The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: Anthropic has surpassed OpenAI in API revenue
“Anthropic has eclipsed OpenAI and API revenue, and their API revenue is primarily not thinking. It's clawed for, but it's not in the thinking mode.”
Patel: Hyperscalers cannot replicate CPU and storage profit margins in GPUs
“Their ROIC is, like, extremely high on CPU and storage, and to assume that it can, like, translate over to GPUs is, is a bit of a fallacy, which is why a lot of these companies are moving in, right?”
Patel: Microsoft's AI hardware programs fail because Microsoft lacks model understanding
“There's a reason why Microsoft's hardware programs suck, right? Because they don't understand models at all.”
Patel: AMD cannot catch NVIDIA due to poor software, networking, and co-design
“Why is AMD not catching up despite being awesome at hardware engineering? Well, yeah, they're bad at networking, but also they suck at software and they can't do hardware software co-design.”
Patel: Microsoft dropped Stargate for OpenAI due to slow execution
“Microsoft is not building
Stargate for OpenAI, right? It's because it would have just been too slow, and they're doing it the lame and old way.”
Patel: Huawei Obtains TSMC Wafers via Shell Companies
“Huawei is still getting you know, wafers in Taiwan from TSMC through, like, shell companies, right?”
Patel: OpenAI's Model Is First US Open-Source Leader Since Llama 3.1 405B
“It's the first time America's had the best open source model in six months, nine months, a year. Llama, 3.14 or five B was the last time we had the best model.”
Patel: OpenAI o1 and o3 share basic architecture with GPT-4o
“For a long time, OpenAI was charging more per token for the reasoning model, right, O-one and O-three than they were for GPT-Four-O, even though the architecture is, like, basically the same. It's just the weights are different.”
Patel: Many VC-backed NeoClouds will fail from low utilization
“So a lot of these companies will fail, either because it no longer makes sense for them to continue to get venture funding, or they end up getting out-competed because they just can't get their utilization up, unlike, you know, some other clouds, right?”
Patel: Some NeoClouds beat AWS, Google, and Azure on software performance
“Actually some of these NeoClouds are better than Amazon and Google and Microsoft in terms of software.”
Patel: AMD, Trainium, or TPUs will beat chip startups as NVIDIA alternatives
“I probably think that like AMD GPUs or Amazon's Tranium will be probably more likely to be a best second choice. For people or Google TPU, of course, but I think Google is just more interested in it for internal workloads. I just think that those will be much …”
Patel: xAI reached a higher valuation than Anthropic without leading models
“What has XAI actually done to deserve their prior funding rounds?
They haven't released a leading edge model, right?
And yet their evaluation's higher than Anthropic today, right?”
Patel: DeepSeek inference requires 160 GPUs and $10 million per replica
“Like the DeepSeq implementation of inference is like a 160 GPUs or something like that, like that's over ten million dollars of Hardware. And then that's just one replica.”
Patel: Meta is deploying GPUs in temporary tent structures
“Meta is literally building these like temporary, like tent structures to put GPUs in because building the building takes too long
and it takes too much labor, right?”