Opinion
Michael: Boston Dynamics made less AI progress than Tesla Optimus
“Which is why Boston Dynamics didn't make as much progress as Optimist did in the AI. You know, the things that started later on robotics just worked better because they were more AI infused.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2036
Michael: Autonomous systems could consume 30% of defense budget within 10 years
“So, you know, in 10 years, it wouldn't surprise me if 20, 30% of the budget is, is, is spent on those kinds of systems.”
Disclosure
Michael: DoD Deployed DOGE Recruits to Build Defense AI Initiatives
“The talent they brought into every department could then be deployed on other projects like the AI action plan that we did with Gen AI. So, because they were already, like, Elon chose technically sophisticated people. There weren't all engineers, some were law…”
Opinion
Michael: US defense industrial base was unready for recent conflicts
“Defense industrial base sort of wasn't ready to provide what's necessary for the threat environment. And if you think about threat environment, what we've done in Iran, what we've done in Venezuela what we've done with the Houthis, like all just in one year, r…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Michael: China's military buildup is the largest in world history
“The buildup, the military buildup in China is the biggest military buildup in world history.”
Assertion Contradicted
Michael: SpaceX, Anduril, and Palantir all sued the Pentagon for first contracts
“SpaceX and Anderil and Palantir all had to sue the Department of War for their first contract.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Michael: DoD is Close to Making the Defense 'Valley of Death' Minimal
“So all these funding cycle mechanisms are a way to get at that valley of death. And I think we've got, we're really close to sort of pinching, pinching that. Into, to being very minimal if it exists at all.”
Disclosure
Emil Michael: Golden Dome is exploring intercepting targets from space
“For Golden Dome, which you've heard about, we're looking at how to take things out from space, which is a compelling, really complex, but interesting proposition.”
Assertion Supported
Michael: The US relies on China for drone brushless motors
“A brushless motor goes into a drone. We're dependent on China for brushless motors.”
Assertion Contradicted
Michael: The US does not manufacture fiber optic cables domestically
“I mean, you know, fiber optic cable, we don't make fiber optic cables in this country. Fiber optic, you know, basic fiber, which they're using in the Ukraine and Russia war to do drones because they're jamming and all that, and we use for telecom and all that.”
Disclosure
Michael cuts Department of War critical tech areas from 14 to six
“So I cut them down to six after studying and I made it more action oriented. So we put sprints behind them like you would an engineering team.”
Disclosure
Michael: Department of War will not build proprietary foundation AI models
“The number one is applied AI. Because we're not building a foundation model at the DOW because there's being hundreds of billions of dollars being spent by the private sector on this. So how do I adapt or use what's being developed in the private sector and ap…”
What-if
Emil Michael: Russia-Ukraine casualties would be far higher without drone warfare
“Without the drone warfare in, in that area of the world, you probably would have seen way more human casualties. It's already devastating. It would have been way more devastating.”
Assertion Supported
Michael: Tiger team launched GenAI.mil to 3 million personnel in 60 days
“I had some like Databricks engineers, former Databricks engineers, former Meta engineers, former AWS people, Tiger team, 60 days good, great collaboration from Gemini from Google's Gemini, who already works at Department of Warsets, some familiarity with our a…”
Disclosure
Michael: Department of War deploying Gemini 3.0 and xAI's Grok
“Three point oh is coming in a couple of weeks. Then we're going to do Grok. With XAI and we'll see where we get to with the other two.”
Disclosure
Michael: a16z's Scott Kupor Deployed US Tech Force for College Grads
“And then we have this U S tech force that, that Scott Kapoor from Andreessen Horowitz is deployed. And we were hoping to get thousands of people out of college for a two year stint, sort of make it you know, this is your service to the country as a technologis…”
Disclosure
Michael: DoD is replacing 300-page RFPs with open problem statements
“We're going to change the way we buy the way we do RFPs. Even like we, for an RFP, it used to be, Here's a 300 page requirement document. Please fill it out and we'll decide if you win or lost. Now we say, well, here's our problem. We're trying to achieve this…”
Assertion Partly supported
Michael: Office of Strategic Capital has $200B at Treasuries plus 100bps
“I have the Office of Strategic Capital, which has two hundred billion dollars in lending authority low cost loans, and that both sends a demand signal to these companies that other private capital crowds around it, equity capital often, and it's, Low cost loan…”
Assertion Partly supported
Michael: Department of War spends $150B per year on technology
“And the idea is to unify that across the department because we spend, you know, a hundred fifty billion dollars a year on tech in one way or another.”
Assertion Supported
Michael: GenAI.mil reached over one million unique users in 30 days
“And we've had over a million people Unix use it in the last 30 days, which is kind of awesome. We've got one third of the enterprise on one model.”
Insight
Michael: Defense startups must prove scaled manufacturing capability beyond prototypes
“Mastering the production, the skilled manufacturing piece of it is the thing that startups who are selling to the Defense Department have to also prove, hire for, demonstrate competence in, and so on.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael predicts major defense innovation in large, missile-like drones
“I think there's going to be, when you think about drones, not just the small drones, they just get the bigger and bigger drones that really look like long range missiles, if you will, to be innovation there.”
Opinion
Emil Michael: AI foundation models and applications are sufficiently well-funded
“And then from an AI standpoint, you know, I feel like we're generally okay with the investment. I mean, there's so much money going in there that that's like a well-funded area, both the foundation models and the derivatives that are trying to do specific apps…”
Assertion Supported
Michael: 200 pharmaceuticals are on the US critical shortage list
“You know, there's 200 pharmaceuticals on the critical shortage list, because we're dependent on other
Countries.”
Emil Michael