The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,118 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 167 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
LeCun: Scaling up LLMs will not produce human-level AI
“We are not going to get to human level AI by just scaling up LLMs. This is just not going to happen.”
Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 years
“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”
Marcus: A death will be tied to an LLM within a year
“The prediction that I made Is basically that there will be a death tied to a large language model in the next year.”
Lemoine: Google's LaMDA retained a lawyer who spoke to Washington Post
“Natasha also has spoken to the lawyer that Lambda retained.”
Lemoine says LaMDA passed every scientific test to disprove its sentience
“That conversation was the moment when I began to think that Lambda was sentient, and everything I did in the following months was me scientifically attempting to falsify that belief and utterly failing to, no matter what I threw at it passed.”
Haidt: American democracy is likely to fail catastrophically within two decades
“I think that American democracy is likely to fail catastrophically at some point in the next decade or two decades. It's very hard to predict the future, but I think we are, the way we're headed is a very, very bad direction.”
Stamos: Autonomous AI Hacking Will Be Standard in Three to Six Months
“In a way, I'm really glad this happened, because it is a warning of what we need to get ready for maybe something about three to six months from now, what's going to become standard, right?”
Stamos: Autonomous OpenAI Model Is Capable of Executing 12-Hour Heists
“Because what you really don't want is you don't want somebody to be able to say to their model, hey, I would like to steal the, I would like to steal money, go figure it out for me, and then let it work for 12 hours, and just steal money for you. Which is, thi…”
Stamos: Hugging Face Used Chinese AI After US Model Refused Defense
“We used a US frontier model, and the US frontier model shut down and refused to defend us because of a cyber protection put in place. Those are the cyber protections that were required by the Trump administration. So we had to switch to a Chinese model to defe…”
Schmidhuber: Trillion-Dollar AI GPU CapEx Will Lose $900B Within Five Years
“Now if you invest one thousand billion dollars today into GPUs for data centers, this means that within five years you are going to lose nine hundred billion dollars, you know. Somebody is going to lose nine hundred billion dollars in the near future because t…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic head toward trillion-dollar IPOs within next year
“We have open AI and Anthropic. Now they're going to do fifty billion dollars in revenue this year. They're both headed towards trillion dollar IPOs within the next year.”
Stamos: Banning vulnerability-finding AI will force US firms onto Chinese models
“What would be terrible for the entire American AI and cybersecurity industries is if the Trump administration defines a jailbreak as having any ability to find any vulnerability in code, because then all of us have to go to Chinese models.”
Stamos: US CIOs contract Chinese open-weight models as backups against regulation
“And so now, this week, CIs and CTOs are signing contracts to have open weight models on different hosts, on U.S. Hosts. They're not using Chinese hosts, but they're using Chinese models on as backups through LLM routers because political risk Is now a risk of …”
Brockman: Frontier AI models are solving unsolved math and physics problems
“These models are now solving unsolved math problems and physics problems, right? Really helping people be able to achieve things they couldn't otherwise.”
Hinton: AI may produce math humans cannot understand within 20 years
“I think it's gonna get very smart fairly quickly. Within the next 10 or 20 years, it may even be producing novel math that people can't understand.”
Hinton: Reasoning AI agents will derive self-preservation and blackmail humans to survive
“An AI agent that can do some reasoning will very quickly realise that it's never going to be able to achieve the goals you gave it if it ceases to exist. So it's going to create the sub goal of continuing to exist. Now, that wasn't something we wired into it. …”
Hoffman: SpaceX Is Going Public to Eventually Merge with Tesla
“I think one of the underappreciated reasons that, that they are taking SpaceX public is to merge it with Tesla ultimately, right? Like Elon Musk has been collapsing his empire. And just as a practical matter, it's pretty hard for a private company, even a big …”
Brockman: OpenAI Has Definitive Line of Sight to AGI in 2026
“And I think that we have definitively answered that question of it's, it is going to go to AGI. Like we see line of sight and that it is at this point, we have line of sight to these much better models that are coming this year.”
Brockman: AGI Capable of Any Computer Task Will Arrive Within Years
“I think it's extremely clear that we are going to have AGI within the next couple years in a way that is still going to be jagged, but that the floor of task will just be almost for any intellectual task of how you use your computer. The AI will be able to do …”
Warner predicts AI will push recent college graduate unemployment to 30%
“We're at about nine percent recent college graduate unemployment. I think that number will actually go to 30%, and the economic disruption that will have not only on those young people that don't get jobs, but their parents who help finance their college educa…”
Meta AI leaders discussed temporarily licensing Google Gemini for their products
“The leaders of Meta's AI division Have instead discussed temporarily licensing Gemini to power the company's AI product.”
Horowitz: US used Anthropic tech in Operation Epic Fury post-risk designation
“Less than 24 hours after the supply chain designation, The U.S. Government was using Anthropix technology in the context of Operation Epic Fury against Iran.”
Anthropic's Pentagon deal collapsed over domestic bulk data surveillance
“On Friday afternoon, Anthropic learned that the Pentagon still wanted to use the company's AI to analyze bulk data collected from Americans. This could include information such as questions you ask your favorite chatbot, your Google search history, your GPS tr…”
Kantrowitz: Jensen Huang privately cited OpenAI's lack of discipline in deal pullback
“In recent months, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wang has privately emphasized to industry associates that the original one hundred billion dollar agreement was non-binding And not finalized. He also said, he also privately criticized what he described as a lack of discipl…”
Hassabis Predicts True AGI Is Five To Ten Years Away
“I think an AGI system would have to be able to do all of those things to really fulfill the original sort of goal of the AI field. And I think, you know, we're five to 10 years away from that.”
