The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Huang: Without energy growth policies, US would have lost AI revolution
“If not for this entire change in, in sentiment, About energy growth in our country. We can all concede now. We would have handed this industrial revolution to somebody else.”
Kushner: An Israel-Saudi Deal Could Have Finished in 3 to 6 Months in 2021
“When President Trump left in 2021, ah, a deal with Saudi could have been done in three to six months, and that was basically what I passed over to the previous, ah, administration, ah, during the transition.”
Krishnan: Passing SB 1047 Would Have Ended American Open-Source AI
“You know, like until last a year and a half ago, I was in California, along with all of you, California almost passed SB, which if that had happened, it would have been the end of open source, by the way, in the United States, we would not have a Lama. We woul…”
Huang: Self-driving would be at the same stage starting 3 years ago
“In a lot of ways, if we were to started self-driving cars probably three years ago, it would probably be exactly the same place.”
Huang: NVIDIA would be worth hundreds of billions even without chatbots
“If you, if generative AI, well, excuse me, if chatbots, let's just go, you know, OpenAI and Anthropic, Gemini. If none of that existed today, NVIDIA would be a multi-hundred billion dollar company, and the reason for that is because, as you know, the foundatio…”
Lina Khan: Microsoft antitrust action allowed Google, Amazon, and Facebook to flourish
“The reason that Microsoft was looking to elbow out Netscape was not because Netscape risked replacing it as the dominant operating system. It was because Netscape risked disintermediating it and making it irrelevant whether you were using Microsoft or somethin…”
Schimpf: Ukraine would 100% strike deep into Russia if given tools
“You know, you don't want necessarily to give Taiwan the ability to strike deep into mainland China, that Ukrainians would a hundred percent be doing that if we gave them tools to do that into Russia.”
Delangue: AI Would Be Decades Behind Without Five Years of Open Source
“If you know, remove the open source from that equation, if they wouldn't have been as much open source at As there's been in the five past five years, we would be like decades away from, you know, where, where we are now.”
Emil Michael: Russia-Ukraine casualties would be far higher without drone warfare
“Without the drone warfare in, in that area of the world, you probably would have seen way more human casualties. It's already devastating. It would have been way more devastating.”
Laskin: Dota and AlphaStar would have achieved superintelligence with more compute
“Dota V and AlphaStar were near super intelligent systems, and if OpenAI and DeepMind had sunk more compute into them, they would have definitely become super intelligent.”
Huang: NVIDIA could not have built Hopper without AI chip designers
“We can't, we couldn't build Hopper without it.”
Tan: Without middle school algebra, I wouldn't have gotten into Stanford
“Like if I couldn't study algebra in middle school, if I couldn't study calculus by senior year, I couldn't have gotten into Stanford. I couldn't have studied computer science, and I never would have been able to participate in, like, what is the craziest thing…”
Halligan: HubSpot suffered more dilution targeting SMBs instead of enterprise
“We diluted a lot more than we would have if we just went to the enterprise like Marketo did.”
The multiplayer poker AI breakthrough was algorithms, not just scaling compute
“This wasn't just a matter of scaling compute. It really was an algorithmic breakthrough, and this kind of result would have been doable 20 years ago if people knew the approach to dig.”