Prediction certainty 5/5 debate potential 4/5

Scaringe: Automakers failing at neural net autonomy will shrink to zero

RJ Scaringe · AI, R2 and the Future of Everyday Driving | Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe · Feb 12, 2026 · at 7:43

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe discusses the existential importance of automotive companies developing in-house neural net autonomy systems.

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“It's the companies that do this well will exist. The companies that don't do this well, like, I feel really strong on this. They will not exist. They will shrink to nothing. They'll asymptotically approach, you know, zero.”

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More from RJ Scaringe

Opinion
Scaringe: Fewer than five non-Chinese companies can solve neural net autonomy
“I think there's more than one, less than five companies outside of China that have The necessary ingredients to do this, the capital, the GPUs, the car park with, you know, enough vehicles generating enough data. I say more than one less than five. It's probab…”
RJ Scaringe Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 7:59 AI, R2 and the Future of Everyday Driving | Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: Rule-based autonomy has a zero percent chance of competing
“A lot of the solutions that are more one dot O based and are sort of stuck in that framework, I think have a, like a truly a zero percent chance of progressing to be competitive with a neural net based approach.”
RJ Scaringe Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 8:46 AI, R2 and the Future of Everyday Driving | Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scaringe: By 2030, car buyers will expect vehicles to drive themselves
“I mean, I think by 2030, it'll be It's inconceivable to buy a car and not expect it to drive itself.”
RJ Scaringe Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 12:55 AI, R2 and the Future of Everyday Driving | Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe
Disclosure
Scaringe: Upcoming Rivian R2 will include lidar alongside radar and cameras
“Our approach to this is we have a higher level of capability on our perception stacks. We have better cameras. We have radar. And of course, with R two, we'll have a lidar as well.”
RJ Scaringe Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 20:38 AI, R2 and the Future of Everyday Driving | Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe
Insight
Scaringe: US EV adoption is throttled by a lack of vehicle choices
“So I think my view is the EV adoption in the United States is a reflection of the lack of choice. There's one set of really great choices with Model F and Model Y. I think there needs to be many more.”
RJ Scaringe Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 27:33 AI, R2 and the Future of Everyday Driving | Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe
Insight
Scaringe: Level 2 and 4 autonomy behave identically 99.99% of the time
“If you're driving a level two system or a level three system or a level four system, For 99.9999, like three or four nine, identical. The difference is like the fifth or sixth or seventh nine on that is these like extreme corner cases.”
RJ Scaringe Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 11:30 AI, R2 and the Future of Everyday Driving | Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe
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