Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wood: Claude 3.5 Haiku Outperforms All Other Models on the Planet
“Claude III.V Haiku outperforms all other models on the planet.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AWS's Wood: Foundation AI models will diversify rather than become commodities
“My guess is that these models will not, you know, kind of commodify. My guess is that they will diversify increasingly over time, and that the idea that there's, these models will become commodities Defined as, you know, you can hot swap them and that their ec…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wood: AWS customers saw their proprietary IP output back by ChatGPT
“We've seen actual customers see their own IP come back to them from the model, and that is terrifying to enterprise customers, where the IP is the crown jewels”
Opinion
Wood argues public web data is fair game for AI model training
“Who's to say what this data can be used for when it's publicly available. You know, you chose to make it publicly available. If you want to put some permissions around it, or you want to take it private, Yeah, that's totally up to you. You still own the data. …”
Insight
Matt Wood: Regulated industries are adopting GenAI faster due to existing data governance
“There is a group which is moving slightly faster than the average, which is somewhat Counterintuitive. And that group is actually the regulated industries. And so it's folks like in financial services and insurance and healthcare and life sciences and manufact…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AWS's Wood: AI agents will be the apps of the generative AI era
“I think agents have a good chance of being the apps for the generative AI world and the generative AI era. And that as we add more of those and we find ways to orchestrate multiple agents together, and there's already customers that are building multi-agent sy…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wood: Amazon Q Code Acceptance Rate Is 35% to 50%
“We've seen some customers get, you know, in terms of just the amount of code that is automatically generated that they accept. It's usually between 35 and 50%. It's higher on Q than any other comparable service”
Opinion
Wood: Smaller specialized models beat frontier models on deep enterprise tasks
“I am absolutely positive that the inverse is also true. That you can find older, smaller, specialized models, ah, that, ah, will, ah, will offer much better, higher quality, lower hallucination results on specific tasks at the depth that most organizations nee…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AWS's Wood predicts foundation AI models will consolidate to 12-24 major providers
“I think that there's not going to be hundreds of world model providers. I think that there's likely to be maybe a dozen, two dozen, something of that order of magnitude. I think that, you know, Anthropic will be one, Meta will be one, Amazon will be one, there…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wood: There will not be a single AI model to rule them all
“We think that there's not going to be a single model to rule them all.”
Disclosure
Wood: Amazon's AI goal is pragmatic utility, not Artificial General Intelligence
“Others are talking about, well, our stated goal is that we want an artificially generally intelligent system. That is not our stated goal. Our stated goal is that we want to just be very pragmatic, meet customers where they're at today, and then provide capabi…”
Assertion Contradicted
Wood: AWS Is the Only Cloud for Privately Customizing AI Models
“Today we're the only place where you can take your own data, and we have customers With exabytes of data. You'd be surprised how many customers have exabytes of data on AWS, and they can take that data that they've invested in, and they can use it with these m…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wood: AWS's AI business could surpass all other AWS revenue within years
“It seems very low to me, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if just the, ah, AI part of our cloud computing business was larger than the rest of AWS combined in a couple years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wood: Training Net-New AI Models Will Not Be Common
“Yeah, I think training net new models, ah, is not going to be very common. It's, ah, it's very complicated. It is expensive, to your point. You need a lot of compute capacity, a lot of data, a lot of expertise. Some folks that have differentiation in one of th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wood: Gen AI value lies in complex task automation, not chat
“Well, we have the other ones that I mentioned earlier, like the generative pieces, the search pieces, but the collaborative problem solving pieces, the automation pieces, completing complex tasks.
That I think is where the majority of the value is going to be.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wood admits Amazon employees already use AI to write six-page memos
“That ship has sailed, I can tell you.”
Insight
Wood: Generative AI Functions as a Discovery Exhibiting Emergent Reasoning
“It's much more like a discovery than it is an invention. Ah, we discovered that if you build these very sophisticated mathematical models, that there is emergent behavior within them that resembles reasoning, that resembles intelligence.”
Opinion
AWS's Wood: Generative AI has not reached its hockey-stick inflection yet
“My guess is that we're, it's probably more likely that we're at the bottom left hand corner. I don't think we've hit the kind of hockey stick inflection point yet. Of what this, ah, what this technology is capable of. It's still very, very, very early.”
Opinion
AWS's Matt Wood: Web-trained AI models have a six-month shelf life
“Today it looks like models have a shelf life of probably about six months if you're training on kind of open, open web data”
Opinion
Wood: Chatbots give an appearance of intelligence but fail at complex tasks
“And they give the appearance of intelligence, but they actually are not very good today at completing complex tasks.”
Insight
Wood: Vast Majority of AI Compute Cost Is Inference, Not Training
“And whilst A lot of focus is put on training. If you think about it, you may train a model once a month, once a week, let's say, but you're going to be running predictions and inference and chatting with that model 100,010 of thousands of times a day. And so i…”
Opinion
AWS's Wood: Generative AI Is Too Early to Limit Foundation Model Creation
“Well, on the 81st model, I think you do need an 81st model right now. Like, it would be completely arbitrary to decide right now, at this point in time, that we need to limit the model or that we've got enough. There is so much opportunity. It is so early.”
Opinion
Wood: Jeff Bezos views generative AI as biggest shift since web browsers
“I think he feels that it is, I wouldn't want to speak on his behalf, of course, but, you know, I think he feels the same. Like, this is the single largest transformational step in how we interact with data and information and each other, you know, since the ve…”
Assertion Supported
Wood: AWS AI and Machine Learning Business Exceeds Multibillion-Dollar ARR
“Bedrock, which is the service that we make available to customers to build generative AI applications. That's one of our fastest growing services ever. And all up, AI machine learning at AWS is already a multi-billion dollar business. In terms of ARR.”
