The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Alex Kantrowitz (38)M.G. Siegler (14)Ranjan Roy (6)Mustafa Suleyman (5)Aaron Levie (5)Yann LeCun (3)Tom Eggemeier (3)Stephen Morris (3)Peter Diamandis (3)Noland Arbaugh (3)Matthew Prince (3)Geoffrey Hinton (3)
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The record (135) every resolved claim →
Prince: Google Paying Publishers for AI Scraping Is Inevitable
“I don't know if they'll pay up before the deadline, but I think it's inevitable that they'll pay up. Because again, I think that they need the content and they understand fundamentally that journalists and content creators and academics deserve to eat.”
Brockman: Future voice AI will process input and output simultaneously
“The obvious thing that you want to accomplish is a model An AI that works much more like you and I do, right? That's able to process input at the same time it's processing output. And all of that is, of course, something that many people in this field are tryi…”
Kantrowitz: AI platforms will inevitably use personal interaction data for targeted ads
“So will AIs build an amazing sort of profile of you based off of all the personal data and then use that for ads? Most certainly.”
Plouffe: Expect halted data centers and statewide moratoriums in 3-5 years
“I'd imagine over the next three to five years, you'll see some stopped and some of those might be statewide moratoriums.”
Amon: AI inference will eventually surpass training in data centers
“Eventually inference is going to take over training because Just think about that for a second. If you're a company spending billions of dollars building a data center for training, you expect to get a return on that investment. So when you start putting AI in…”
Mensch: Consumer AI will build an ad business, unlike Mistral's focus
“Well, yes, I think on consumer side, on the consumer side, because AI is starting to be well, it's becoming the way you access information. You basically have an ads business to be built, and that's pretty clearly going to be built. It's not the focus of our c…”
Kantrowitz: Humans will violently attack and destroy humanoid robots
“Well, I think we will definitely have a war among people and humanoid robots. It's without a doubt. Even if the humanoid robots don't assemble into the army, people will knock these things out and they're already burning Waymos. People don't like robots. They …”
Ramji: AI Agents Will Soon Execute Tasks Running for Days or Weeks
“So whether it's minutes, hours, I think there'll be some tasks that will run for days or weeks.
Really?
Yeah.
So we're just gonna, we'll come to that kind of use case soon, and it'll be super interesting, because, you know, all these models are getting large, …”
Prince: AI will generate hyper-customized podcasts in personalized voices
“We're going to want to have hyper-customized podcasts that are in exactly the voice that we find the most reassuring and AIs are going to create that for us.”
Petersen: Warehouse robots most likely will not be humanoid
“Humanoid actually doesn't solve a lot of problems because you don't get more density out of your warehouse. You want real estate density. You want to be able to stack the goods all the way to the ceiling, jam them in. So it's more, the form factor is not going…”
Kantrowitz: Humanoid robots will be programmed not to fight back
“I mean, they're not going to be programmed to fight back. Like all this alignment work is going to be done for them not to fight back.”
Kurian: Cloud adoption will definitely surpass 50% of IT workloads
“We definitely see it getting north of 50%.”
Suleyman: GPT-4 and GPT-4o Efficiency Will Improve 100x
“So I expect that to happen for GPT-IV, GPT-IV-O and all of the other models down the road.”
Wang: AI will eventually formulate hypotheses, run tests, and conduct research autonomously
“Eventually It'll be able to start making its own hypotheses, running those tests on its own, and sort of ultimately making its own sort of discoveries or realizations or sort of conduct its own research.”
Bosworth: Wrist neural interfaces will eventually work without physical gestures
“Over time, we think we can do that without having any gestures at all. Just having the intention, expressing the intention down your control system.”
Siegler: iPhone Pro will retain a better camera system than foldable iPhone
“The pro will continue to have the best camera system. Largely, it seems like simply because of laws of physics, right? And the way that the foldable is gonna be more space constrained you know, by the, by its nature.”
