Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from More or Less: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

1,018 opinions943 assertions725 predictions552 insights230 disclosures19 what-ifs

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Opinion
Sam Lessin: Elon Musk and Sam Altman deliberately lie to motivate followers
“I think that Elon and Sam Altman lie, right? I think they say things they know to not be true, to Get people to do things. Right. And like, go on like with them. I just believe that from what I've seen, like, I think they're both way too smart to believe what …”
Sam Lessin Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 26:27 #113 GPT-5 Disappoints: The End of the AI Gold Rush? · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Deel CEO allegedly recruited Rippling employee as paid spy
“Keith O'Brien, who was the man allegedly spying for deal while working at Rip Lane had to Put out an affidavit today, and he basically, like, came forward and just was like, all right, here's the truth. Alex, how do you pronounce his name? Boise, Boise, the CE…”
Brit Morin Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 46:53 Can Tesla Survive? | More or Less #93 · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: Open-source AI models will die due to massive training costs
“It is costing an order of magnitude more to train, and that's why I don't think open source models will be viable because of the training costs.”
Vinod Khosla Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 8:48 #51: Vinod Khosla on What to Build in AI · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Wolfe: Europe Is Screwed by Demographics and Failure to Assimilate
“I think that Europe is fucked, and there are bright lights of amazing entrepreneurs that are doing the very thing that Europe has historically not done, which is risk taking. The floor for Europe is higher than the US, so people do not fall through that, but t…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 55:05 Special Edition MOL with Josh Wolfe, Rachel Holt, Scott Belsky, Scott Stanford, and Peter Deng. · More or Less Podcast
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI labs seeking regulatory capture is cynical and anti-American
“I think it's very cynical for these companies to even try to switch the field of play from business to politics, right? Like, I think that's a very cynical, anti-American thing to do, to be like, okay, we're not going to play and compete in capitalism in a fai…”
Sam Lessin Jul 17, 2026 ▶ 21:49 Open Source AI Wins. Now Labs Are Running to Washington |Thinking Machines, Johnny Ive, Realtime API · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Anthropic has completely overtaken OpenAI in revenue
“So I'm just curious how you reconcile what you were saying about the costs and everything with just the unprecedented growth that Anthropic has seen and the like flippening with open AI where it has just completely overtaken open AI from a revenue perspective.”
Amir Efrati May 29, 2026 ▶ 20:02 Normal People Don't Want AI Agents (And Silicon Valley Can't Accept It) · More or Less Podcast

How the calls resolved the full record →

Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin says any TikTok ban legislation will inevitably face court challenges
“And then the court, you know, inevitable court challenge of that, because you have to believe that will happen.”
Jessica Lessin Mar 15, 2024 ▶ 6:14 #38: Hartz and Minds and TikTok w/ Special Guest Julia Hartz · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Brit Morin: Taylor Swift Drew More Visitors to Paris Than the Olympics
“She brought more people to Paris than the Olympics are expected to.”
Brit Morin May 17, 2024 ▶ 49:55 #47: Algorithm-Proof Media and New Twists in the AI War · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: Taylor Swift will endorse Kamala Harris
“Guys, she's gonna endorse Kamala.”
Jessica Lessin Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 3:47 #59: Google: Can it Outrun Regulation? · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Morin: Adjusted for inflation, Snap stock never gained since IPO
“It's basically been sideways to down, and if you factor in inflation, like, they've never been up since since IPO.”
Dave Morin Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 27:06 #102: Snap Spectacles, Build-A-Bear, and the Myth of the Everything App · More or Less Podcast

Open predictions the full timeline →

17days Jessica Lessin: Anthropic will go public by September Jessica Lessin · prediction date: 2026-09-30 48days OpenAI and Anthropic Are Both Targeting an October IPO Jessica Lessin · prediction date: 2026-10-31 76days Ben Smith: House Democrats will convene corruption committees targeting Big Tech CEOs Ben Smith · prediction date: 2026-11-28 109days Lessin: A YouTube creator will win an Emmy Award Jessica Lessin · prediction date: 2026-12-31

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Amir Efrati 1 9 3 0 0 100%
Guillermo Rauch 3 46 4 1 1 67%
Vinod Khosla 2 30 2 1 0 67%
Anatoly Yakovenko 1 18 2 1 0 67%
Scott Stanford 1 6 3 1 1 60%
Mike Brown 1 21 2 2 0 50%
Stuart Landesberg 1 22 3 2 2 43%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“when you get down to a lower level, because you can no longer have on-off APIs, because everything is scriptable, because these things can script any interface and interact anyway, as long as you have…”

“These clouds, I mean, I don't think Meta publishes it or Google publishes it, but my guess is that it's around ten million computers in like these clouds globally, if not tens of millions, and no one…”

“And then you have like duration mismatch between like the hard assets and the financing. So like the chip, depending if you look at meta or Amazon debate, whether it's a three year or five year…”

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