May 5, 2026 · 57m · big-technology
Did Apple Get AI Spending Right?, Microsoft & OpenAI’s New Reality, Where’s Stargate?
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Alex Kantrowitz and MG Siegler analyze the strategic divergence in Big Tech AI investments, examining Apple's conservative CapEx and leadership transition alongside the renegotiated Microsoft-OpenAI partnership and the reality of Project Stargate.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Alex holds 30.2% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Alex as informed peer 5.4 Guest teaching 3.4 Guest disagreement 1.6 Alex pushing back 2.1
speaking balance: gold is Alex, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 30:27 MG questions whether Apple can execute on voice assistant transition
MG challenges optimistic assumptions regarding Apple's Siri rollout by comparing their ongoing technical delays to previous missteps by Amazon and Google.
Hardest push from Alex ▶ 41:02 Alex challenges Microsoft's decision to drop exclusivityAlex questions Microsoft's move to allow OpenAI to distribute top-tier models across AWS, arguing that giving up Azure's exclusive leverage is a strategic blunder regardless of partnership friction.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 42:02 MG unpacks the fine print of the Azure right-of-first-refusal clauseMG educates Alex on overlooked details in the revised contract, showing how Microsoft retained first-access rights for new model deployments before they hit competitors.
Alex holds their own ▶ 12:04 Alex articulates the dual scenarios facing Apple's AI commoditization betAlex demonstrates comprehensive domain analysis by breaking down whether Apple risks becoming a commoditized device maker or emerges victorious through open-source licensing and on-device execution.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Alex as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Alex pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple's AI Spending Dilemma and the Binary Bet | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Alex frames the comparison between Apple's modest CapEx and Meta's massive spending, citing specific industry estimates and quoting from MG's newsletter. MG elaborates on earnings reporting timelines and CapEx trends across big tech without confrontation. | |
| Future Scenarios for Apple's AI Strategy and Hardware | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Alex lays out two structured scenarios for Apple's AI future and pushes an argument about whether on-device compute weakens OpenAI's trillion-dollar infrastructure premise. MG builds on this by analyzing frontier model divergence versus open-source models. | |
| John Ternus Leadership Era and Potential CapEx Shifts | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Alex cites reporting by Mark Gurman on John Ternus's earnings call commentary regarding capital allocation and dividend policy. MG agrees with the premise, adding context on Apple's historical cash-neutral policy and Johny Srouji's promotion. | |
| Upcoming Siri Revamp, Smart Assistants, and Leadership Transition | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | The conversation shifts to upcoming Siri upgrades and household voice assistants, with Alex sharing personal anecdotes about Alexa Plus. MG details corporate governance tea leaves, specifically the Apple board extending retirement age limits for Levinson and Sugar. | |
| Microsoft and OpenAI's Evolving Partnership and AGI Clause | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | Alex questions Microsoft's strategic logic in relinquishing exclusivity to let OpenAI deploy on rival clouds like AWS and GCP. MG provides deep contractual insight, highlighting the overlooked clause giving Microsoft right of first refusal for Azure. | |
| OpenAI's Stargate Infrastructure Realities and Cloud Dependencies | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Alex explores how OpenAI's shift from building data centers to securing third-party capacity transfers risk to neoclouds like CoreWeave and Nebius. MG outlines OpenAI's messaging shift around Project Stargate and the long-term infrastructure advantage held by Google. | |
| Episode Conclusion, Newsletter Promotion, and Upcoming Lawsuit Coverage | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Alex wraps up the monthly discussion, pitches MG's newsletter Spyglass, and briefly defers covering the Musk-Altman lawsuit until June. |
Statements from this episode (14)
Siegler: Amazon and Google Guide Toward $190 Billion in Annual CapEx
“Amazon and Google are, I think are both guiding towards a hundred and ninety billion now.
and that's, this gets updated every single quarter.
So they very well could spend well over two hundred billion for what ends up being the year, and Microsoft will be ri…”
Siegler: Apple Made the Right Bet Partnering on Search Over Building Bing
“Apple decided they didn't need to build a search engine, and that's worked out great for them, right?
Microsoft famously has spent billions and billions building up Bing, and what have they gotten out of it?
I mean, it makes money now, but it's not Google, and…”
Kantrowitz: Amazon Nova Foundation Model Has Gained Zero Traction
“Amazon Nova has gone nowhere. Most people don't even realize that Amazon has a foundational model.”
Siegler: Apple Could Win AI Era Through iPhone Hardware Advantage
“I do still think that there is a very good chance that Apple ends up a quote unquote winner of the AI movement simply because of the iPhone, because it's the best device out there to run models potentially and to run these applications.”
Siegler: Apple will likely increase CapEx spending for AI inference
“I think that it's a reasonable assumption to make that they're going to start spending more on capex too. Even if they're not going to train models, they're not going to train an LLM inference and doing other things that you need to do.”
Kantrowitz: Apple Will Make Big Acquisitions in John Ternus's First Year
“I think Apple's gonna make some big acquisitions in Ternus' first year for him to set the tone that it's gonna be different, and I think that's good.”
Kantrowitz: Apple currently has a terrible AI product
“Right now, we're saying maybe Apple's making the right move but even still, they have a terrible AI product.”
Kantrowitz: Alexa Plus is the best assistant among major tech competitors
“I think Alexa plus is the best of the bunch.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Models Are Coming to Google Cloud Platform Soon
“And I anticipate, and you know, given my conversations that I've had with Thomas Curry and the head of Google cloud platform, that it will come to Google fairly soon as well. He wants it there.”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft has secured OpenAI IP rights through 2032
“And basically Microsoft has access to OpenAI's IP till 2032, and that is the state of the partnership today.”
Siegler: OpenAI owes Microsoft rev share even on AWS and Google
“While Microsoft no longer has to pay revenue share back to open AI still has to pay it to Microsoft and they have to pay it even when they're using AWS or potentially Google in the future.”
Siegler: OpenAI products must ship first on Azure under deal terms
“Microsoft remains open as primary cloud partner. And open AI products will ship first on Azure, unless Microsoft cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities.”
Kantrowitz: Neo-Cloud Providers Face Severe Risk Relying on OpenAI's Infrastructure Commitments
“The weakness in the whole story is your whole business is based off of OpenAI keeping this promise of building out the infrastructure. And last week in particular, when there was that Wall Street Journal report, which OpenAI pushed back on very strongly that l…”