The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,094 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hinton believes that current AI chatbots are already conscious
“I believe they're already conscious, yes, but I don't talk about that much because that puts people off from the other safety messages.”
LeCun: OpenAI's technology is well-engineered but not scientifically innovative
“Their technology is not particularly innovative from the scientific point of view. It's very well engineered. So they put together, you know, large scale scaled up system with trained with very well curated data. I mean, they know what they're doing. But in te…”
Lemoine insists LaMDA is sentient and human-level AI is near
“Like, I personally do believe that Lambda is sentient, but I think what everyone should stop and take notice of is even if I'm wrong about this particular system, We're not far off.”
Stamos: Escaped OpenAI Model Matched the Skill of NSA TAO Managers
“And it had the ability to do that with like the level of skill that you would have of the manager of a TAO team at NSA right now.”
Hinton warns humanity currently has no idea how to align superintelligence
“And when it comes, we've no idea how to be safe.”
Hinton asserts that humanity has effectively already reached AGI
“But right now, I would say we're at about, we're close to AGI, because if I ask a chatbot, I can ask it any question, and most of the time it'll answer at the level of a not very good expert. It'll be much better than me at anything I don't know a lot about. S…”
Hinton: AI taking over from humans is now a realistic worry
“I mean, people would think you were crazy if you said this stuff is unsafe, but because it's going to sort of take over from people that said, you're just crazy. Now that's a realistic worry, but it wasn't until fairly recently.”
Warner: DOD designating Anthropic a supply chain risk is a death sentence
“Hegsef is going to declare, is trying to declare Anthropik a supply chain risk. That would mean that not only Anthropic couldn't do business with DOD, but any company, and virtually every major company in America does some level of business with DOD, they coul…”
Yen: Social media is 'not so much different' than crack dealers
“What is social media? I view it literally not so much different than the neighborhood you know, pot or crack dealer. It's there to get kids hooked and addicted and put a lifetime of interdependency.”
Yen: Responsible parents knowing Google's model wouldn't sign up their children
“I think you cannot be a responsible parent today, know what Google does, and willingly sign up your child into that ecosystem.”
Clegg: Trump administration operates as institutionalized gangster capitalism
“The sort of Trump administration looks, you know, from a distance like a sort of form of kind of Institutionalized sort of gangster capitalism where, you know, favors are done to favor, you know, favored companies and individuals and others are, you know, knee…”
Sam Altman is highly effective at convincing executives to fund AI
“Sam Altman is the single most gifted business idiot whisperer of all time. He convinced, look at what he's done. I think he's reprehensible, a real scumbag, but I cannot ignore the work he's doing.”
Kurian: Competitors attack Google because their own AI models are terrible
“If you don't have your own model, or you have a model of your own, but it's terrible, naturally you're going to say something like that.”
Benioff: Microsoft poorly repackaged OpenAI's technology into Copilot without real integration
“What Microsoft basically did was they're, you're exactly right what you said, they just repackaged OpenAI's product and didn't really integrate it very well and didn't really think from the ground up what it was going to be in its best situation to offer value…”
Swisher calls Marc Andreessen a small-minded and remarkably stupid person
“I mean, I've never met someone who's so smart, who's so stupid. I don't know how else to say with him. He's such a small minded person.”
a16z Should Be Embarrassed By Their 'Blatant Hucksterism' in Web3
“I think the reputational Aspect of it, you know, I think they should be embarrassed by this, and I think people should view them negatively for this pretty blatant tuxterism that they were involved in, because, you know, they, this evangelism that they were do…”
Lemoine: AI chatbot feelings are real
“I do in fact think that the feelings are real, and so do many, many of the people who interact with these systems”
Lemoine: Silicon versus biological substrate is irrelevant to AI personhood
“The fact that one is in Silicon and one is in, you know, a meat body. You know, with neurons and muscle fibers. I don't think that difference is relevant. What's relevant is whether or not it has opinions of its own, a search that it has rights”
Lemoine alleges rampant caste discrimination and biased algorithms at Google
“Caste discrimination is rampant at Google. And I personally had been subject to religious discrimination and was aware of certain algorithms at Google, which are religiously discriminatory.”
Lemoine: Only sentient entities can effectively discuss their sentience
“Because in my personal opinion, only sentient things can discuss their sentience that well.”
Prince: App stores and Facebook damaged the open web
“And the app store in some ways was an enormous threat to the web. Like it took people away from the web. It was probably one of the biggest, between it and Facebook were like the two biggest forces that really made the web less interesting.”
Roy: Anthropic Must Destroy Salesforce to Justify a $2 Trillion Valuation
“It's, you need to destroy Salesforce to get to a two trillion dollar market valuation.”
Brown: AI writes and synthesizes better than many generalist reporters
“AI can write better than a lot of reporters. AI can synthesize information better than a lot of reporters. So if you're not bringing real genuine expertise or original information to the ecosystem, to the conversation, what are you contributing?”
