Opinion
Humanity Will Achieve Broadly Capable AGI but Will Not Build God
“We will build AGI if what you mean is very useful, generally capable technology that can do a lot of the stuff that humans can do and flex into a lot of different domains. If what you mean is, you know, are we gonna build God? No.”
Opinion
Falling AI API Prices Stem From Price Dumping, Not Commoditization
“I don't think that models are actually getting commoditized. I think what you see is you see price dumping. And so you see people giving it out for free, giving it out at a loss, giving out at zero margin. And so they see the prices coming down and they assume…”
Disclosure
Cohere Will Not Build a Direct ChatGPT Competitor
“We're not going to build a ChatGPT competitor. What we want to build is a platform and a series of products to enable enterprises to adopt this technology and make it valuable.”
Opinion
Current LLM Tech Alone Requires Five Years of Economic Integration Work
“Even if we didn't train a single new language model, like, okay, all the data centers blow up. We can't improve the LLM. We only have what we have today. There's a half decade of work to go integrate this into the economy, to build all these things, to build t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
GPT-4 Class Enterprise Models Now Cost $10M to $20M to Train
“What we've seen is today you can build a model that's as good as GPT-IV in all the things that enterprises might care about. For ten million dollars, twenty million dollars, like just orders of magnitude less than what was spent to develop that model. And so i…”
Disclosure
Cohere Strategically Lags Frontier Labs by Six Months to Avoid $7B Burn
“So that's the strategy is don't lead. Don't burn, you know, three, five, seven billion dollars a year to be at the front, be six months behind. And offer something to market to enterprises that actually fits their needs at a price point that makes sense for th…”
Insight
AI Scaling Curves Are Flattening and Casual Vibe Checks Are Failing
“We're starting to enter into a sort of flat part of the curve and we're certainly past the point where if you just interact with a model, You can know how smart it is. Like the vibe checks, they're losing utility.”
Insight
Inference-Time Compute Lets Labs Scale Intelligence Without Doubling Supercomputers
“I don't need to go double the size of my supercomputer to hit a requisite intelligence threshold. I can just double the amount of inference time compute that my customers pay for.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI Will Eventually Run Experiments, but Scaling Will Take Many Years
“At some stage we're gonna have to give these models the ability to run their own experiments to fill in areas of their knowledge that they're curious about. But I think that's quite Quite a ways away. And it's going to be tough to scale that. It will take many…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Global AI Refactor Will Take 15 Years With Few Key Players
“I think in reality, the state of the world is there's a total technological refactor that's going on right now and will last the next 10 to 15 years. And it's kind of like we have to repave every road on the planet. And there's like four or five companies that…”
Insight
Overestimating LLM Flexibility Causes Repeated Enterprise RAG Failures
“Well, I think all language models are quite sensitive to prompts, to the way that you present data. They all have their own individual quirks. The way that you talk to one might not work for the way that you talk to another. And so when you're building a syste…”
Insight
Fine-Tuning Cannot Effectively Add New Languages to Large Language Models
“There's just no way you can do that without intervening on pre-training. You can't like fine tune or post train Japanese into a model effectively. And so you have to start from scratch.”
Insight
Fine-Tuning Open Source Models Lacks Levers of Full Vertical Training
“Taking those models and trying to fine tune them It's just, it's not as effective as building it yourself and you have much fewer levers to pull than if you actually have access to the data and you can change the data that goes into that process.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Inference-Time Compute Does Not Require Densely Interconnected Supercomputers
“If we have a new avenue, which is inference time compute, That doesn't require this densely interconnected supercomputer. It's fine to have nodes. You can do a lot more locally and less distributed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Reasoning Models Will Become Highly Robust Within Two to Three Years
“I think right now it's extremely inefficient and it's quite brittle, similar to the early versions of language models. But over the next two or three years, it's gonna become incredibly robust and unlock just a whole new set of problems.”
Insight
Enterprises Should Buy Commodity AI and Build Only Proprietary Differentiators
“What we've pushed organizations to do is have a strategy that encompasses that full pyramid. Yes, you need the generalist standard stuff. Maybe there's some industry specific tools that you can go out and buy, but then if you're building, don't build those thi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI Developer Adoption Will Take Two to Three Years to Permeate
“Eventually developers will become more familiar with building with this technology. But I think it's going to take another two or three years before it really permeates.”
Assertion Supported
Anthropic Quadrupled the Price of Claude Haiku in Early November 2024
“The price of Haiku forexed two weeks ago.”
Aidan Gomez