Prediction Held up
Dohmke: Copilot will resolve GitHub issues via draft PRs in 2025
“But we think, you know in 20, 25, we get into a place where you can assign a GitHub issue, a well-defined GitHub issue to a co-pilot and then it starts creating a draft pull request and it outlines the plan and then it works through its plan and you can, simil…”
Opinion
Dohmke: AI agents remain far from replacing median developers in systems thinking
“I think that's the part where we're far away from agents actually being good enough to take a very rough idea and break it down to small pieces without you as developer or as architect, or even when planning your travel, constantly getting questions back of wh…”
Opinion
Dohmke: Software teams will always require human review before production merges
“And while we don't believe that goes away from a pure security and trust perspective, you always want to have, you know, Another human in the loop before you merge code into production.”
Insight
Dohmke: Programming languages remain the essential deterministic layer below AI prompts
“We have the machine language layer, you know, which is Python or Ruby or Rust, right? Those are effectively abstractions of the chipset and the machine instruction set. And that's the last layer that's deterministic, right? Like programming language inherently…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: AI will converge product management, design, and engineering roles
“I think tomorrow you're going to, as a designer, type effectively the same specification as a product manager and you have, you know, an AI to render the code for the wireframes and then apply, you know, grounding out of your design system to make it look like…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Developer tool differentiation will come from UX, not models
“And so I think the differentiation is going to come from both, you know, where the developer gets the most The best experience and doing that day to day, right? Like where can I, you know, start my morning, pick up, you know, something I want to work on, explo…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Completely personalized, natural-language software will arrive in five years
“I think that future that will happen
in the next five years, for sure.
It's just the question is how, how good this job is going to be, and can I just tell it, Springbank is coming up, same hotel, same family, you know, say, and it books me the trip, and the …”
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Copilot yields 25-28% end-to-end developer productivity gains
“And then we're talking about, you know, 25, 28% productivity gains on, on the end to end 55% or higher on, on the coding task.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: AI software pricing will be compute-based rather than human-salary equivalent
“I think it's going to be compute based or some unit that's, you know, a derivative of,
Compute as a metric.”
Opinion
Dohmke: Open-source AI innovation equals proprietary model innovation
“As much as there's innovation on proprietary models and software, there is as equal amount of innovation in open source.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: AI dev tools will remain a multi-vendor ecosystem
“In AI, I think we're going to see the same thing. We're going to see a stack or universe of companies that offer different parts of the software development life cycle, and developers pick the one that you know, they like the most, that they have experience wi…”
Insight
Dohmke: AI agent supply is infinite and constrained only by GPU capacity
“Human developers are expensive because there's limited supply agents will have infinite supply that, that will only be limited by the amount of compute capacity GPUs available in data centers.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Software prices will deflate as certain categories become free
“I think we're going to see deflation of software prices. And so I think it's a mix of both, you know, some things we won't pay for it anymore.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Future programming languages will be closer to human natural language
“I think there's going to be a next programming language after Python and TypeScript and Rust and Rust in itself, you know wasn't really a thing five years ago. And then, so there's going to be more languages that are probably closer to human language and to be…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Improved model reasoning will push SWE-bench scores near 100%
“As the models get better in reasoning we're going to get closer to a hundred percent of this VBench, which is that benchmark out of 12 repos open source Python repos a team in Princeton identified 2200 or so issue pull request pairs. Effectively, all the model…”
Insight
Dohmke: AI roadmaps cannot be planned more than two months ahead
“Like the market is moving so fast. We're literally sitting on an exponential curve of innovation where it's hard to keep up and you can't really plan more than a month or two ahead of time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Developers spend only 2-3 hours daily writing code
“But if you actually look in the developer life the day to day, you know, in, in, in most companies that's maybe two or three hours of your day that you're actually writing code. And then you're spending an equal amount of time of reviewing code of your coworke…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2035
Dohmke: Developers will maintain legacy PHP and COBOL for a decade
“And so we are still I think for like a decade or so at least going to have software developers that work in, in lots of old school, you know, PHP code and COBOL code and all that stuff.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Specialized code models were replaced by general base models
“And then we got this model that then eventually became Codex which was this code-specific, you know, version of the model. And today that, you know No longer really exists, right? Like today, everybody sits on top of one of these more powerful base models.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Coding competitions must assume developers are using AI
“As these AI models get better, these competitions of who's the best hacker or coder Are going to have to move to a whole different level where you assume that the developer is using AI to solve the challenges because otherwise it's going to be way too easy.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Dohmke: Non-coding GitHub PM used AI agent to merge real pull request
“We actually, you know, when we recorded the demo for the Padawan project we actually had one of our product managers use an issue and the agent create the progress themselves. Right. A PM that usually doesn't code and doesn't write code in the code base was ab…”
Disclosure
Dohmke: GitHub manages all internal functions in GitHub repositories
“Everything that, that we do in the company, including, you know, the, our legal terms and our HR policies and Or product management, sales sales enablement, all these functions are in GitHub issues and GitHub discussions and GitHub repos.”
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: GitHub Copilot preview generated 25% of code early on
“Soon after we launched Copilot Preview it already wrote like, 25% of the code.”
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Copilot reached 77,000 organizations and 1.8M paid users
“I think the last number we shared was a few quarters ago, 77,000 organizations using Copilot and back then the number of paid users was 1.8 million paid users.”
