The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Alex Kantrowitz (38)M.G. Siegler (14)Ranjan Roy (6)Mustafa Suleyman (5)Aaron Levie (5)Yann LeCun (3)Tom Eggemeier (3)Stephen Morris (3)Peter Diamandis (3)Noland Arbaugh (3)Matthew Prince (3)Geoffrey Hinton (3)
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Next up (66)
86 days left 2026-12-08
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Siegler: OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will probably be delayed to 2027
“In terms of OpenAI and Anthropic, I just think that beyond where their businesses are at and with these now massive fundraisers, as we're talking about, like, I think that it will push it out a little bit. And the real, Wild card is obviously, as it always is,…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
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142 days left 2027-02-02
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286 days left 2027-06-26
Brockman: Today's frontier AI intelligence will be much cheaper within a year
“I think the thing you should anticipate is that over a year long time horizon to get to today's level of intelligence that feels very premier, it's going to be much cheaper. But there's going to be a new thing that is going to be so much better.”
290 days left 2027-06-30
320 days left 2027-07-30
Amodei: In a couple years, AI will be the world's biggest industry
“I actually think that, you know, as the revenues, as the economic business of AI ramps up and it's ramping up exponentially, you know, if I'm right in a couple years, it'll be the biggest source of revenue in the world, right? It'll be the biggest industry in …”
383 days left 2027-10-01
Guthrie: AI infrastructure will remain supply-constrained for the next two years
“With AI, we're still more supply constrained than we are demand constrained. And I think I, you know, I expect that to continue over the next couple of years as the technology continues to evolve and as people start to integrate AI into more and more workflows…”
413 days left 2027-10-31
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516 days left 2028-02-11
Sharp: AI model providers will launch competing telemetry products within 18 months
“I have a near 100% belief that the, that these companies will eventually want to compete with my business. And so, you know, I need them. I need their models. I need the intelligence that they're selling, but I'm, I have some very real concerns that, you know,…”
652 days left 2028-06-26
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Suleyman: AI data and training pipelines will become fully closed-loop within years
“So, it doesn't seem very far-fetched to say that in a few years time, at significant scale, That will get closed loop. And, you know, it'll be interesting to see you know, what happens and whether the quality bar can be maintained and whether performance does …”
840 days left 2028-12-31
840 days left 2028-12-31
Patel: 4x annual compute scaling cannot continue beyond 2028
“If you look at things like how much energy is there in the country, how much how many chips can TSMC produce and what fraction of them are already being used by AI. Even if you look at like raw GDP, like how much money does the world have? How much wealth does…”
877 days left 2029-02-06
1136 days left 2029-10-23
1228 days left 2030-01-23
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1276 days left 2030-03-12
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Eggemeier: Human support headcount will remain flat despite 80% AI automation
“And so what we think is going to happen to our interactions are going to go massively up. We're going to help companies automate 80% of them, and you're going to have about the same amount of human beings that you had before in the human agent role because of …”
1444 days left 2030-08-27
1453 days left 2030-09-05
Mager: Precision and other BCIs will reach market within five years
“We expect within five years there to be precision system on the market and maybe one or two others that are making a big clinical impact for people who are severely paralyzed and then expanding from the sort of two and a half billion dollar a year market that …”
1506 days left 2030-10-28
1570 days left 2030-12-31
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Link: AWS and advertising will reach 31% of Amazon's revenue by 2030
“AWS Growing 19, 20% with 33% margins. You have advertising growing up low double digits with 50% margins, and collectively those two businesses are, right now, they are about 24% of total revenue. That's gonna get to 31% by the end of this decade”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Global software developers will reach one billion by 2030
“And I think AI is going to accelerate that massively. And, you know, one billion developers by 2030 or so is a little bit under 10% of the population, depending on where the world's population is going. That's actually a low number if you think about it, becau…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Gelsinger: Global chip production will reach 50/50 East-West balance by 2030
“By the end of the decade, so, you know, seven, eight years, I think we can get close to fifty-fifty by the end of the decade, and if we accomplish that, right, over a seven or eight year period, I think the world is going to sleep much better at night”
1655 days left 2031-03-26
Warner predicts AI will push recent college graduate unemployment to 30%
“We're at about nine percent recent college graduate unemployment. I think that number will actually go to 30%, and the economic disruption that will have not only on those young people that don't get jobs, but their parents who help finance their college educa…”
1747 days left 2031-06-26
Levie: Governments will evaluate and green-light AI model releases within 3-5 years
“I think practically in the next three to five years, we probably have to end up in an environment where models do get evaluated by the government. There is a sort of collaborative approach between the government and research and the labs. You know, the governm…”
1815 days left 2031-09-02
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Baratz: Error-corrected gate-model quantum computers are 7 to 10 years away
“We think we're looking at seven to 10 years to get to the point where we have Truly error corrected scaled gate model, quantum computers that are capable of doing things like Helping you develop designer drugs, a drug designed for you to dramatically improve y…”
3450 days left 2036-02-23
Levie: Total AI market cap will reach tens of trillions of dollars
“We're talking about a category where, you know, it'll be measured in the tens of trillions of dollars. The market caps that will be generated by AI. Some of that will go to the chip providers. Some of that will go to the supply chain of the chip providers. Som…”
3544 days left 2036-05-27
3607 days left 2036-07-29
Shao: Mass-Market Humanoid Robot Deployment Is 10 Years Away, Not Five
“People love to hype about it. They're saying, look, human robots are going to be deployed in the next three to five years in the mass market. He gave me a rough number of 10 years again, and I believe him, because I've seen a lot of these robots. They frankly …”
5223 days left 2040-12-31
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Diamandis: Longevity Escape Velocity Will Be Reached in About 20 Years
“Ray Kurzweil's prediction is 2030, which is insanely close, right? Why? It's because AI is going to help us understand why we age, how to slow it, how to stop it, how to reverse it. George Church puts it at some 15 years out. David Sinclair is in that same are…”
7191 days left 2046-05-22
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Marcus: Machines will convincingly conduct podcast interviews within 30 years
“And some point I'm going to say, 30 years from now. We'll be able to make machines that do podcast interviews and I won't really know. I don't really know if you're a person fake or, you know, machine faking me out or whatever at some point.”