Beck: New chip generations demand 10x more power every ten months
“We know from all the chief manufacturers or designers, all the famous names that we're familiar with. Well, they're coming with new generations. Every 10 months, roughly now, and every 10 months the power is multiplied by 10, and that's becoming six months, an…”
Beck: Next-gen data centers will use no more water than a car wash
“The way we share it with politicians in our areas, for instance, to say, well, the new data center are not going to use more water than a car wash.”
Diamandis: Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire
“Elon will be the first trillionaire out there.”
Future AI models will fix code vulnerabilities across multiple files simultaneously
“And as you have more powerful models, you can do that in across multiple files, basically solving the issue, not just in one place, but in multiple places.”
Costolo: SpaceX could be worth over $2T on day one
“When SpaceX goes public, and I think it'll actually, could you could, it could end up being worth over two trillion dollars on day one, whether that's a fake price or not.”
SpaceX will hold its initial public offering before OpenAI and Anthropic
“SpaceX will be the one that IPO is first out of this. I think we could both agree there.”
Anthropic will likely raise $50 billion at a $900 billion valuation
“I will note Anthropic is likely gonna raise at least one more round. It looks like they're gonna raise fifty billion dollars at a nine hundred billion free money valuation.”
Alex Kantrowitz predicts Elon Musk will fail to oust OpenAI leaders
“Now, I know Musk is trying to get Musk and Sam Altman, sorry, he's trying to get Sam Altman and Greg Brockman removed from the top of opening. I don't think that's going to happen.”
Levie: AI labs will not accept liability for enterprise use cases
“The labs are not going to, you know, take on the liability for every single use case that you do. They're gonna have very narrow liability that they have around copyright and IP protection and stuff like that, but they're not gonna, you know, they're not gonna…”
Siegler: Apple's next CEO will be John Ternus or Craig Federighi
“It has to be sort of between those two, between Ternus and Federighi. But everyone, you know, all the reporting points to Ternus. And so you have to believe that that's the thing.”
Albergati: Meta's Future AI Models Will Be Closed or Backend-Only
“I think at this point, the new models are either going to just be part of their products, like almost backend technology, or they'll be, you know, they'll be closed models, just like open AI.”
Kantrowitz: Meta's Open Source AI Strategy Is Definitely Done
“I think they're not going to, their open source strategy is definitely done.”
Roy predicts Robinhood will introduce weather futures contracts for retail trading
“Like, I think there are certain things like weather futures, which I think Robinhood is going to introduce.”
Siegler: Tim Cook will become Apple chairman instead of fully retiring
“I don't think Tim Cook is actually going to leave leave. I think he would become, yeah, like chairman.”
Roy: OpenAI Must Launch Ads Ahead of Any IPO
“They're just laying this groundwork and infrastructure for just lots of ads, and I actually think they're gonna have to release this ahead of any kind of IPO because, you know, online advertising, especially whatever that next wave of AI platform advertising i…”
Krieger: AI agents will soon integrate directly into Slack and Teams
“These entities, these agents are going to start showing up in all places where you do work, whether that's your Slack or your Teams, for example.”
Roy: Proposed $14B TikTok US buyout will not go through
“I don't think it's going to happen. Fourteen billion versus forty billion. And we don't actually have confirmation from Xi Jinping or from any one on the Chinese side.”
Ramaswamy: Consumers will chat directly with websites to execute purchases
“I think you're going to see experiences where you can again chat with a website and be able to drive purchases off of it.”
Morris: OpenAI will not declare GPT-5 as AGI
“I hate to make bold predictions, especially in tech, because you can often be spectacularly wrong, but I do not think they're going to say GPT-V is anything approaching AGI, however you choose to define it.”
Morris: Google Will Lose Exclusive Safari Search Deal from Antitrust Remedies
“They're going to have to share more data with rivals. They're going to lose the right to be Apple's exclusive search engine provider on Safari across its devices.”
Teller: Signers of AI pause letter will keep working on AI regardless
“Lots of people who signed that letter, and lots of other people in the world are going to keep working on it, no matter what letter they're signed.”
Dwarkesh: Hyperscaler ASICs will come online from all major providers
“And so that just sets up a huge incentive for all these hyperscalers to build their own ASICs, their own accelerators that replace the Nvidia ones. Which I think will come online over the next few years from all of them.”
