why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Masad: Bitcoin will long-term become the TCP/IP of money
“I still believe, I think Bitcoin is going to be long-term, the TCP IP of money, but there's going to be a lot of services that could also be Stripe and others and Square that is built on that, like on that set of rails.”
Insight
Dent: Scaling software teams stall without a dedicated architectural steward
“I think you just learn that unless somebody is really taking care to keep the entire system in their head and is an effective technical steward of the architecture, that things just evolve and the sort of the entropy of the software takes over and slows down y…”
Opinion
Mann: Anthropic can match consumer AI rivals by acting like Adyen
“And if you look at like Stripe versus Adyen, for example, like nobody knows about Adyen. But at least most people in Silicon Valley know about Stripe. And so it's this like business oriented versus more consumer and user oriented platform. And I think we're mu…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons: Startups are launching and making money on Stripe using Bolt.new
“We've been online for just under two months now, and we've already had the first startups launch out of this thing. You know, they've used Bolt to build their startup and are making money, like, you know, charging on Stripe or whatever have you.”
Assertion Supported
Franceschi: Brex operates directly with Mastercard, bypassing Stripe and Marqeta
“The way we build our financial infrastructure, we don't rely on Stripe, on Marketo, or any of these vendors. We literally go straight to the metal and do the money movement directly with MasterCard and local payment rails.”
Insight
Sands: High Upfront Compute Costs Force AI Startups to Monetize Faster
“Unlike a bunch of the past generations of software startups, we're seeing AI startups have substantial compute costs right out of the gate, and that that's putting a bunch of pressure to build monetization engines faster.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sands: Financial Foundation Models Could Beat Traditional Optimization by 200 Bps
“It doesn't feel crazy to think that a good foundation model could outperform more traditional approaches by, I don't know, a hundred bips, 200 bips.”
Insight
Gil: Companies that do not innovate early never innovate later
“It seems like in general companies that iterate or launch new things early, keep launching things later in the life of the company and companies that never innovate early don't ever innovate again in their lives is kind of like the difference between eBay and …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sands: LLMs Will Automate Bespoke Financial Integrations Without Payments Engineers
“I think there's almost certainly an opportunity to, you know, whether Stripe does it or somebody else does it, to make sort of financial integrations way more seamless. Stripe has a whole suite of no code products, so you can use, ah, you know, payment links o…”
Opinion
Sands: Stripe Can Learn and Action Interventions Improving Business Success
“Stripe's clearly helping companies run more effectively and also in a position to learn from its data what kind of interventions significantly improve companies' long-term success. And in some cases to actually action those.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sands: Stripe Smart Dunning Reduces Recurring Charge Declines by 30%
“For recurring charges in our billing product, we use Smart Dunning to reduce declines, and actually reduces declines by about 30%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sands: Stripe ML Recovers Billions Globally in False Declines
“We use ML to optimize authorization requests for issuers, basically Identifying the optimized retry messaging and routing combinations to recover a big chunk of false declines, about 10%, so billions of dollars globally.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sands: Over Half of the 2023 Forbes AI 50 Used Stripe
“We're looking at the list of top 50 AI companies put out by Forbes last year and noticed over half were using Stripe.”
Opinion
Sands: AI presents a major opportunity to automate complex financial integrations
“I think there's almost certainly an opportunity to, you know, whether Stripe does it or somebody else does it, to make sort of financial integrations way more seamless.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sands: Three Stripe Engineers Built Internal LLM Explorer Beta in Three Weeks
“So it starts with a story of three engineers who hacked together in three weeks an internal beta for an LLM Explorer.”
Disclosure
Sands: Stripe Operates Four Dedicated AI Incubator Teams
“It's four of them today. And should it be six or should it be eight or should it be 10? And then in parallel, where can we really support the vertical teams or the core product organization in adopting LLMs or generative AI more broadly directly?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sands: Nearly 3,000 Stripe Employees Use Internal LLM Explorer Weekly
“The weekly active user count of this LLM Explorer is still at almost 3000, which is just shy of half the company using it every single week.”
Disclosure
Sands: Stripe Funds Small Accelerators for Six-Month AI Bets
“So the idea of accelerators is basically ring fencing one to two pizza teams and multiple of them to get new AI bets seated. And one of the accelerators was actually what produced this LLM Explorer. So it's very hard to just pull three engineers off of You kno…”
Disclosure
Sands: Stripe Built Internal Experimentation Platform Due to Latency Demands
“Our experimentation platform is one that we've built internally. We run a lot of charge level experiments and Latency and reliability requirements for charge level experiments are very, very high, and so building and running that internally has been worthwhile”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sands: Stripe Radar Evaluates 1,000 Characteristics in Under 100 Milliseconds
“Stripe Radar, which you mentioned, you know, considers a thousand characteristics of a transaction and figures out in less than a hundred milliseconds if each of the, you know, billions of legitimate payments made on Stripe can go through.”
Disclosure
Sands: Stripe Radar and Sigma Assistants Are Rolling Out Soon
“So on automating code Radar Assistant and Sigma Assistant are two new products that are in beta and rolling out to all users soon.”
Disclosure
Sands: Stripe has 60 applications built on its internal LLM API
“There are 60 applications built on that now, a bunch internal, but also several external, and I'm happy to talk about a couple of them.”