The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,567 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 43 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Helberg: DeepSeek lied about compute capacity and distilled ChatGPT weights
“The main takeaways of how DeepSeq achieved the performance its performance was Incremental efficiency gains. They lied about their compute capacity because they have a billion dollar cluster, and they distilled ChatGPT's model weights.”
Prince: Prominent AI companies use state-hacker tactics to bypass scraping blocks
“In fact, some really prominent companies That do some very, very, very shady things where they basically say, absolutely, we follow the rules of the road, but when push comes to serve, if it turns out they're blocked, then all of a sudden they're doing a bunch…”
Caruso: Mayor Bass cut LAFD budget, leaving equipment mothballed in lots
“The city didn't even have enough equipment because they've underfunded the fire department for so long, and Mayor Bass cut even more out this last budget cycle That they had equipment mothballed in parking lots.”
Stability AI Has More Compute Available Than Microsoft or Google
“The reality is we have more compute available to us than Microsoft or Google.”
Overnight AI intelligence explosion unlikely due to test-time compute bottlenecks
“And I don't think we're headed to that world largely because of the fact that the models rely so much on large scale test time compute. In order to achieve their greatest intelligence. If you, if it requires so much test time compute to unlock the full capabil…”
Tan: President Trump asked him to resign over conflicts of interest
“Well, the most surprising that I don't learn from my previous job or even training is one day early morning, President Trump asking me to resign and a conflict of interest, and there's no exceptions.”
Zuckerberg: Curing all disease by end of century is too conservative
“But still, I mean, people thought that by the end of the century was a stretch. Now I think it's, like too conservative.”
Patel: Anthropic has surpassed OpenAI in API revenue
“Anthropic has eclipsed OpenAI and API revenue, and their API revenue is primarily not thinking. It's clawed for, but it's not in the thinking mode.”
Chen: Researchers Degrade AI Factuality Just to Boost LMSYS Rankings
“A lot of researchers, they'll tell us that their VPs make them focus on increasing their rank on LMSYS. And so I've had researchers explicitly tell me that they're okay with making their models worse. Add factuality works at following instructions as long as i…”
Armstrong: The agentic economy will surpass the human economy
“It kind of stands to reason that the agentic economy will be bigger than the human economy at some point in the not too distant future as well.”
Armstrong predicts having children without embryo editing will eventually be considered abnormal
“I think it'll be more normal over time. And at some point it'll be abnormal To have children without doing this kind of screening and editing, because it'd be like, well, this is so risky.”
Taylor: Valar Atomics will turn on a new reactor every few minutes
“And we will get it down to minutes. This company will get, we'll get to the point where we have a new reactor turning on every few minutes.”
Valar Is the Only Private Company to Ever Produce Nuclear Power
“This is the fifth new nuclear device to make power in the United States since the year 2000. Fowler is the only private company founded since the discovery of nuclear fission that has ever made nuclear power.”
Taylor: Valar Atomics could be worth $500B in 10 years
“And, you know, we're sitting here right now, you know, less than three years from the founding of the company, and I think if you look back at 10 years in 10 years from now, and, you know, Valor's worth five hundred billion, something like that you will be abl…”
Taylor: Nuclear Fission Will Make Energy 1,000 Times Cheaper
“I know that nuclear fission will make energy a thousand times cheaper than it is today. Somebody will do that.”
Gil: California is discussing an exit tax on departing residents by 2028
“And my sense is in 28, there's increasing talk about also trying to add a exit tax in California. So if you actually try and leave, they'll, they'll try and take a big chunk as sort of a penalty for that.”
Brown: Modern AI models can reason for weeks before plateauing
“What we're seeing today with the modern models is that 5.5 and other models can think for, if you scaffold them reasonably well, can think for weeks even before having performance plateau on some of these benchmarks.”
Tan: Jensen Huang's $5B Intel investment is now worth $25B+
“Secondly, very happy that Jensen Huang, my old time friend, he also put five billion in investing and support me. And I'm glad I at least do some good work. It's five billion become twenty five billion now and or more.”
Nadella: Data center buildout will ultimately lower energy prices long-term
“In fact, if anything, it's bringing down prices because long-term there's going to be a better grid. There is going to be more energy.”
Helberg: Belt and Road countries frequently default, yielding equity to China
“It is Chinese workers, Chinese companies, you know, and a lot of the times it's Chinese equity because the debt converts to equity if, you know, the host country defaults. They do a lot of the times.”
Allaire: Double-Digit GDP Growth in the 2030s Is Achievable in Many Regions
“It does feel like we have the potential for double-digit GDP numbers in the twenty-thirties. Like, that's, that seems not unrealistic to me. Not that that's going to be uniform all around the world, but certainly in large, large parts of the world, that seems …”
Scaringe: Automakers failing at neural net autonomy will shrink to zero
“It's the companies that do this well will exist. The companies that don't do this well, like, I feel really strong on this. They will not exist. They will shrink to nothing. They'll asymptotically approach, you know, zero.”
Huang: Natural gas is probably the only viable power solution this decade
“We're going to need nuclear. Wind is not going to be enough. Solar is not going to be enough. Let's just all acknowledge that we'll take it. We'll take everything we can. But the fact that matters, I think for the next decade, natural gas, you know, is probabl…”
Huang: Chinese military is unlikely to use American tech
“And so that American technology, although general purpose it is unlikely to be used by their military because their military is too smart, just as our military is too smart to use their technology.”
