Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krieger: Top token users do not correlate with top performers
“We found that there's not a lot of correlation between
[10288] Mike Krieger: Like the person who's using the most tokens and like the person that I like, it's an interesting thought. I just made you at your companies like write down your 10 most productive peo…”
What-if
Krieger: Instagram could have reached sale with 4 to 6 people using AI
“I think we could have gotten there with like four to six, you know?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krieger: Anthropic found little correlation between employee token usage and actual productivity.
“We found that there's not a lot of correlation between
Like the person who's using the most tokens and like the person that I like, it's an interesting thought.
I just made you at your companies like write down your 10 most productive people that you think a…”
What-if
Krieger: AI would have allowed Instagram to scale with just 4-6 employees.
“I think we could have gotten there with like four to six, you know?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krieger: Anthropic dynamic workflows autonomously converted hundreds of thousands of lines of code
“We have a feature called dynamic workflows where you can have it like also break down the task into like a lot of subtasks. And I trusted it to sort of not just do the individual action, but here's like a whole language conversion of millions of hundreds of th…”
Insight
Krieger: Anthropic Labs builds for capabilities models will gain in six months
“The two most useful thought exercises we do in labs, one is like visualize the gap between what the models can do today and how most people use it. It can be closed that gap. That's one. And the other one is imagine what the models are bad at now that they're …”
Disclosure
Krieger: Anthropic shelved prototypes deemed potentially harmful to society
“There are certainly products that we have either prototyped or conceptualized and been like this product. It sounds so hypey. I hate this. But like this product, if shipped, would be bad for the world or like would nudge people in the wrong direction. Or even …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krieger: Fable completed a full night of delegated engineering in one hour.
“I moved much more to before going to bed, making sure that I had, like, queued up for Fable, like, enough chunky work to last. I would call it the whole night and I would check in later and it got it done in an hour and it was like, I guess, hanging out for th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krieger: Fable autonomously converted hundreds of thousands of Python lines to TypeScript.
“And I trusted it to sort of not just do the individual action, but here's like a whole language conversion of millions of hundreds of thousands of lines of code at that point. Go off and do it, go plan it, go execute it, go verify the work, double verify the w…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krieger: Early prototype of Claude's computer use feature accidentally deleted user files.
“And then also out of that first incarnation came computer use. Computer use was different, though, because when we built it was really bad. Like we tried a bunch of products with it, and this was around, you know, Sonic three five and be like, Claude, can you …”
Opinion
Krieger: Space-based data centers actually might make sense
“At first, I admittedly thought it was a crazy idea in general, but now I'm like, oh, I actually really can understand why this might make sense.”
Opinion
Krieger: Outcome-based AI pricing will be extremely difficult for broad knowledge work.
“It gets so much fuzzier on these like tasks that we actually ask Claude these days.
Like I had a strategy document.
I use Claude to critique my strategy document.
Like,
What was the outcome?
It's like, well, I don't know.
It's like, tell me how the strat…”
What-if
Krieger: Instagram's original Android app could be built in a week with AI
“Android we built. In about a month for Instagram, we could have done it probably in a week with the models”
Insight
Krieger: AI needs 75% to 80% human quality to actually accelerate work
“If you get to, like, 50% as good as you would have done yourself, I don't think that's good enough, and it won't speed you up. And in fact, it's like, I don't know, I could have just done this myself, and now, now, then at least I would have known what it's do…”
Assertion Supported
Krieger: Claude Sonnet 4.5 beats Opus across categories at one-fifth the cost
“So, 4.5 sine 4.5 basically outdoes Opus, our largest model in effectively every category, but does so while running faster and at a fifth the cost. So if you think about where we were in May at, you know, code with Claude, we were announcing, announcing Opus f…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krieger: In the long run, AI products will probably replace more work
“In the long run, like overall, these products like might not, or probably will be doing more sort of automation or even replacement of work.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krieger: AI era will foster more small companies over monolithic firms
“I still think there's like a tremendous amount of economic opportunity throughout. It just might be, you know, more smaller companies rather than fewer, bigger monolithic companies.”
Assertion Supported
Krieger: Anthropic trained native memory directly into Claude rather than external wrappers
“Rather than treat it as a sort of substitute for how the model might otherwise access information or sort of a system built on top of the model, we actually have trained it deeply into the model. And so the model knows about the concept of memory, which I know…”
Opinion
Krieger: Meta's Search Bar Chatbots Were Not Particularly Transformative
“Initial wave of, well, you know, we've got some chat bot type stuff in the search bars was like not particularly transformative.”
Insight
Krieger: Massive Platforms Can Only Introduce One New Behavior Per Generation
“Once you get a service as widespread as Instagram or as widespread as Facebook or WhatsApp, it's hard to introduce a new behavior there. You know, we did it with stories. I think they've since done it with reels but it's almost like one, you get one per genera…”
Disclosure
Krieger: Anthropic is embedding engineers inside enterprise clients with Deloitte
“We're doing much more of a model now where either with our own engineers embedded in enterprises in partnership with Deloitte, which we just announced this week, can we actually like take our technology, meet companies where they like what their highest needs …”
Insight
Krieger: First-week reactions to new AI models should be ignored
“I've learned to not really trust day of or even week of model reactions. You don't really know until you've put it through its paces. And so like, I almost just completely block out the noise in the first couple of days of any new model release, because I don'…”
Disclosure
Krieger: Anthropic is in discussions with SpaceX
“We're, you know, we're talking to SpaceX about spacey things.”
Opinion
Krieger: Outcome-based pricing is very hard for general LLM work
“It gets so much fuzzier on these like tasks that we actually ask Claude these days. Like I had a strategy document. I use Claude to critique my strategy document like. What was the outcome? It's like, well, I don't know. It's like, tell me how the strategy goe…”