more out this last budget cycle That they had equipment mothballed in parking lots.”
Prince: Prominent AI companies use state-hacker tactics to bypass scraping blocks
“In fact, some really prominent companies That do some very, very, very shady things where they basically say, absolutely, we follow the rules of the road, but when push comes to serve, if it turns out they're blocked, then all of a sudden they're doing a bunch…”
2024
Mensch: AI base models should know everything and use modular guardrails
“Assuming that the model should be well behaved is, I think, a wrong assumption. You need to make the assumption that the model should know everything. And then on top of that, have some modules that moderate and guardrail the model.”