The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Knoop: ARC solution will likely need under 10k code lines, not massive LLMs
“It's quite likely actually that the solution it can be like written in like 10,000 lines of code or less. And it's not gonna require these like, you know, gigantic You know, two hundred billion large parameter models in order to solve it.”
Mike Knoop Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 15:15 No Priors Ep. 68 | With Zapier Co-Founder and Head of AI Mike Knoop
Opinion
Knoop: ARC-AGI is the only true AGI evaluation that exists
“Arc AGI to best of my knowledge is the only true. AGI eval that actually exists in the world and measures a actually good definition, correct definition of what AGI is, which we can talk about.”
Mike Knoop Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 2:28 No Priors Ep. 68 | With Zapier Co-Founder and Head of AI Mike Knoop
Assertion Supported
Knoop: ARC-AGI benchmark performance only moved from 20% to 34% in four years
“There's an AI lab called lab 42 out of Switzerland that's been running a small annual contest over the last four years to try and beat this eval and state of the art today is. 34% state of the art four years ago when it was first introduced was 20%. So we've m…”
Mike Knoop Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 2:38 No Priors Ep. 68 | With Zapier Co-Founder and Head of AI Mike Knoop
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