The Calls

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Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

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142days to next prediction date

Everyone Alex Kantrowitz (38)M.G. Siegler (14)Ranjan Roy (6)Mustafa Suleyman (5)Aaron Levie (5)Yann LeCun (3)Tom Eggemeier (3)Stephen Morris (3)Peter Diamandis (3)Noland Arbaugh (3)Matthew Prince (3)Geoffrey Hinton (3)

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142 days left 2027-02-02

Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2027

Morris: Amazon Will Likely Execute Another Mass Layoff Within 12 Months

“I know the HR chief is trying to calm everyone down by saying this is not the new normal, but I would be very surprised as if this is the last mass layoff as Amazon we see in the next 12 months.”

Stephen Morris Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 43:32 The Anthropic Rocketship, AI’s Spending Limits, SpaceX IPO

Closed calls (2) the full record →

Prediction Held up

Morris: OpenAI will not declare GPT-5 as AGI

“I hate to make bold predictions, especially in tech, because you can often be spectacularly wrong, but I do not think they're going to say GPT-V is anything approaching AGI, however you choose to define it.”

Stephen Morris Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 12:19 Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars

Prediction Held up

Morris: Google Will Lose Exclusive Safari Search Deal from Antitrust Remedies

“They're going to have to share more data with rivals. They're going to lose the right to be Apple's exclusive search engine provider on Safari across its devices.”

Stephen Morris Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 49:08 Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars

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