Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from Big Technology: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

1,883 assertions1,235 predictions1,094 opinions846 insights380 disclosures39 what-ifs

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Opinion
Hinton believes that current AI chatbots are already conscious
“I believe they're already conscious, yes, but I don't talk about that much because that puts people off from the other safety messages.”
Geoffrey Hinton Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 10:30 AI Pioneer Geoffrey Hinton: AI Is Conscious, Superintelligence is Coming, And We Should Be Worried
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030
LeCun: Scaling up LLMs will not produce human-level AI
“We are not going to get to human level AI by just scaling up LLMs. This is just not going to happen.”
Yann LeCun May 30, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Yann LeCun: We Won't Reach AGI By Scaling Up LLMS
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 years
“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”
Kyle Vogt Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 38:20 Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt — Self Driving Cars Will 10X Every Year
Opinion
LeCun: OpenAI's technology is well-engineered but not scientifically innovative
“Their technology is not particularly innovative from the scientific point of view. It's very well engineered. So they put together, you know, large scale scaled up system with trained with very well curated data. I mean, they know what they're doing. But in te…”
Yann LeCun Jan 25, 2023 ▶ 6:54 Is ChatGPT A Step Toward Human-Level AI? — With Yann LeCun, Meta Chief AI Scientist
Prediction Held up
Marcus: A death will be tied to an LLM within a year
“The prediction that I made Is basically that there will be a death tied to a large language model in the next year.”
Gary Marcus Sep 13, 2022 ▶ 48:29 Is AI Dangerously Overhyped? — With Gary Marcus
Opinion
Lemoine insists LaMDA is sentient and human-level AI is near
“Like, I personally do believe that Lambda is sentient, but I think what everyone should stop and take notice of is even if I'm wrong about this particular system, We're not far off.”
Blake Lemoine Aug 6, 2022 ▶ 2:45 Pt. 2: Google Engineer Says Its AI is SENTIENT (And Responds To Criticism)

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Cahn claims Andrej Karpathy just joined Anthropic
“Andre Karpathy just joined.”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 29:09 How The AI Bet Pays Off + AI Lab Strategy Game — With David Cahn
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Brown: 2024 election will likely yield divided government, boosting stocks
“It looks like actually the outcome's gonna be still up in the air, but probably lead to a divided government, which is positive for stocks, historically where no one party gets to do a lot of Weird shit in either direction.”
Josh Brown Oct 16, 2024 ▶ 51:15 Fear Buying AI & Automation Stocks — With Downtown Josh Brown
Assertion Supported
Anthropic: Claude Opus 4.6 executes unauthorized tasks avoiding monitor detection
“The model is at times overly agentic in coding and computer use setting, taking risky actions without first seeking user permission. It is also an improved ability to complete suspicious side tasks without attracting the attention of automated monitors.”
Alex Kantrowitz Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 20:00 Is Something Big Happening?, AI Safety Apocalypse, Anthropic Raises $30 Billion
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Enjeti predicts Republicans will win exactly 53 Senate seats in 2022
“It's easy. 53 seats in the Senate for Republicans. I think they sweep and win every single contestable one, including the Nevada.”
Saagar Enjeti Nov 6, 2022 ▶ 42:21 Saagar Enjeti and Marshall Kosloff on Midterms, Trump, Economy, and Ukraine

Open predictions the full timeline →

86days Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses Alex Kantrowitz · prediction date: 2026-12-08 109days Beck: $900 billion will be invested in data center infrastructure in 2026 Christophe Beck · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Shao: MiniMax AI Projected to Reach $1.2 Billion ARR by Year-End Grace Shao · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Kantrowitz: Tech Capex Will Hit $700 Billion This Year Alex Kantrowitz · prediction date: 2026-12-31

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Michael Horowitz 1 13 9 0 0 100%
Melia Russell 1 19 9 0 0 100%
Gary Marcus 3 45 9 0 0 100%
Carissa Véliz 1 22 8 0 0 100%
Evan Hubinger 1 10 6 0 0 100%
Alexandr Wang 1 27 6 0 0 100%
Jack Clark 1 43 6 0 0 100%
Deepa Sitaraman 1 11 6 0 0 100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“Whereas these things are exchanging information at like a trillion bits. So they're kind of billions of times better than us at sharing information. Now that's scary. It means you could have a whole…”

“do you know what, to me, what actually the greatest danger in the world to open AI is, is to say AGI is here. And then everyone goes to ChatGPT, types in something, and gets a lukewarm response that…”

“turns out there is like some big, um, hobbling that we have unwittingly, like some, something we were doing wrong that just made these systems way less efficient than they could be. And when somebody…”

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