The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Isaiah Taylor (3)Sarah Guo (2)Sal Khan (2)Qasar Younis (2)Neil Tiwari (2)Max Hodak (2)Josh Goldman (2)Jensen Huang (2)Brian Armstrong (2)Thomas Dohmke (1)Scott Wu (1)Noam Brown (1)
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109 days left 2026-12-31
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Voice conversational AI will pass the Turing test within a year
“I think this is, is good for customer support or customer experience, but it's still a way away from like conversation like we have and like passing that Turing test. So I think this is still like a, at least a year, like within a year. And then you will have …”
474 days left 2027-12-31
474 days left 2027-12-31
693 days left 2028-08-06
Gil: Startup valuations will rise and financing will ease over two years
“And so I do think we're going to see a ongoing rise in valuations most likely over the next year or two, much more than we've seen today. And obviously there'll be some great things in there and there'll be a bunch of stuff that doesn't deserve it, but I actua…”
704 days left 2028-08-17
795 days left 2028-11-16
Albrecht: Users will create bespoke agents via natural language within five years
“And I think five years from now we're going to have something where it's not just you know, okay we have a scheduling bot we have this other thing but we really have these more general more robust systems where Each of us can individually say, like, I want a t…”
1373 days left 2030-06-17
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Huang: AI compute will follow hyper Moore's Law over the next decade
“Over the next 10 years our hope is that we could double or triple performance every year at scale. Not at chip. At scale. And to be able to, therefore, drive the cost down by a factor of two or three, drive the energy down by a factor of two, three every singl…”
3054 days left 2035-01-23
Clerico: Firefighting drones will perform rapid wildfire attacks within a decade
“So in my opinion, I think over the next five to 10 years, we will see exactly what you're talking about drones to do rapid initial attack. So you see you know, you get an ignition that's detected from a camera or satellite. And drones are pre-positioned can ge…”
3103 days left 2035-03-13
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Taylor: Valar Atomics could be worth $500B in 10 years
“And, you know, we're sitting here right now, you know, less than three years from the founding of the company, and I think if you look back at 10 years in 10 years from now, and, you know, Valor's worth five hundred billion, something like that you will be abl…”
Closed calls (40) the full record →
Wickramasekara: GLP-1s will probably be the best-selling drugs of all time
“And then all of a sudden, like we have this category defining medicine that's going to go on to probably be the best selling drug of all, all time.”
Dell: AI workloads will concentrate heavily in Texas and the Gulf
“I think the highly energy intense workloads will converge around the low cost electricity places. You'll see a lot of that go to the Gulf. You'll see a lot of that go to Texas. And you're seeing that now, right, with Stargate and Abilene and all the big produc…”
Elad Gil predicts future generations will inevitably date AI bots
“You know, there's a CEO of a well-known AI company who actually, this is like his dinner question where he'll just ask people around the table, what proportion do you think that your kids will at least at one point in their life date an AI bot or have them as …”
Most enterprises will eventually stop building their own AI models
“Most companies are not going to build their own models over time. They might tweak them a little bit, but I think a lot of companies are going to build, are going to use the applications that use the software and the models underneath.”
Ma: RAG Will Remain Much Cheaper Than Long-Context Windows
“My prediction is that reg will be much cheaper than long contacts going forward.”
Polosukhin: Platforms will adopt SSL-style cryptographic locks for content verification
“I think one of the imported pieces will be kind of a green lock, similar to SSL transition on the content, right? Like as you go to YouTube, as you go to you know, New York times, you actually will see that like, Hey, this content been signed by this party and…”
Sal Khan predicts most teachers will use AI for grading by 2024
“五年後にはほとんどの教師が生成案を使って授業計画、採点、進行状況報告、評価基準作成を行うのは安全だと思います。小さい、すでに来年の後半にそれが実現する可能性があります。”
Khan: Students will video conference with AI tutors within five years
“And then I think in three to five years, yeah, you're going to be able to video conference with your tutor, which then makes it like a real thing that you can have a long journey with.”
Generative Image Models Will Soon Achieve 25 Frames Per Second
“With the additional breakthroughs that are coming through, it'll be 25 frame images a second. That's a hundred times speed up over a hundred times just from getting it out there and people interested in doing that.”
ChatGPT-Level AI Models Will Run Locally on Smartphones by 2028
“You will see ChatGPT level models running on the edge on smartphones in five years, which will be crazy.”
Huang: Language-driven robotic foundation models will be discovered
“I have every confidence that a robotic foundation model will be discovered, and that, that through, through expressing yourself using human language you could cause a mechatronic system of almost different types of limbs and, you know, agility to be able to fi…”
Sarah Guo predicts Apple will create interfaces for running local AI models
“And so I think there's a lot of developer demand, and I think it, like, foreshadows we should see Apple creating interfaces for running models locally as part of their ecosystem. That's my general prediction.”
Gil: VC Funding Will Shift from LLMs to Specialized Domain Models
“I think on the foundation model side, from a venture capital or angel investor perspective I think we're going to see fewer new language models But we should see models in a lot of other areas and, you know, we have new things happening in music. We talked a l…”
Gil: Foundation Models Will Achieve Physics and Math Breakthroughs
“I think you know, a third area is the next set of foundation models are going to come, and by that I don't mean the Neolabs and the Next Gen LLM, which of course will happen, but I mean, physics, materials, science progress by models, math progress. And I thin…”
Guo: Alternative AI Architectures Like SSMs Will Be Tested
“And like, there's enough capital out there to test them, be they like diffusion or SSMs or whatever. And that's going to happen this next year.”
Masad: Commercial AI providers will not release completion models going forward
“Now all the models are chat models. You know, they're not going to be releasing any completion model going forward. And so if you want to build a completion based product, it's actually fairly difficult to do it using commercial APIs.”
Vinyals: Context Windows Will Grow 10x for Commodity and SOTA AI in 1-2 Years
“I expect, I mean, order of one, two years, you might see, wow, we went another order of magnitude from both state of the art and, of course, what's considered a commodity. So I'm pretty certain about this.”
Laskin: AI models will beat humans at competitive coding within a year
“Code forces and other competitive coding environments. The models are almost best in the world, and within the year will probably be just the best in the world.”
Koller: Early Alzheimer's drug approvals will increase available brain MRI data
“I think there will be even more now with the approval of some of the earliest Alzheimer's drugs, because it's going to be part of the process by which people are either selected to receive the drug or not, depending on whether their brain MRI shows certain cer…”
Singhal: Epic will likely partner with foundation models for clinical documentation
“I think that is also going to be something where players like Epic are going to be able to partner with existing models and I think potentially deliver real value there.”
Elad Gil predicts AI context windows will exceed 10 million tokens soon
“And then it seems lucky that a lot of people will end up in the ten million plus range in the next a year or two or, you know, some reasonable timeframe ahead.”
Zaharia: Core LLM technology is commoditizing rapidly and becoming much cheaper
“The thing I can say for sure, especially, and Dolly and like other, you know, results like this really highlighted is it does seem that the core tech is getting commoditized very quickly. So just, if you just want to run, you know, something like today's chat …”