why aren't all 27 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Goyal: AWS regained its mojo by hosting Anthropic Claude on Bedrock
“AWS has its mojo back now that they have Anthropic on bedrock and Anthropic is, you know, especially cloud three and three, five are really, really good.”
Assertion Supported
Nvidia runs its own AI training clusters on AWS infrastructure
“NVIDIA actually runs their AI training clusters in AWS, because we actually have the most stable infrastructure of anyone else, and so they actually get the best performance from us”
Opinion
Garman calls Anthropic Claude models the best performing in the world
“I think people love using Anthropix Claude models. Those are fantastic, and right now, those are the best performing models in the world which is fantastic.”
Disclosure
Feldman: Cerebras signed an agreement to deploy in AWS data centers
“And then in March, we signed an agreement with AWS, where we will be deployed in their data centers going forward”
Assertion Partly supported
Gil: AI labs scaled from $1B to $10B revenue in one year
“ADP Took 20 something years to grow from a billion to ten billion in revenue. And then the next wave of companies like Adobe took about 20 years to go from one to 10. And then you fast forward in time and you have things like Salesforce or SAPs for an even mor…”
Disclosure
Rippling plans an AWS moment next quarter by commercializing its data platform
“There is some new stuff coming from the company that's not directly AI related, but is about really scaled data, like super high scale data. We've already built this like really beautiful data platform underneath Rippling. It's kind of like our AWS, like we're…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Guo: Model providers will build proprietary API features to avoid commoditization
“You're going to see providers try and push customers down a more locked in path in terms of like APIs, right? We saw this with, you know, AWS. You're going to have sophistication around like, don't just do, it's a storage bucket. You're, you'll have prompt cac…”
Opinion
Garman says Google and Microsoft forced new app paradigms in early cloud
“I think if you look at some of those others like Google and later Microsoft they kind of went at this space for first, we were the first ones out there that had anything like this, but even soon after that, I think they went after the space, like that was goin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Garman estimates 85% of enterprise workloads still run on-premise
“Now that we're at a hundred billion run rate you look at, you still go out there, and I think, 85% of workloads are still running on-prem today, by most estimation, somewhere in that range, you know, pick your number, whether it's 80 to 90, whatever it is, lik…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Multi-year fab lead times will keep AI hardware supply chains constrained
“Look, I think we're probably going to be in a constrained world for the next little bit of time. Just, you know, that some of these things are, they take time. Like, look how long it takes to build a semiconductor fab. Like, it is, it's not a short lead time, …”
Assertion Supported
Secret intelligence contract win against IBM marked AWS inflection point
“One of the big Inflection points we saw is we went after the intelligence agencies for the U S government, and we won that contract and it was secret. And it, you know, we pushed really hard to go in that. It was against all the incumbents, HPs and IBMs and Or…”
Insight
Inference workloads must dominate training for AI capital investments to pay off
“Inference is, is one of those workloads that today it's, you know, fifty-fifty maybe of training in Inference, but in order for the math to work out, Inference workloads have to dominate, otherwise all this investment in, in these big models isn't really gonna…”
Insight
Masad: Replit's Moat Is Unifying the Entire Code-to-Deployment Feedback Loop
“The real advantage is the end-to-end journey from the first line of code to the deployment, to getting crashes in production, to making edits, to all of that feedback cycle, which typically in most cases is divided between GitHub and VS Code and AWS and all of…”
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Coinbase contributed x402 to Linux Foundation with Google and AWS
“We're seeing a lot of agentic payment now flow over these new protocols, like x-for-o-two, which is one that we incubated at Coinbase that we actually put into the Linux foundation. So Google and Cloudflare and AWS, a bunch of people are working with us on tha…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Desai: All Fortune 500 companies are still migrating workloads to cloud
“When I speak to Fortune 500, I can tell you without hesitation, they are all still talking about I need to move X percent of apps to GCP, AWS, Azure, some combination, Alibaba in Europe, whatever the case might be.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Goyal: Some enterprises consolidated AI stacks to OpenAI, AWS, and Braintrust
“There's some companies that we talked to and their AI vendors are, it's literally OpenAI, AWS, and Braintrust and pretty much everything else has consolidated away.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amazon Titan is by far the most popular embeddings model on Bedrock
“In fact, the Titan embeddings model, Is by far the most popular embeddings model that we have inside of Bedrock today for people that are building search indices and thinking about things like that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI inference will become a core cloud computing primitive like storage
“As you move forward, generative AI honestly becomes one of the compute building blocks that you think about. You're going to need storage, you need compute, you need databases, you need inference, if you will, for your application, largely. And I think that's …”
Disclosure
Noon: I advised passing on Snowflake's Series B because of Redshift
“I did diligence on snowflakes B and told whoever asked me to pass. Cause I'm like redshift exists. Like AWS is not asleep at the wheel.”
Insight
Pomel: Shared cloud infrastructure allows software vendors to serve startups and enterprises alike
“In the cloud and open source generation, like the tooling is the same for all companies. If you go back 15 years, if you were a startup, you were building on open source. And if you were a large company, you were buying whatever Oracle or Microsoft was selling…”
Disclosure
Stein says an unmapped AWS customer lost data to ransomware
“During our time at AWS, it was a very large customer that was impacted by ransomware. We thought that they were completely protected using our technology, the Disaster recovery service that we managed there, and we learned, unfortunately, that the customer tho…”
Assertion Supported
Adobe built its Firefly AI models entirely on top of AWS
“Where we see folks like Adobe building Firefly is a all built on top of AWS purpose built for the own thing, their own thing that they're building.”
Disclosure
AWS began developing proprietary AI processors five to six years ago
“We've been investing in AI broadly for the last 10 years, and that's why we started five or six years ago investing at the infrastructure layer and building our own processors”
Assertion Supported
AWS grew revenue from $500M in 2010 to $90B in 2023
“I think you guys went from something like five hundred million or so in 2010 to about ninety billion last year in terms of revenue for AWS.”
Disclosure
AWS is building an easy button to migrate legacy mainframes
“If I had an easy button and by the way, we're trying to build an easy button, but if I had an easy button that would just migrate mainframes to a modern cloud architecture today, almost everyone will push that button, but it doesn't quite exist today.”
Assertion Supported
Jeff Bezos mandated internal move to modular services in 2003
“If you scroll back all the way to 2003 or so, Jeff Bezos basically mandated across the company that in order to move from a big monolithic stack that wasn't going to scale anymore for Amazon, we had to move everything to services.”
Insight
Henry: Enterprises hit cloud spend commits buying third-party partner products
“If you look at the marketplaces on the cloud providers, so like they have partnerships with all these people where, you know, to get down your Azure AWS bill, you say, I'm going to spend this many millions of dollars on your cloud. Some of it's going to be, I'…”