Kedrosky: AI infrastructure models based on labor TAM are ridiculous and speculative
Paul Kedrosky · Why The AI Bubble Will Burst: The Most Logical Case — With Paul Kedrosky · Aug 12, 2026 · at 8:24
Investor Paul Kedrosky critiques sell-side analyst models that justify trillions in AI capex using total addressable market projections for global human labor.
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“It's wrong to say, for better or worse, we're going to be putting in a trillion, therefore I need a hundred trillion out of this. That's not the way investors are looking at this, and it's, and it will lead you down the wrong path if you take that approach, because now you're forced to say, well, I'm going to have to estimate what percentage of some giant number I'm going to earn over the next five years, and that's where you get into these loony arguments from some of the sell-side analysts, where they'll say things like, well, the TAM, the total available market for human labor, is like 12 trillion dollars. If I get 20% of the TAM, like, this is ridiculous. This is just completely, you know, seat of your pants, speculative stuff. So it won't get you anywhere in terms of understanding the calculus that's driving people to provide the off balance sheet financing for these projects.”
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