Huang: China contributes more to open source than any other country
“No country in the world contributes more to open source than China.”
Johnson: 2026 Will Be the Year YOLO Dies
“Ok, my prediction for twenty-twenty-six is it will be the year that YOLO dies. We will begin transforming ourselves from a you only live once to don't die.”
Hendrycks: U.S. and China may launch preemptive cyberattacks on data centers
“I think that later on, it becomes so destabilizing that China just says, we're going to do something preemptive, like do a cyber attack on your data center. And the U.S. Might do that to China.”
Nikesh Arora: Incumbents will squeeze AI security startups out of existence
“The current startups you mentioned like startups that are trying to do what AI wrappers are trying to do on LLMs. And over time we're going to get better and better where we're going to squeeze their capability over time that you wouldn't need them.”
Arora predicts 80% to 90% of customer support eliminated in 2-5 years
“I think in concept from a north star perspective, we should be able to take 80, 90% of customer support out in the next two to five years across the landscape.”
Liemandt: Alpha School yields top 1% academic performance in two hours daily
“And so we built a learning engine that teaches kids 10 times faster. It's all based on the principles of learning science. And so then now we can commit to kids. You just need to do two hours a day and you're going to crush your academics. So top one percent p…”
Liemandt: Private school A-students test up to three grades behind
“Your student academically
On our standard, on standardized tests that we use are somewhere between one grade level ahead.
If they had a straight A transcript transferring in to us, one level, one grade level ahead to three grade levels behind.
And if they're a…”
Liemandt: Mastering a grade-level subject takes 20 to 30 hours
“The average grade level subject combo, so fourth grade math, takes between 20 and 30 hours
To master.
That's it.”
Liemandt: 90% of Students Given ChatGPT in School Will Use It to Cheat
“If you give kids ChatGPT in school and academics, 90% will use it for cheating.”
Liemandt: A $500 student incentive program can fix US test scores
“For 400 dollars, maybe 500 dollars of incentive. Remember average education, right? We spend lots of, we spend up to 20 grand a kid. 500 bucks. We can totally fix and change the trajectory and all these bad test scores and all of that by making sure we're moti…”
Kushner: Trump and Witkoff Will Successfully Resolve the Gaza Conflict
“We need to get the Gaza issue resolved, and I know President Trump and Steve Wyckoff are working incredibly hard on that, and I do believe that they will be successful, and then big progress will be made soon thereafter.”
Nadler: OpenEvidence is used daily by 40% of US doctors
“We're used by 40% of doctors in the United States daily on average. It's about 20 times as much usage as the next thing that could be described as a clinical decision support platform.”
Patel: Microsoft dropped Stargate for OpenAI due to slow execution
“Microsoft is not building
Stargate for OpenAI, right? It's because it would have just been too slow, and they're doing it the lame and old way.”
Patel: Huawei Obtains TSMC Wafers via Shell Companies
“Huawei is still getting you know, wafers in Taiwan from TSMC through, like, shell companies, right?”
Prince: OpenAI and Anthropic Refer Traffic 750x and 30,000x Less Than Google
“In the case of someone like OpenAI, it's 750 times harder than it was with the Google of old. With the case of Anthropic, it's 30,000 times harder than the content of old”
Prince: Cloudflare will soon publicly expose misbehaving AI scraping companies
“So, you know, watch our blog, and I have a feeling that some prominent AI companies that are misbehaving are Can get called out pretty soon.”
Krishnan: Biden Diffusion Rule Effectively Banned US GPU Exports to Allies
“Under the Biden era, there was something called the Biden diffusion rule, which basically was a 200 page document, which basically made it illegal for America to export GPUs. It was really hard for you know, if you're Jensen or if you're Lisa Su to really kind…”
Dent: Chai-2 hits nearly 20% wet-lab antibody binding success
“We have about a two week validation cycle in the lab, and two weeks later, we see that roughly close to 20% of these antibodies actually bind their targets in the intended way.”
Mann: Competitors ran 'code reds' to match Claude in coding and failed
“And I know that other companies have had like code reds for trying to catch up in coding capabilities for quite a while and have not been able to do it.”
Mann: Opus 4 triggered ASL-3 safety protocols due to biological threat capabilities
“And so one of the reasons that our most recent model, Opus IV, is classified as ASL III. Is because it did have significant uplift relative to a Google search.”
Hendrycks: Extreme AI export controls make a Taiwan invasion more likely
“If you turn the pain dial all the way up for China in export controls and if AI chips are the currency of economic power in the future, then this increases the probability that they want to invade Taiwan.”
Hendrycks: China will steal model weights even if chip controls succeed
“Even so, I still think if you really tighten the export controls, you made it so that China can't get any of those chips at all, and this is your, one of your biggest priorities, they're just going to steal the weights anyway.”
Hsu: High-throughput token generation will dominate biology over mechanistic research
“The vast majority of, you know, mechanistic data that's been generated to date is really made to ask very specific, very well scoped questions and just, you know, way more tokens per experiment is, you know, just, it's just going to be the way to do it.”