The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 637 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 35 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Overnight AI intelligence explosion unlikely due to test-time compute bottlenecks
“And I don't think we're headed to that world largely because of the fact that the models rely so much on large scale test time compute. In order to achieve their greatest intelligence. If you, if it requires so much test time compute to unlock the full capabil…”
Zuckerberg: Curing all disease by end of century is too conservative
“But still, I mean, people thought that by the end of the century was a stretch. Now I think it's, like too conservative.”
Armstrong: The agentic economy will surpass the human economy
“It kind of stands to reason that the agentic economy will be bigger than the human economy at some point in the not too distant future as well.”
Armstrong predicts having children without embryo editing will eventually be considered abnormal
“I think it'll be more normal over time. And at some point it'll be abnormal To have children without doing this kind of screening and editing, because it'd be like, well, this is so risky.”
Taylor: Valar Atomics will turn on a new reactor every few minutes
“And we will get it down to minutes. This company will get, we'll get to the point where we have a new reactor turning on every few minutes.”
Taylor: Valar Atomics could be worth $500B in 10 years
“And, you know, we're sitting here right now, you know, less than three years from the founding of the company, and I think if you look back at 10 years in 10 years from now, and, you know, Valor's worth five hundred billion, something like that you will be abl…”
Taylor: Nuclear Fission Will Make Energy 1,000 Times Cheaper
“I know that nuclear fission will make energy a thousand times cheaper than it is today. Somebody will do that.”
Nadella: Data center buildout will ultimately lower energy prices long-term
“In fact, if anything, it's bringing down prices because long-term there's going to be a better grid. There is going to be more energy.”
Allaire: Double-Digit GDP Growth in the 2030s Is Achievable in Many Regions
“It does feel like we have the potential for double-digit GDP numbers in the twenty-thirties. Like, that's, that seems not unrealistic to me. Not that that's going to be uniform all around the world, but certainly in large, large parts of the world, that seems …”
Scaringe: Automakers failing at neural net autonomy will shrink to zero
“It's the companies that do this well will exist. The companies that don't do this well, like, I feel really strong on this. They will not exist. They will shrink to nothing. They'll asymptotically approach, you know, zero.”
Huang: Natural gas is probably the only viable power solution this decade
“We're going to need nuclear. Wind is not going to be enough. Solar is not going to be enough. Let's just all acknowledge that we'll take it. We'll take everything we can. But the fact that matters, I think for the next decade, natural gas, you know, is probabl…”
Huang: Chinese military is unlikely to use American tech
“And so that American technology, although general purpose it is unlikely to be used by their military because their military is too smart, just as our military is too smart to use their technology.”
Johnson: 2026 Will Be the Year YOLO Dies
“Ok, my prediction for twenty-twenty-six is it will be the year that YOLO dies. We will begin transforming ourselves from a you only live once to don't die.”
Hendrycks: U.S. and China may launch preemptive cyberattacks on data centers
“I think that later on, it becomes so destabilizing that China just says, we're going to do something preemptive, like do a cyber attack on your data center. And the U.S. Might do that to China.”
Nikesh Arora: Incumbents will squeeze AI security startups out of existence
“The current startups you mentioned like startups that are trying to do what AI wrappers are trying to do on LLMs. And over time we're going to get better and better where we're going to squeeze their capability over time that you wouldn't need them.”
Arora predicts 80% to 90% of customer support eliminated in 2-5 years
“I think in concept from a north star perspective, we should be able to take 80, 90% of customer support out in the next two to five years across the landscape.”
Liemandt: 90% of Students Given ChatGPT in School Will Use It to Cheat
“If you give kids ChatGPT in school and academics, 90% will use it for cheating.”
Liemandt: A $500 student incentive program can fix US test scores
“For 400 dollars, maybe 500 dollars of incentive. Remember average education, right? We spend lots of, we spend up to 20 grand a kid. 500 bucks. We can totally fix and change the trajectory and all these bad test scores and all of that by making sure we're moti…”
Kushner: Trump and Witkoff Will Successfully Resolve the Gaza Conflict
“We need to get the Gaza issue resolved, and I know President Trump and Steve Wyckoff are working incredibly hard on that, and I do believe that they will be successful, and then big progress will be made soon thereafter.”
Prince: Cloudflare will soon publicly expose misbehaving AI scraping companies
“So, you know, watch our blog, and I have a feeling that some prominent AI companies that are misbehaving are Can get called out pretty soon.”
Hendrycks: Extreme AI export controls make a Taiwan invasion more likely
“If you turn the pain dial all the way up for China in export controls and if AI chips are the currency of economic power in the future, then this increases the probability that they want to invade Taiwan.”
Hendrycks: China will steal model weights even if chip controls succeed
“Even so, I still think if you really tighten the export controls, you made it so that China can't get any of those chips at all, and this is your, one of your biggest priorities, they're just going to steal the weights anyway.”
Hsu: High-throughput token generation will dominate biology over mechanistic research
“The vast majority of, you know, mechanistic data that's been generated to date is really made to ask very specific, very well scoped questions and just, you know, way more tokens per experiment is, you know, just, it's just going to be the way to do it.”