17089 days left 2073-06-27
Stockton Rush: The Titanic wreck will deteriorate into rust within 50 years
“I had a long conversation with Stockton Rush about this, and he said, I think that the people who object are wrong, because first of all, this wreck won't be there in 50 years. It's gonna be a lump of Rust. And if we're not there filming it, shooting it, makin…”
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Prince: Google Paying Publishers for AI Scraping Is Inevitable
“I don't know if they'll pay up before the deadline, but I think it's inevitable that they'll pay up. Because again, I think that they need the content and they understand fundamentally that journalists and content creators and academics deserve to eat.”
Brockman: Future voice AI will process input and output simultaneously
“The obvious thing that you want to accomplish is a model An AI that works much more like you and I do, right? That's able to process input at the same time it's processing output. And all of that is, of course, something that many people in this field are tryi…”
Kantrowitz: AI platforms will inevitably use personal interaction data for targeted ads
“So will AIs build an amazing sort of profile of you based off of all the personal data and then use that for ads? Most certainly.”
Plouffe: Expect halted data centers and statewide moratoriums in 3-5 years
“I'd imagine over the next three to five years, you'll see some stopped and some of those might be statewide moratoriums.”
Amon: AI inference will eventually surpass training in data centers
“Eventually inference is going to take over training because Just think about that for a second. If you're a company spending billions of dollars building a data center for training, you expect to get a return on that investment. So when you start putting AI in…”
Mensch: Consumer AI will build an ad business, unlike Mistral's focus
“Well, yes, I think on consumer side, on the consumer side, because AI is starting to be well, it's becoming the way you access information. You basically have an ads business to be built, and that's pretty clearly going to be built. It's not the focus of our c…”
Kantrowitz: Humans will violently attack and destroy humanoid robots
“Well, I think we will definitely have a war among people and humanoid robots. It's without a doubt. Even if the humanoid robots don't assemble into the army, people will knock these things out and they're already burning Waymos. People don't like robots. They …”
Ramji: AI Agents Will Soon Execute Tasks Running for Days or Weeks
“So whether it's minutes, hours, I think there'll be some tasks that will run for days or weeks.
Really?
Yeah.
So we're just gonna, we'll come to that kind of use case soon, and it'll be super interesting, because, you know, all these models are getting large, …”
Prince: AI will generate hyper-customized podcasts in personalized voices
“We're going to want to have hyper-customized podcasts that are in exactly the voice that we find the most reassuring and AIs are going to create that for us.”
Petersen: Warehouse robots most likely will not be humanoid
“Humanoid actually doesn't solve a lot of problems because you don't get more density out of your warehouse. You want real estate density. You want to be able to stack the goods all the way to the ceiling, jam them in. So it's more, the form factor is not going…”
Kantrowitz: Humanoid robots will be programmed not to fight back
“I mean, they're not going to be programmed to fight back. Like all this alignment work is going to be done for them not to fight back.”
Kurian: Cloud adoption will definitely surpass 50% of IT workloads
“We definitely see it getting north of 50%.”
Suleyman: GPT-4 and GPT-4o Efficiency Will Improve 100x
“So I expect that to happen for GPT-IV, GPT-IV-O and all of the other models down the road.”
Wang: AI will eventually formulate hypotheses, run tests, and conduct research autonomously
“Eventually It'll be able to start making its own hypotheses, running those tests on its own, and sort of ultimately making its own sort of discoveries or realizations or sort of conduct its own research.”
Bosworth: Wrist neural interfaces will eventually work without physical gestures
“Over time, we think we can do that without having any gestures at all. Just having the intention, expressing the intention down your control system.”
Siegler: iPhone Pro will retain a better camera system than foldable iPhone
“The pro will continue to have the best camera system. Largely, it seems like simply because of laws of physics, right? And the way that the foldable is gonna be more space constrained you know, by the, by its nature.”
Beck: New chip generations demand 10x more power every ten months
“We know from all the chief manufacturers or designers, all the famous names that we're familiar with. Well, they're coming with new generations. Every 10 months, roughly now, and every 10 months the power is multiplied by 10, and that's becoming six months, an…”
Beck: Next-gen data centers will use no more water than a car wash
“The way we share it with politicians in our areas, for instance, to say, well, the new data center are not going to use more water than a car wash.”
Diamandis: Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire
“Elon will be the first trillionaire out there.”
Future AI models will fix code vulnerabilities across multiple files simultaneously
“And as you have more powerful models, you can do that in across multiple files, basically solving the issue, not just in one place, but in multiple places.”
Costolo: SpaceX could be worth over $2T on day one
“When SpaceX goes public, and I think it'll actually, could you could, it could end up being worth over two trillion dollars on day one, whether that's a fake price or not.”