why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Humanoid robots will be the world's biggest business by far
“A, it's gonna be the biggest business in the world by probably order of magnitude. Half of GDP is human labor, like an order of magnitude bigger than, like, all of transportation market. It's just an enormous industry.”
Assertion Supported
Adcock: Figure robots execute tasks and speech end-to-end via neural nets
“We're doing that fully autonomous end to end on our robots now, all bipedal. And the second is we're doing kind of full consumer level manipulation and like speech to speech reasoning. So we're able to Talk with the robot. It's able to understand what we're sa…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Everyone will eventually own a humanoid robot and labor will become optional
“I think over a long enough period of time, Everybody will own a humanoid just to do work for them. And you will choose, like. Labor will be optional, and you'll choose to do work or not.”
Opinion
Adcock: Physical data from robots is crucial to achieving AGI
“We think that information is extreme, like coming off the robot is extremely important to solving this last big piece into the AGI timeline.”
Insight
Adcock: Humanoid form factor is the physical world's keyboard and mouse
“You want to build like the equivalent of like the keyboard and mouse to the internet in the physical world. That equivalent is a human form. You can do everything a human can. And the world was optimized specifically for us.”
Insight
Adcock: Hardware development succeeds through iterative testing over theoretical analysis
“From like a thesis perspective, I strongly believe in like an iterative design approach. We really don't believe on spending a lot of time, like just doing research and analyzing. We spend a lot of time on just testing, building the testing here.”
Assertion Partly supported
Adcock: Figure has executed end-to-end tasks for its first client
“We're not trying to get the robot to do like an end to end application. For the first time we've already done, we've done that. And we've done that for our first client's use cases.”
Disclosure
Adcock: Figure designs and builds everything in-house except battery cells, GPUs, CPUs
“Everything maybe besides like the battery cell and the GPU and CPU at this point, it feels like we've done what we're doing.”
Disclosure
Adcock: Figure employees work in the office five to seven days weekly
“We work in the office every day, five to seven days a week.”
Disclosure
Adcock: Figure is already generating revenue from customer robot deliveries in 2024
“Companies are, you know, paying us now for robots as we're, like, delivering them this year.”
Disclosure
Adcock: BMW is purchasing Figure humanoid robots for manufacturing plants
“Our first announced commercial customer, they are buying robots from us to ship into their manufacturing facilities.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Humanoid robot costs will fall to really affordable levels with scale
“There's a lot of preconceived notions that these will be really expensive. I do not think they'll be expensive. I think you know, we're working on cost reduction and stuff now, like the robots we have now, we've showed, are expensive. They're not cheap. The wo…”
Opinion
Adcock: LLMs struggle with physical world reasoning and action planning
“It's becoming more clear. I think at least to our team that at least these large language models are having a really difficult time, like reasoning around the physical world, planning actions, everything across the board.”
Assertion Supported
Adcock: Figure got its humanoid robot walking within one year of founding
“We actually started walking our humanoid from the time I filed the C Corp in the business and we walked the robot, it was under a year from when we started, which was pretty impressive feat.”