Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Quantum computers will have enough qubits to break standard encryption around 2040

Bill Vass · Booz Allen CTO: AI in Government, Autonomous Driving, Quantum's Promise · Sep 10, 2025 · at 55:50

Bill Vass, CTO of Booz Allen Hamilton, argues why public and private sector organizations need to deploy post-quantum cryptography immediately.

0:00 / 0:06exact quote · 6.4s

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“In around 2040, we think there'll be enough qubits to start to break encryption, and secrets last longer than that.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Quantum computers will have enough qubits to start breaking standard encryption by around 2040.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

The claim forecasts that quantum computers will possess sufficient qubits to break standard encryption by around 2040, with a stated resolution horizon of December 31, 2040. As of the evaluation date of September 2, 2026, quantum computing hardware remains in intermediate development phases (e.g., logical qubit systems under 100 logical qubits, with roadmaps targeting thousands of logical qubits in the 2030s), and standard classical cryptography (such as RSA-2048 or ECC-256) has not been broken by a quantum computer. Because the target horizon of 2040 has not been reached, the claim cannot yet be resolved.

Global Risk Institute's 2026 Quantum Threat Timeline Report estimated a 51% to 70% probability of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer emerging within 15 years (by ~2041).
Hardware roadmaps as of 2026 (including IBM, Quantinuum, and Google Quantum AI) project scaling toward fault-tolerant systems and thousands of logical qubits across the 2030s.
As of September 2, 2026, no quantum computer has demonstrated or been confirmed to break RSA-2048 or ECC-256.

Checked against

[1] globalriskinstitute.org [2] postquantum.com [3] globalriskinstitute.org [4] wikipedia.org [5] stackexchange.com [6] postquantum.com [7] postquantum.com [8] youtube.com

qubits required to break RSA 2048 Shor algorithm logical physical qubits Global Risk Institute Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2024 OR 2025 quantum computing roadmaps IBM Google 100000 qubits 2030 2040 NIST post quantum cryptography timeline standards 2024 2025 2026

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

⏳ prediction date: 2040-12-31; checked again automatically on the next resolution wave

Mentioned

Bill Vass cryptography quantum computer

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