The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Alex Kantrowitz (38)M.G. Siegler (14)Ranjan Roy (6)Mustafa Suleyman (5)Aaron Levie (5)Yann LeCun (3)Tom Eggemeier (3)Stephen Morris (3)Peter Diamandis (3)Noland Arbaugh (3)Matthew Prince (3)Geoffrey Hinton (3)
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Next up (5)
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Siegler: OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will probably be delayed to 2027
“In terms of OpenAI and Anthropic, I just think that beyond where their businesses are at and with these now massive fundraisers, as we're talking about, like, I think that it will push it out a little bit. And the real, Wild card is obviously, as it always is,…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
3310 days left 2035-10-06
Closed calls (10) the full record →
Siegler: iPhone Pro will retain a better camera system than foldable iPhone
“The pro will continue to have the best camera system. Largely, it seems like simply because of laws of physics, right? And the way that the foldable is gonna be more space constrained you know, by the, by its nature.”
Siegler: Apple's next CEO will be John Ternus or Craig Federighi
“It has to be sort of between those two, between Ternus and Federighi. But everyone, you know, all the reporting points to Ternus. And so you have to believe that that's the thing.”
Siegler: Tim Cook will become Apple chairman instead of fully retiring
“I don't think Tim Cook is actually going to leave leave. I think he would become, yeah, like chairman.”
Siegler: OpenAI and Jony Ive's AI Device Will Likely Slip to 2027
“Like, cause their original reports, right. Where that it was going to be Probably sometime at the end of next year, the end of 26. And so, you know, this to me signals that this is more like a 2027 type thing now.”
Siegler: Nvidia likely to participate in OpenAI's new round instead of $100B deal
“Actually with open AI doing their new fundraise, it's more likely that NVIDIA is just going to be a part of that fundraise.”
Siegler: Apple will not show glasses, foldables, or AirPods at WWDC
“They're not going to show off the new glasses. They're not going to show off the fold. The AirPods like are maybe the closest, you know, thing that we have to an AI device. It's likely ready, more ready to roll. I just be shocked if they do that.”
Siegler: SpaceX Will Go Public Within Days
“That a lot could change in between now and the time that they would go out, but SpaceX is going to go public, you know, this week, the end of this week or early next. And so or maybe the 11th, you know, at the latest or whatnot.”
Siegler: Meta will announce its superintelligence model 'Avocado' within weeks
“We're probably a few weeks away, maybe less from whatever they're going to, you know, announce in terms of coming out of their new AGS super intelligence efforts, their avocado model.”
Siegler: xAI and SpaceX merger sounds likely and may be announced this week
“If they really do merge with SpaceX, which it does sound like now, is gonna happen, and may even be announced this week, which is insane how fast that that came together, if it comes together in that way.”
Big Tech cannot cut AI CapEx due to catastrophic FOMO risk
“I think that it won't be so easy also for, as I noted, for all these companies to pull back spend because they've already committed to buying X number of H. 200 chips, and then soon enough, we'll get the next iteration, you know, announced down the road, and s…”