The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Laskin: Humanity's Last Exam Benchmark Barely Matters to End Users
“Now, that's great, but I think the downside of that is that does humanity's last exam actually matter in any meaningful way for an end user? And I would argue that some weak correlation, but the answer is most likely no.”
Misha Laskin Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 15:53 No Priors Ep. 123 | With ReflectionAI Co-Founder and CEO Misha Laskin
Assertion Supported
Zelikman: Frontier AI models solve questions that stump actual PhD researchers
“Some of the HLE questions that these models are able to solve are genuinely things that are, like, non-trivial for, like, actual, like, PhD researchers.”
Eric Zelikman Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 8:53 No Priors Ep. 135 | With Humans& Founder Eric Zelikman
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hendrycks: Saturating Humanity's Last Exam benchmark will signal superhuman STEM AI
“When performance is near the ceiling, I think that'd basically be an indication that, like, you have something like a superhuman mathematician or a superhuman STEM scientist for, in many ways, for when they're, when closed-ended questions are very useful, such…”
Dan Hendrycks Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 32:09 No Priors Ep. 105 | With Director of the Center of AI Safety Dan Hendrycks
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