Margins writer Ranjan Roy discusses OpenAI's transition toward advertising and Meta-like monetization strategies.
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Roy: Tesla and SpaceX will inevitably have to merge
“Giving that little nugget to the world, starting to seed that idea, and I think it's almost, it has to happen, because these two companies, again, Tesla has a car business, SpaceX kind of has a space business, still has an internet satellite business, but they…”
Opinion
Roy: SpaceX's S-1 filing positions it as an AI company, not space
“But, so they have already filed their S-one, and have positioned themselves squarely in the AI camp. Like, this is not a space company anymore. This is an AI company.”
Insight
Roy: Late-Stage AI Valuations Are Juiced to Anchor Retail IPO Pricing
“You have every incentive in the world to juice the valuation because that means that it gets anchored there and then you go out at a higher value. Like, then you realize that at the expense of the retail market.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI compute demand growth will be linear rather than exponential
“I don't think it's necessarily exponential in the way everyone is looking at it right now. And the way these deals are being done, and the way people are chasing it, and again, when it benefits both parties involved, I do think that It can be more of a linear …”
Opinion
Roy: Apple Intelligence launch ads were "flat-out lies" about product capabilities
“Those ads were so misleading, just flat out lies about the capabilities that were existing at the time. Took, I mean, Apple, very few companies have ever done any, like, have done something that egregious.”
Opinion
Roy: OpenAI is merely chasing and following Anthropic's enterprise strategy
“They are chasing Anthropic strategically. They're going after Enterprise, again, like Mythos gets released, and then Five Four Cyber gets released right after. It's like everything they're doing is right after Anthropic and following them”