Opinion
Sam Altman is positioning OpenAI as a peace broker for Pentagon contracts
“He's trying to position this as like, they are the peace broker here, right? Like that they are the ones who are going to sort of iron out these differences between anthropic and the U S government by cutting their own deal that paves the path. To sort of do a…”
Opinion
Siegler: Apple lacks the internal mentality and cadence for AI
“One of the reasons that I would worry about Apple going forward is they don't have the right internal mentality about doing this stuff, and you can see it in the sort of products that they've shipped to date, specifically, obviously, with Siri, Where they're c…”
Assertion Supported
Siegler: OpenAI no longer has an AGI clause with Microsoft
“OpenAI, as noted, no longer has the AGI clause with Microsoft, so they can sort of do whatever they want now, and just declare AGI here, here, or there, and it doesn't impact anything beyond public perception”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft Shifted CapEx to OpEx by Extending Data Center Leases
“In this quarter, they decided that they were going to basically change the way that they account for their data center leases. And so historically they've actually Considered them to be 15 years. And that basically meant that they were you know, taking on the …”
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Michael Burry Shorts Tech Over Server Depreciation Accounting
“Michael Burry you know, famously from Big Short has sort of talked about this as a reason why he's shorting a lot of these companies, because he believes that they're sort of doing funny money, funny math on, on a lot of these a lot of these schedules for Micr…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: Frontier AI models face diminishing returns despite massive costs
“Everyone's starting to recognize that there might be a world in which like, you don't want to have the frontier models because you're in charge of the cost of that. And the returns are going to be more and more diminishing over time now.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: AI agent landscape will fragment across multiple walled-garden tools
“I worry that we're going to not get a seamless move into like a one single place where we can do all of this, like the sort of the pie in the sky version that you're talking about, where there's one tool, but instead we have to use like Three or four different…”
Assertion Contradicted
Siegler: Tying Gemini's crawler to Search gives Google massive content negotiation leverage
“Google's crawler is also tied to Google search. And so if you're turning off the crawler for Gemini you're potentially turning off Google search, which basically no one is willing to do at this point. And gives Google, you know, a huge leverage point. In, in a…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: OpenAI Faces Listing Trouble if Anthropic IPOs First
“If OpenAI goes out, if Anthropic goes out before OpenAI does, OpenAI is in a lot of trouble from a public listing perspective, just because we even talked about this when it was still just the notion that they would have a better bottom line, right? Like that …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: Apple Could Win AI Era Through iPhone Hardware Advantage
“I do still think that there is a very good chance that Apple ends up a quote unquote winner of the AI movement simply because of the iPhone, because it's the best device out there to run models potentially and to run these applications.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: Google's Full Stack Ownership Provides Massive Cost Advantages Over OpenAI
“Google's just overall owning of, again, that entire stack when it comes to the infrastructure is going to give them massive cost advantages over what OpenAI is going to be able to offer up at that steady state.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
MG Siegler predicts OpenAI and Anthropic will not IPO in 2026
“I actually predict as one of my year end predictions, I predicted that neither OpenAI nor Anthropic will go public in 20, 26.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fidji Simo could eventually replace Sam Altman as OpenAI CEO
“That's sort of why I've always
Sort of had in the back of my head that I would not be shocked if Fiji Simo is eventually sort of overall CEO and they just sort of have Sam Altman there because he's a vital still obviously from a fundraise perspective from so…”
Opinion
OpenAI's Codex enterprise business remains significantly smaller than Anthropic's Claude Code
“It seems like it's a fast growing business codex for them, but it's still not nearly, you know, as big as cloud code is.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Anthropic will beat OpenAI to launching a fully integrated agentic super app
“I, right now I would bet honestly on Anthropic doing it first, doing it better. But it really comes down to the timing of when open AI gets this super app out there.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
OpenAI and Anthropic must IPO eventually after tapping out private capital
“But the reality is like, given these numbers, open AI is going to need to go public. Like they need the capital and itthropic as well. Like they basically have tapped into all of the possible you know, private capital.”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI is struggling to raise debt for data centers due to unprofitability
“Because remember again, like open AI in particulars had a really hard time. And this was in some of the reporting today as well, like with regard to trying to build their own data centers, because they just, They don't have profits. Like what, how are they, yo…”
Opinion
Siegler: Apple's plan to power Siri with Gemini and third-party models is right
“They have obviously the deal in place with Google to use Gemini and Gemini is going to underpin
You know, the Siri models and now the new reports that they're going to allow other third parties potentially to come in there, including obviously they've already…”
Opinion
Apple risks permanently lacking the internal culture needed to compete in AI
“By not sort of competing in that space, while it may make a lot of sense financially, they run the real risk that they just never get the right DNA within the company and the right mentality to really be able to compete in, in AI. And if you believe that it's …”
Opinion
Meta struggles to gain product traction organically without relying on external acquisitions
“They just, they don't have a good track record over the past decade plus of launching new things, obviously with the metaverse being, you know, the prime example, but several other projects, they had a crypto project DM and You know, they've had many, many oth…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: Paramount-WBD Merger Will Bring Massive Layoffs and Brutal Decline
“Instead we're just going to get A straight down the middle sort of a combination of two studios, and that's just gonna be a lot of layoffs, and it's gonna be just this brutal sort of, you know, decline over a longer period of time.”
Prediction Held up
Siegler: Nvidia likely to participate in OpenAI's new round instead of $100B deal
“Actually with open AI doing their new fundraise, it's more likely that NVIDIA is just going to be a part of that fundraise.”
Insight
Siegler: Nvidia was likely acting as OpenAI's infrastructure debt guarantor
“To me, that seemed like what a big part of this deal was basically NVIDIA stepping in to be a, you know, a guarantor of the debt that, that opening AI would need to raise.”
Insight
Siegler: Microsoft and Amazon back multiple AI labs to stop Google
“I think these other major cloud players, at least the ones who have the rival clouds, specifically Microsoft and Amazon realize that yeah, they probably need to align around basically anyone who's not Google, right? They don't necessarily care if it, I mean, t…”
M.G. Siegler