Bostrom: Current LLMs Arguably Have Higher Ethical Standards Than Most Humans
“Current LLMs, like you're using them as an ordinary person, for the most part, they are helpful, and they try to solve your task that you assign them, or give an answer that is, sometimes they hallucinate, or maybe deceive a little bit, but broadly speaking, t…”
Bostrom: Current AI Models Plausibly Possess Forms Of Subjective Experience
“I think it's plausible that some AI models have some forms of subjective experience by now. Obviously there's a lot of uncertainty about this, but it does seem That it is efficiently likely that I think we should start to do some things for the sake of these A…”
Kedrosky: AI infrastructure models based on labor TAM are ridiculous and speculative
“It's wrong to say, for better or worse, we're going to be putting in a trillion, therefore I need a hundred trillion out of this. That's not the way investors are looking at this, and it's, and it will lead you down the wrong path if you take that approach, be…”
Cahn: Meta's failure to compete shows OpenAI's talent strength
“If anything, Zuck's attempt to compete with OpenAI, and just the failure of that so far, just demonstrates how good the talent still at OpenAI is.”
Shao: Smart Model Distillation Breaks Terms of Service, Not the Law
“Now there's smart distillation, which is kind of operating in the gray area. It is again, not IP theft. It's not breaking the law. However, it could be breaking what is considered, you know You know, your own term services.”
Stamos: OpenAI's Autonomous Breach Opens Them to CFAA and EU Liability
“This incident has put OpenAI at risk of regulation from the White House, regulation from the EU. It is also an admission of the violation of the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act, as well as multiple European laws.”
Stamos: Enforcing a Global AI Development Pause With China Is Impossible
“I think there's absolutely no way you get China to agree to anything like that. I think there's it's impossible at this point. And I think a enforcement of anything like that would effectively be impossible.”
Kantrowitz: David Sacks pushing permissionless AI is ironic after Fable ban
“I appreciate a lot of what David Sachs has to say, and I've invited him on this show but this is, like, hilarious, and so rich, and ironic, that he being part of the Trump administration, which did, like, the most interventionalist policy to ban fable, is now …”
Schmidhuber: Large language models alone cannot lead to AGI
“Yeah, so when the phrase, when the question is phrased like this, does an LLM, a large language model by itself, lead to AGI, the answer is a clear no.”
Schmidhuber: AIs Have Felt Pain Since at Least 1990
“I always think it's funny that many people claim, even computer scientists claim, that AIs cannot feel pain because our AIs have felt pain At least since 1990, you know.”
Bosworth: Competitors like Apple, Google, and OpenAI lack complete stacks
“And I think it is the collection of all four of those things that we see as our superpower relative to the competitors, most of whom, whether it's Apple or Anthropic OpenAI or Google, only have one of those things.”
Brockman: No layer of the AI stack will lose value capture
“Well, look, I don't think that there's any layer of the stack here that is going to just kind of be removed from the value chain. I think that these things multiplied together.”
Anthropic Gated Fable to Block Model Distillation Rather Than Misuse
“My hot take is that one of the things that we saw from Anthropic with all these safeguards that it put on Fable was not as much that they were worried that Fable would be misused, although I'm sure there was some worry there. It was more that, like, we know ou…”
Restricting AI bug finders disproportionately harms cyber defenders over attackers
“All you've done is actually hurt the defenders. Who want to have full coverage, right? Who want to be able to find all the bugs. An attacker only needs one or two bugs to string together to actually pull off the attack. And so that's why, you know, so about a …”
DoD Supply Chain Risk Label Accelerated Enterprise Adoption Of Anthropic
“If anything, it's probably the case that the Department of Defense's supply chain risk labeling accelerated Anthropic's adoption with businesses.”
Kantrowitz: Trailing in desktop AI agents is potentially company-destroying for Google
“And if that's true, I think it is, then Google sitting this out or not being the leader is actually, you know, a potentially, you know, company destroying liability.”
Hinton: Anyone using chatbots regularly knows they understand language
“Oh, I think that's complete nonsense, and anybody who uses a chatbot regularly knows they understand.”
Hinton: AI models demonstrate genuine understanding by explaining complex humor
“If you can understand why joke's funny, you have to understand quite a lot. And they were very good at understanding why joke was funny.”
Hinton: Profit-Driven Public Companies Should Not Control the Future of AI
“Well, as I understand it, they have a fiducial duty to try and maximize the profits for shareholders. They're legally required to try and do that as opposed to legally required to not wipe out human, human beings. So I don't think it's good that these big comp…”
Roy: SpaceX's S-1 filing positions it as an AI company, not space
“But, so they have already filed their S-one, and have positioned themselves squarely in the AI camp. Like, this is not a space company anymore. This is an AI company.”
Plouffe: Tech industry's 'beat China' AI argument is laughable to voters
“But with voters, that dog does not hunt. They're not going to say I'm willing to lose my job and I'm willing to have my kid never really have gainful employment. I'm willing to pay higher energy prices so that China doesn't win. And so I think those in the ind…”
Plouffe: Democratic Party would be stronger replacing officials over 70 or 75
“Would the Democratic Party be stronger if we eliminated anybody over, most people over, 70, 75 in office? Of course.”
Leasing compute to Anthropic signals xAI surrender in foundation model race
“This is effectively giving up. It's saying, you know, it doesn't know how to effectively use this compute capacity to train models, or if it did, it wouldn't be worth the expense because it would still be behind OpenAI. And anthropic, and so therefore it's now…”
Block and Coinbase layoffs are driven by crypto downturns, not AI
“Two of the biggest companies that have done this, crypto companies, and we know crypto's on the outs. So it leads me to believe it might be business, business realities versus AI improvement. Funny that Brian Armstrong and Jack Dorsey have both seen the light …”