Tytunovich: AI agent pricing will commoditize to free or modest tiers
“There's a hundred percent chance, and OpenAI already said it, and the same is going to go with Google Gemini and Chrome, their browser, and many others. It's going to be commoditized in terms of pricing. It's going to be either free or costing a modest price, …”
Siegler: OpenAI and Jony Ive's AI Device Will Likely Slip to 2027
“Like, cause their original reports, right. Where that it was going to be Probably sometime at the end of next year, the end of 26. And so, you know, this to me signals that this is more like a 2027 type thing now.”
Scaringe: Rivian has sufficient capital to reach positive free cash flow
“That's not only enough capital to launch R two and normal, but it's enough capital to launch our second R two plant in Georgia and take us through positive free cashflow.”
Enjeti predicts McCarthy will cave to establishment and pass Ukraine aid
“Kevin McCarthy has said that he won't pass any more aid to Ukraine. In my opinion, he will absolutely fall to the blob and will 100% do that.”
Kosloff predicts a U.S. TikTok ban or forced spinout is inevitable
“For me, the question isn't like, Is there gonna be some form of TikTok spin out disinvestiture ban? It's gonna happen at some point.”
AI datacenters will undergo a massive shift to liquid cooling by 2027
“Well, I think one of the biggest changes that's happening right now from a data center perspective, and you're seeing this with the latest NVIDIA GPUs, and I think you're going to see this in a more profound way over the next two years is the shift from air-co…”
Wood: Most enterprises will fine-tune existing models rather than build foundation models
“There isn't one model to kind of rule them all. Each different model has, you know, different sweet spots, and it's my expectation that most customers will invest in not building the foundation models, but will invest in fine tuning and improving those individ…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Will Cut Prices to Leverage Infrastructure Scale Against Anthropic
“I think they will. I mean, I think that there's, if you think about it strategically, right? Anthropic has been winning. It's also, it's like part of this is about lifetime value, right? Anthropic has been winning over a lot of these enterprise customers with …”
Brynjolfsson: Next Tech Wave Will Disproportionately Hit Lower-Skill Jobs
“Our analysis that we did in a follow-up paper with Daniel Rock of Wharton suggests that as with the previous wave, the next wave of technology also will disproportionately affect some of the lower and middle skill jobs compared to the higher skill jobs”
GPT-5 will have noticeably improved reasoning capabilities from step-by-step training
“I think it'll definitely be better at reasoning, which is trivial to say, because the training methods that we've seen them talk about, like you, I'm sure you heard the talk about Q star and what it seems to be is training the model to rewarding it on getting …”
GPT-5 will enable autonomous agents to execute UI tasks for hours
“Then we're gonna see much more multimodal data, and I think that'll look a lot like the equivalent of supervised fine-tuning, but for a bunch of people recording their screen and doing workflows with their screen, navigating UIs. So I think you'll have agents …”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Models Are Coming to Google Cloud Platform Soon
“And I anticipate, and you know, given my conversations that I've had with Thomas Curry and the head of Google cloud platform, that it will come to Google fairly soon as well. He wants it there.”
Baratz predicts quantum computing will demonstrate AI energy efficiency by 2027
“I think we will start to see this benefit emerge this year or early next year.”
Swisher says Apple needs AI partners because it doesn't steal data
“Why they have to partner with someone. They don't collect information the way the others do. They're not information thieves the way the others are.”
Lanzone: All major search engines will route queries between AI and links
“This is clearly whether it's Bing,
Or ChatGPT standalone or perplexity standalone with hitting all the databases they're hitting or now Apple and Google and how they're going to do it. They're all going to be doing that the same way. And so for some queries, i…”
Srinivas: OpenAI will stay ahead of competitors with GPT-4.5 or GPT-5
“I'm sure there's a GPT 4.5 or five that will stay ahead. So it really is going to be a cat and mouse game there where Anthropics playing catch up and OpenAI is ahead through multimodal capabilities, reasoning capabilities, and things, things like that.”