Vogt: Claims That Mostly Autonomous Systems Cannot Reach Full Autonomy Are Wrong
“That statement is, is almost certainly wrong given a long enough time span.”
Wang: The path to AGI resembles curing cancer, not a vaccine
“My biggest belief here is that the path to AGI is is one that looks a lot more like curing cancer than developing a vaccine. And what I mean by that is I think that the path to build AGI is going to be in, in, you know, you're going to have to solve a bunch of…”
Ejeckam: AI data center demand will crash the grid without novel cooling
“We believe that a consciousness that if a material science and more specifically a physics or chemistry approach to solving the heat problem is not used today, that the needs of AI data centers around the world is based on projections today will crash the grid…”
Huang: In 2-3 years, every science breakthrough will use generative AI
“If we give ourselves another couple, two, three years, the world's going to change. There's not going to be one paper There's not going to be one breakthrough in science, one breakthrough in engineering where generative AI isn't at the foundation of it. I'm fa…”
Steinberger: It will eventually be responsible to replace human CEOs with AI
“There'll be some CEO system, and then, like, the responsible decision will be to, you know, like, have that thing be the CEO, and then, so that will happen at some point.”
Franceschi: Human-level AI will eliminate the need for traditional ERP systems
“And I think as you bring a lot of that data with, you know, assuming AI will get there and essentially operate with human level performance, you won't need anymore this concept of an ERP, and then you effectively have sort of this real time layer into what's h…”
Knoop: Purely scaling language models will not achieve AGI
“Scaling language models purely will not get there.”
Knoop: ARC solution will likely need under 10k code lines, not massive LLMs
“It's quite likely actually that the solution it can be like written in like 10,000 lines of code or less. And it's not gonna require these like, you know, gigantic You know, two hundred billion large parameter models in order to solve it.”
Alexandr Wang: Achieving AGI will take multiple decades of solving individual problems.
“My biggest belief here is that the path to AGI is is one that looks a lot more like curing cancer than developing a vaccine. And what I mean by that is I think that the path to build AGI is going to be in, in, you know, you're going to have to solve a bunch of…”
Scott Wu: AI will lead to more software engineers, not fewer
“I think if anything, there's going to be more engineers, not less and I'll kind of give two reasons why. I think the first is there's just so much demand for engineering out there and so much demand, honestly, even in ways that we don't always think about, rig…”
Peebles: Sora will evolve into interactive world simulators with autonomous humans
“And so looking forward, as we continue to scale up models like Sora, we think we're going to be able to build these, like, world simulators, where essentially, you know, anybody can interact with them. I, as a human, can have my own simulator running, and I ca…”
Peebles: Video models will eventually surpass humans as physical world models
“We're optimistic that Sora will, you know, supersede that kind of capability and will, you know, in the long run enable it to be More intelligent one day than humans as world models.”
Mensch: AI will not trigger the next pandemic; climate change will
“I don't think AI is going to be the one triggering the next pandemic. It's always going to be climate change.”
Polosukhin: AI agent CEOs will run organizations and replace middle management
“I really think one of the most interesting cases is organizations that are run completely by AI, right? Where quote unquote CEO role is taken by AI agent. Who's tasked by, you know, by community or board of directors or whatever is oversight governance is to, …”
Scott and Altman suspect the next trillion-dollar company is founded in 2023
“You know, one of the things that Sam Altman and I have talked about a lot is like, I suspect that this year, like the next trillion dollar company gets founded.”
All Base Foundation Models Will Ultimately Open Source Their Pre-Training Phase
“So my take is that foundation models will all be open source for the deep learning phase.”
Emerging Market AI Systems Will Outperform the West Within Five Years
“I am certain that system will outperform anything in the West within five years.”
Small Hive Architecture AI Models Will Massively Outperform Large Monolithic Models
“I think that small models will outperform large models massively, like I said, the Hive model aspect”
Gil: AI poses no existential threat to humanity within ten years
“So you need physical form for the AI in order for it to truly be an existential threat. And that's why if I were to focus on an area, it'd probably be robotics or something like that, because that's where you suddenly give physical form to something. And if yo…”
Srinivas: AI search will incentivize publishers to create higher-quality content
“I think it's just going to incentivize people to publish higher quality content. In order to get cited by an LLM powered answer, like Substack or things like that try to do, like you want to own your content and you publish it and make sure it's high quality a…”
Armstrong predicts AI agents will outnumber humans in near future
“I, there'll be more agents than humans in the not too distant future.”
Armstrong: Private credit, treasuries, and deposits will all be tokenized
“Private credit and treasuries and bank deposits, like everything's going to get tokenized. And it, it's just going to mean that financial services is going to have modern, modern rails to run on.”
Haas: AI Could Automate Simple Chip Design to GDSII in 5+ Years
“I don't know if it's in two to three years away, but five plus years, can you go from idea to a GDS two file being the file that you actually send to the fab to go get built. For certain designs, quite possible. So it takes that whole design piece out of the w…”