The Ledger
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Tiwari: GPU Depreciation Doesn't Matter in Fully Amortizing Contract-Backed Debt
“First is, On that depreciation question, in these kind of debt structures, it doesn't really matter because the debt's fully paid off by the end of the debt term against committed contractual you know, contracts from investment grade counterparties.”
Tiwari: Hyperscaler AI CapEx Will Scale to Trillions Over Next Several Years
“And over the next several years you know, that scales to trillions of dollars, right?”
Tiwari: AI Compute Debt Uses Customer Cash Flows, Not GPUs, as Primary Collateral
“And I think what got missed was the GPUs themselves were actually like the second, second or tertiary level of collateral in those instruments. The primary collateral was the contracted cash flows from investment grade counterparties.”
Tiwari: Blackwell GPUs achieve 90 to 100x inference efficiency over Hopper
“And so for the hoppers, the H 100 or H 200 series of GPUs into the Blackwells there was a claim made that it could be 30 times more efficient. And I think the data from, you know, some analysis showed that it was 90 to a hundred times more efficient in terms o…”
Tiwari: There are no idle 'dark GPUs' in AI data centers
“And I think what you see here is I have, you know, you don't see any dark GPUs.”
Tiwari: GPU Debt Structures Amortize to Zero Over 4–5 Years With No Balloon Payment
“And in these structures, typically the payback period on the capex was roughly two to three years. And the structures themselves, the debt was over five years, you know, four to five years in length where the entire debt amortized during the outstanding period…”
Tiwari: Data center power and operations have replaced chips as primary bottleneck
“Well, you know, fast forward to twenty-twenty-six, and what we see is, you know, there is obviously more availability of chips, but to build and operate these, you know, data centers requires people, power, infrastructure, a lot of these things that have a lot…”
Tiwari: AI inference compute will shift toward decentralized clusters
“What you're seeing with inference is in many use cases, as this becomes more ubiquitous, you're going to have more and more decentralized inference clusters.”
Tiwari: Fortune 500 enterprises will demand dedicated AI factories
“Corporates fortune, you know, 500 AI companies that use a ton of compute will want dedicated AI factories associated with workloads that they run and that they have control over.”
Tiwari: Near-term AI power bottlenecks are electricians, steel, and physical components
“Like, you can't get steel. You can't get you can't find enough electricians to build out, you know, the power infrastructure. Substations, transformers, air chillers. These are, like, very specific power infrastructure needed to just get to a point where you c…”
Tiwari: Physical AI will require debt and project finance to scale
“And so I think the natural kind of extension of what we see is kind of what happened in the compute markets where you really needed flexible capital, where it wasn't just equity, it was debt and, you know, a variety of project finance to really scale capex. Yo…”
Tiwari: Enterprise software moats lie in system integration, not standalone features
“There are a number of applications that, you know, on paper sound really interesting, like, oh, yeah, I could just rebuild Slack or you could rebuild Salesforce or could rebuild, you know, X, Y, and Z. I think, you know, the, It's not just the product, it's th…”
Tiwari: CoreWeave Began Training OpenAI Models in Early 2023
“And as we entered twenty-twenty-three CoreWeave started to train models for OpenAI.”
Tiwari: Relying Purely on Equity to Fund AI CapEx Is Inefficient
“This is, you know, billions to trillions of dollars of CapEx, and just using equity dollars alone is not an efficient way to scale this. That's obviously massive dilution, you know, there's, it's not an easy problem to solve.”
Tiwari: AI Debt SPVs Now Blend Investment-Grade and Startup Counterparties
“Early on in the early days, these were all only investment grade counterparties because there was the space was so nascent, the operators had no experience. And I think now what you're starting to see is a blend of investment grade and non-investment grade.”
Tiwari: Enterprise AI reached about $37B total TAM last year
“So I think last year, enterprise AI had about thirty seven billion of total TAM and it's continuing to grow like crazy”
Tiwari: US power grid holds substantial stranded capacity from underused peaker plants
“I think there's actually quite a bit of stranded power across the grid, across the country, and what I mean by that is, You know, a lot of the utilities are built in a way where they're focused on peak power, right? So they've got natural gas peakers and they'…”
Tiwari: Sovereign AI Projects Often Lack Local Expertise to Scale GPU Compute
“And so those are the two nuances I think with Sovereigns is they need to find players that can rapidly scale compute In the, in their countries, and oftentimes they don't necessarily have these players that know how to build and scale GPU compute.”
Tiwari: SaaS trades at multi-year valuation lows despite margin expansion
“From a free cashflow perspective, SaaS companies are valued at the lowest they've been in, in, in years, you know, and there's a huge margin difference between You know, what those rev multiples are today and what they've been in the past. And so free cashflow…”