why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Falling AI API Prices Stem From Price Dumping, Not Commoditization
“I don't think that models are actually getting commoditized. I think what you see is you see price dumping. And so you see people giving it out for free, giving it out at a loss, giving out at zero margin. And so they see the prices coming down and they assume…”
Opinion
Humanity Will Achieve Broadly Capable AGI but Will Not Build God
“We will build AGI if what you mean is very useful, generally capable technology that can do a lot of the stuff that humans can do and flex into a lot of different domains. If what you mean is, you know, are we gonna build God? No.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
GPT-4 Class Enterprise Models Now Cost $10M to $20M to Train
“What we've seen is today you can build a model that's as good as GPT-IV in all the things that enterprises might care about. For ten million dollars, twenty million dollars, like just orders of magnitude less than what was spent to develop that model. And so i…”
Disclosure
Cohere Strategically Lags Frontier Labs by Six Months to Avoid $7B Burn
“So that's the strategy is don't lead. Don't burn, you know, three, five, seven billion dollars a year to be at the front, be six months behind. And offer something to market to enterprises that actually fits their needs at a price point that makes sense for th…”
Disclosure
Cohere Will Not Build a Direct ChatGPT Competitor
“We're not going to build a ChatGPT competitor. What we want to build is a platform and a series of products to enable enterprises to adopt this technology and make it valuable.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Global AI Refactor Will Take 15 Years With Few Key Players
“I think in reality, the state of the world is there's a total technological refactor that's going on right now and will last the next 10 to 15 years. And it's kind of like we have to repave every road on the planet. And there's like four or five companies that…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI Will Eventually Run Experiments, but Scaling Will Take Many Years
“At some stage we're gonna have to give these models the ability to run their own experiments to fill in areas of their knowledge that they're curious about. But I think that's quite Quite a ways away. And it's going to be tough to scale that. It will take many…”
Insight
Fine-Tuning Open Source Models Lacks Levers of Full Vertical Training
“Taking those models and trying to fine tune them It's just, it's not as effective as building it yourself and you have much fewer levers to pull than if you actually have access to the data and you can change the data that goes into that process.”
Insight
Enterprises Should Buy Commodity AI and Build Only Proprietary Differentiators
“What we've pushed organizations to do is have a strategy that encompasses that full pyramid. Yes, you need the generalist standard stuff. Maybe there's some industry specific tools that you can go out and buy, but then if you're building, don't build those thi…”
Disclosure
Shih: Salesforce AI integrates internal models alongside OpenAI, Anthropic, Cohere, and Google
“So it's really a combination of using Whether it's Cogen from our research team, which is the, which powers Apex Cogen GPT that we have in, in our developer GPT, where you also fine tuning versions of that for domain specific models in customer service and for…”