The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Huang: NVIDIA would be worth hundreds of billions even without chatbots
“If you, if generative AI, well, excuse me, if chatbots, let's just go, you know, OpenAI and Anthropic, Gemini. If none of that existed today, NVIDIA would be a multi-hundred billion dollar company, and the reason for that is because, as you know, the foundatio…”
Vinyals: AI will remain hybrid as general models overtaking science is far away
“Probably we can, and we might see more and more bootstrapping from Gemini and these models to then a specific solution that, that the model is going to be throw away, except for, you know, maybe cracking protein folding or, you know, figuring out nuclear fusio…”
Knoop: Frontier AI labs have stopped publishing technical details
“Frontier AI research is also basically like completely stopped publishing. You know, the GPD four paper had zero technical details. The Gemini paper had zero technical details on the longer context stuff.”
Davis: AI systems will make millions of heterogeneous model calls per question
“I think that what we'll see people doing is kind of composing, this sounds funny, but massive networks, Where maybe each stage in the network will basically be maybe some best of A, best of K component with many, many calls to different language models, you kn…”
Vinyals: Gemini Reasons Over Entire Books Rather Than Compressing to Single Vectors
“The problem with, of course, retrieval based methods is they tend to simplify things to say, hey, like this whole book is just a single vector. Whereas if you just upload a whole book into Gemini and ask questions, it can really reason about every single word,…”
Gil: Longer context windows will prove more important than expected for biology
“I think for certain application areas, like biology, longer context windows actually seem to be quite important. And so, for example, if you're doing a protein folding model and you have a short context window, you're often actually not encapsulating much of t…”
Guo: Google's unreleased internal multimodal and function-calling capabilities are highly impressive
“Gemini is a very impressive model. I think the capabilities that they have internally that they haven't released yet around additional, like, function calling and multimodality are also really, really impressive”
Vinyals: Gemini formed by merging parallel LLM efforts across Brain and DeepMind
“One was that the Gemini project was formed as a result of having two sort of Parallel efforts on LLMs, mostly led by Google Brain and what we now call Legacy DeepMind. So earlier in the year, there was an effort to merge the two projects, and that's when sort …”