Siegler: Nvidia likely to participate in OpenAI's new round instead of $100B deal
“Actually with open AI doing their new fundraise, it's more likely that NVIDIA is just going to be a part of that fundraise.”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook will likely step down as Apple CEO in 2026
“This is the last year, I think, for Tim Cook. Just, you know, not based off of any, anything more than reading the reports, but I think he's done.”
Roy: OpenAI will hit 1B users in 2026 but lose clear leadership
“I think a billion users. I don't think I think they're not the leader. I think Gemini's Google definitely starts to catch up. I think like everyone is biting off at different parts of the open AI. Empire, I guess if we call it that, but I don't think there's a…”
Albergotti: SPACs will see a resurgence in 2026 in quantum and minerals
“Well, I think one that's going to be fun is, like, that we're going to see more SPACs next year. I think, yeah, I think we had Rachel Jones, my colleague, had a good story on how, you know, some of these, like, critical minerals companies are doing SPACs, and …”
Kantrowitz: Apple targets smart glasses launch by end of 2026
“Apple is going to release its smart glasses targeted at the end of next year.”
Weinberg: OpenAI Will Need to Raise Capital Again by 2026
“My back of the envelope would say 20, 26 at the latest”
Gelsinger: Intel, AMD, and Nvidia will be AI's three big merchant providers
“There's going to be those that build their own, you know, and that's what you see Amazon, Microsoft, Google are doing. They're going to say, hey, I'm going to own this and do this myself. And then there's going to be the general providers in the marketplace, a…”
Kantrowitz predicts OpenAI will lose its AI market leadership position
“My first prediction is that OpenAI, which is the leader in the field today, is going to lose the throne. That's right. OpenAI will lose the throne. It will still factor in, but it's not going to be the leader in the field that it is today.”
Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 years
“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”
Next-Generation Google and Samsung Smart Glasses Will Appear By Summer 2026
“We've done some great partnerships with Warby Parker and Gentle Monster and Samsung to build these next generation glasses. And you should start seeing that you know, maybe by the summer.”
Kantrowitz: The Pentagon's supply chain ban on Anthropic will never take effect
“I will give my hot take here, which is that This supply chain risk threat is never never manifests. Just never takes that takes effect.”
Kantrowitz: Google Cloud Will Sell OpenAI Models Within Months
“I think Google Cloud is going to start selling open AI models within the next couple of months based off of, you know, just kind of a hunch, right? So they're going to be the infrastructure layer that enables all three big models.”
Petersen: U.S. trade tariffs will decrease American manufacturing
“What we've seen over the last few weeks is it's gonna decrease American manufacturing.”
Siegler: Apple will not show glasses, foldables, or AirPods at WWDC
“They're not going to show off the new glasses. They're not going to show off the fold. The AirPods like are maybe the closest, you know, thing that we have to an AI device. It's likely ready, more ready to roll. I just be shocked if they do that.”
Hoffman: Bankers will likely raise $80 billion for SpaceX's upcoming IPO
“That giant sucking sound you're gonna hear in the markets, you know, this May and June is, is, Bankers running around asking for eighty billion dollars, which, by the way, I think they'll get.”
Siegler: SpaceX Will Go Public Within Days
“That a lot could change in between now and the time that they would go out, but SpaceX is going to go public, you know, this week, the end of this week or early next. And so or maybe the 11th, you know, at the latest or whatnot.”
Sorkin: The SPAC boom will lead to tighter regulations and better practices
“I think that this sort of SPAC phenomenon we're seeing is probably going to be long-term actually a good thing for SPACs insofar as they're going to create more regulations and other policies and better practices around these things so that they're not effecti…”
Wood: Polkadot targets beyond thousands of transactions per second by 2026
“We're really looking to push beyond this, like even thousands of transactions per second. That's like a bit of a sort of a goal right now and looking in the next three or four years to be orders of magnitude greater.”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT will reach one billion users by April 2026
“ChatGPT hits a billion users, and we know it's at eight hundred million now. I expect that it will hit a billion by April next year at the latest, and I think that's a real moment, I think, for AI and OpenAI in general.”
