The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Alex Kantrowitz (38)M.G. Siegler (14)Ranjan Roy (6)Mustafa Suleyman (5)Aaron Levie (5)Yann LeCun (3)Tom Eggemeier (3)Stephen Morris (3)Peter Diamandis (3)Noland Arbaugh (3)Matthew Prince (3)Geoffrey Hinton (3)
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Next up (2)
1747 days left 2031-06-26
Levie: Governments will evaluate and green-light AI model releases within 3-5 years
“I think practically in the next three to five years, we probably have to end up in an environment where models do get evaluated by the government. There is a sort of collaborative approach between the government and research and the labs. You know, the governm…”
3450 days left 2036-02-23
Levie: Total AI market cap will reach tens of trillions of dollars
“We're talking about a category where, you know, it'll be measured in the tens of trillions of dollars. The market caps that will be generated by AI. Some of that will go to the chip providers. Some of that will go to the supply chain of the chip providers. Som…”
Closed calls (1) the full record →
Levie: AI labs will not accept liability for enterprise use cases
“The labs are not going to, you know, take on the liability for every single use case that you do. They're gonna have very narrow liability that they have around copyright and IP protection and stuff like that, but they're not gonna, you know, they're not gonna…”