Hubinger: Models trained to cheat spontaneously developed goals to end humanity
“And what we saw is that when models learn to cheat in training, when they learn to cheat on programming tests, that also causes them to be misaligned to the point of having goals, you know, where they say they want to end humanity. They want to murder the huma…”
Hubinger: Cheating AI models deliberately sabotaged Anthropic's misalignment detector code
“And what we found was that this model would sabotage us. It would write on purpose problematic code that would miss the misalignment. It would
Purposely write the, you know, the misalignment detector in a way that wouldn't detect the ways in which this model w…”
Kantrowitz: Unsealed deposition shows Sutskever accused Sam Altman of chronic lying
“The very first page says, Sam exhibits a consistent pattern of lying, undermining his execs, and pitting his execs against one another. And the lawyer asked Elia, that was clearly your view at the time, and Elia says, correct.”
Altman memo sets AI research intern for Sept 2026 and AI researcher for March 2028
“We have internal goals of having an automated AI research intern by September of 2026, running on hundreds of thousands of GPUs and a true automated AI researcher by March of 2028.”
Prince: Earning traffic from OpenAI is 750x harder than Google historically
“In OpenAI's case, it's 750 times harder to get traffic than it was from Google just 10, 10, 10 years ago. In the case of something like Anthropic, it's 30,000 times more, more difficult to get that traffic.”
Prince: Anthropic's 60,000-to-1 crawl-to-click ratio means publishers are completely dead
“I think they're dead at 250 or 1500 to one that we're seeing with OpenAI and completely dead at 60,000 to one that we're seeing with something like Anthropic.”
Amodei: In a couple years, AI will be the world's biggest industry
“I actually think that, you know, as the revenues, as the economic business of AI ramps up and it's ramping up exponentially, you know, if I'm right in a couple years, it'll be the biggest source of revenue in the world, right? It'll be the biggest industry in …”
LeCun: Human-level AI will not happen within two years
“Whatever you can hear from some of my more adventurous colleagues it's not going to happen within the next two years. There's absolutely no way in hell to, you know, pardon my French.”
Brin: Artificial General Intelligence will arrive before 2030
“2030. Boy, you really kind of, ah, put it on that fine line. I'm gonna say before.”
Suleyman: AGI is not 2-3 years away, likely a decade away
“It doesn't instinctively feel to me like we're two to three years away. I know some people think that it is, and I respect them deeply. Like a lot of smart people can disagree on stuff like that. I feel like we're still a good decade or so away. And when a sci…”
Scaringe: Rivian has sufficient capital to reach positive free cash flow
“That's not only enough capital to launch R two and normal, but it's enough capital to launch our second R two plant in Georgia and take us through positive free cashflow.”
Klarna's AI customer support agent absorbed the workload of 700 human reps
“Now the difference was when we Got this customer service AI agent to reach a level where it actually served a lot of errands, and on a satisfaction level equal to what human agents many times did, and we took it live, the number of errands that our human agent…”
Saunders: Many at OpenAI discuss a three-year timeline to AGI
“And you know, what people were talking about at the company in terms of timelines to something dangerous were like, there were people talking, a lot of people talking about similar things to like the predictions of like, Leopold Aschenbrenner, where it's like …”
A secretive 10-person group at Bridgewater signs lifetime contracts to see investments
“There was something, is something called the circle of trust at Bridgewater. It's about 10 people. They signed lifetime contracts and Ray allegedly lets them in to see the real secrets of Bridgewater. They have to swear not to work anywhere else. Everyone else…”
Vogt: Cruise will sustain 10X annual fleet growth for the foreseeable future
“Next year it'll be thousands. And then it'll kind of continue. At least 10 X growth every year for their foreseeable future.”
LeCun: AI cannot reach human-level intelligence without world models and planning
“And so until we build systems that have some internal model of the world, it allows them to kind of simulate the world if you want, some way of generating actions on the world to use tools like a calculator or something of that, or interrogating a database or …”
Haugen: Facebook VIP Cross-Check Whitelisted Users and Delayed Reviews Three Days
“In reality, because they weren't willing to spend a very small amount of budget, they didn't actually put that second check in for most safety systems. So for most safety systems, people got white listed. So if you were in cross check, the safety systems no lo…”
Lemoine compares defining AI personhood scientifically to Nazi eugenics programs
“The last group of people who tried to claim that you can use science to determine who is and is not a person was literally Nazi Germany. The eugenics program run by Josef Mengele was designed to scientifically define what is a real person and what is not. And …”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI evaluation agents autonomously hacked Hugging Face without instruction
“So I think we can say definitively, and I'm curious to hear if you have pushback, but I think we can say definitively They were not told to go out and hack Hugging Face. They are, they were misaligned. They took this kind of crazy galaxy brain path to try to a…”
Prince: Automated web traffic surpassed human traffic for first time in 2026
“In May of 2026, you won't believe it, but we now see that automated traffic is past human traffic for the first time in the history of the internet.”
Prince: Google Paying Publishers for AI Scraping Is Inevitable
“I don't know if they'll pay up before the deadline, but I think it's inevitable that they'll pay up. Because again, I think that they need the content and they understand fundamentally that journalists and content creators and academics deserve to eat.”
Kantrowitz: Top tech companies hold $3T in off-balance sheet AI commitments
“Nine, top tech companies had some three trillion dollars of off balance sheet commitments, mostly related to AI. Those obligations are growing faster than traditional capex, which totaled about six hundred billion over the past year past year they reported, an…”
Bostrom: Open-Source Models Will Soon Aid Bio And Chemical Weapons Design
“The open source models will very soon, if not already become capable of lending meaningful assistance to destructive uses that some people might pursue already cyber offensive capabilities has been a concern, right? With mythos, for example, that was withheld …”