The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Knoop: ARC benchmark solution will likely come from an outsider
“I am more confident actually that or I guess I would bet that the solution arc probably comes from an outsider. I think it's probably gonna come from somebody who's sort of not indoctrinated in the current way of thinking about language models and scale.”
Mike Knoop Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 14:42 No Priors Ep. 68 | With Zapier Co-Founder and Head of AI Mike Knoop
Assertion Supported
Knoop: Language models objectively cannot beat the ARC benchmark
“Just sort of objectively, language models do not work to beat Arc. And people have tried.”
Mike Knoop Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 7:21 No Priors Ep. 68 | With Zapier Co-Founder and Head of AI Mike Knoop
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