Patel: Meta's next Llama model will match DeepSeek-V3's cost efficiency
“And Meta's Meta is going to release their new llama soon enough. Right. And that one is going to be, you know, a similar level of cost decrease probably similar areas, deep seek V three.”
Parker: Semiconductor stocks will outperform when the market recovers
“I guess what I'm convinced of, because of the fact that 19, the last 20 times when the market did recover tech work, because semis have sold off so much, and because they ultimately are growing faster relative to the economy than they did previously, that semi…”
Petersen: Closing De Minimis Exemption Will Crash Air Freight Prices
“It's going to crash the price of air freight would be my prediction.”
Petersen predicts short-term goods recession driven by higher consumer prices
“Short term is going to be a lot, a goods recession for sure. I mean, there'll be less goods sold because prices will be higher.”
Petersen: 70% chance trade deals get negotiated, China tariffs probably stick
“I give it like a 70% confidence level that they negotiate some deals. I think the China tariffs probably stick.”
Petersen: Cabinet secretary indicated administration will negotiate deals on tariffs
“I believe there will be deals cut. I don't know if in time to pause the tariffs altogether, but and I believe that because a cabinet secretary told me that there would be a pause, a negotiation, I should say, not a pause, but he said two weeks ago that this wa…”
Petersen: Asian e-commerce giants will absorb duties if de minimis ends
“My suspicion from having analyzed a few of these and working with them is that the companies will keep, keep going and just have to pay the duties.”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT On Track for One Billion Users by Late March
“Definitely on track for a billion by mid, mid to late March.”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook will announce departure on Apple Q1 earnings call
“Tim Cook announces on first quarter conference call that he's leaving the company at the end of the year.”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook could step down as Apple CEO in early 2026
“But between that departure and this mega byline story in the FT I could see Tim Cook realistically leaving in Q one in 20, 26. I think that's a real thing.”
Dario Amodei's prediction that AI will write all code is unrealistic
“I think he said actually like in March, within a year, all of code will be written by AI or basically all of code. I mean, that's probably not gonna come true.”
Eggemeier: Bot-to-bot customer support interactions will arrive within 12 months
“Alexa talking to an AI agent that's, you know, powered by Zendesk, I really think that's gonna come over the next six or 12 months, and we're gonna have some really, really cool use cases where, The consumer is there using their own bot to interact with a comp…”
Siegler: Meta will announce its superintelligence model 'Avocado' within weeks
“We're probably a few weeks away, maybe less from whatever they're going to, you know, announce in terms of coming out of their new AGS super intelligence efforts, their avocado model.”
AI Models Will Test and Verify Their Own Work Within Six Months
“Like I think over the next three or six months, I think we're going to see machine learning models being able to test and verify their work.”
Siegler: xAI and SpaceX merger sounds likely and may be announced this week
“If they really do merge with SpaceX, which it does sound like now, is gonna happen, and may even be announced this week, which is insane how fast that that came together, if it comes together in that way.”
Big Tech cannot cut AI CapEx due to catastrophic FOMO risk
“I think that it won't be so easy also for, as I noted, for all these companies to pull back spend because they've already committed to buying X number of H. 200 chips, and then soon enough, we'll get the next iteration, you know, announced down the road, and s…”
Petersen: Blanket Tariff Lawsuit Will Reach Supreme Court in ~6 Months
“That's the one that they lost the court case, and it's gonna get, gonna work its way to the Supreme Court over the next six months or so, or some timeline.”
Broderick predicts Bluesky will reach 100 million users by early 2026
“Blue Sky
Is now north of twenty-five million users, and it's well on its way to, let's, let, let's say that by this time next year, maybe even sooner, Blue Sky is gonna be around a 100,000, Blue Sky will be around a hundred million users, which I looked up th…”
Kantrowitz: Temu and Shein will face US regulatory action or ban
“I think that Timu and Sheehan are going to face some action, whether it is those higher taxes, and I would not be, or a ban, and I would not be surprised by a ban.”
Doshi: Search engine traffic will drop over 25% before 2026
“I mean, I think there's a very high probability it is greater than that number in a shorter span of time.”
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