why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Schimpf: Anduril Builds Weapons and Believes It Is Ethical and Necessary
“We've been clear. We work on weapons. We believe that's important. We believe you can do it ethically. We believe it's necessary. And we're not shy about that.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2028
Schimpf: US will not adopt autonomous robots making lethal strike decisions
“The U S is not going to adopt systems that have autonomous robots going out and making sort of lethal decisions about, you know, what to attack or not. That's not really how the U S works. We assign accountability to the person that employed a weapon system. T…”
Insight
Schimpf: Defense tech requires controlling both hardware and software
“To be really successful in moving The, you know, technology forward, you had to control the hardware and the software to really be able to move the needle. The way defense buys at the end of the day is they want to buy a capability. They want to buy something …”
Disclosure
Gil: Investing in Anduril's seed round triggered his first-ever hate texts
“When I first invested in Anduril, which was at the seed round, It was the first time that I'd ever in my life gotten like hate texts.”
Insight
Schimpf: Understanding procurement mechanisms is the most critical part of defense tech
“And having folks with the background in the defense space is incredibly important. How you sell, what that looks like, the types of problems they want to work on, how that whole mechanism works is so different than any other, you know, sort of enterprise sales…”
Assertion Partly supported
Schimpf: Anduril landed a $1 billion counter-drone contract with SOCOM
“We had landed a counter drone contract with SOCOM for a billion dollars to, you know, kind of scale out and get these technologies deployed.”
Disclosure
Schimpf: Anduril established a Capitol Hill lobbying group on day one
“To convince the government you are a good partner and trustworthy to do this, we've established a lobbying group day one of the company, right? We were on the Hill talking about what we do, why it's beneficial to national security and why it's beneficial to th…”
Insight
Schimpf: Defense hardware scaling is difficult due to episodic demand jumps
“The reality with working with a defense customer is you kind of, you know, you have very few buyers, right? It's like, there's not that many customers you're working with. And so you, you're kind of subject to their timing and desire for what they're going to …”
Disclosure
Schimpf: Anduril does not do AI research, focuses on applying state-of-the-art
“We don't do AI research. We're not interested in any of that. We're looking at how can we kind of best take what is working in the state of the art and apply it rapidly into these defense problem sets.”
Disclosure
Schimpf: Anduril is developing a 60-foot autonomous submarine
“The largest thing we're working on right now is an autonomous underwater submarine. That's about the size of a school bus. It's about, you know, gonna be 60 feet long, 10 feet diameter. It's a very Big boat. And you know, it'll be able to go huge distances for…”
Disclosure
Gil: Anduril is his only pure-play defense investment
“The only company in defense I ever ended up actually investing in is Andrew. You know, there's other companies that are doing things that impact the defense industry, like scale for data labeling or applied intuition or companies like that. But you're the only…”