Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Nearly 70% of Vercel documentation traffic comes from coding agents
“Nearly 70% of traffic To Vercel docs is now coming from coding agents. 70% and only 30% of page views are coming from humans.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Major AI labs view coding agents as most promising AGI path
“You know, I've spoken with a bunch of people about this at every other lab and they themselves have been surprised that a coding agent was, is the most promising path to AGI.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: AI agents will soon independently sign up and pay for services
“I fully expect agents to be signing up for services directly, zero human intervention soon, making payments on behalf of people imminently, you know, getting credit cards and budgets and solving entire problems for people where the service provider becomes an,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: The SaaS business model will be disrupted by AI agents
“The SAS business model definitely gets disrupted because it was predicated on selling seats.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: AI model providers cannot sustain flat subscription pricing
“By the way, one prediction that I, that I'll make is that it's going to continue to get more and more complicated for them to sustain the subscription thing, because it's almost an impossible problem.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Generating software will win over searching for and procuring software
“Generating software, it was in competition now with Googling for software, but now generating software is not just in competition, it's going to win. It means that everyone can produce their own software for personal use or for enterprise use, because why woul…”
Insight
Rauch: Giving AI agents full computer access produces an AGI-like experience
“The very fascinating thing about agents is the more power an agent has, the more intelligently it performs. And so if an agent has an entire computer, like a Mac mini, it, you feel like you have AGI in your hands.”
Opinion
Rauch: OpenClaw has similar potential to Linux to become ubiquitous infrastructure
“But this is a good problem to have because when, ah, I really think that, you know, OpenClaw is like Linux. And I agree with Jensen Huang that when Linus Torvalds introduced Linux on the mailing list, he said, I have this toy kernel. Totally not for production…”
Disclosure
Rauch: Vercel candidates must explain how they would automate their own roles
“And so basically everyone at Vercel is now kind of like the steward of the agent, and that's their new job expectation. And now it's become part of our job screening, which actually forces the hiring manager to think about, I'm hiring a roboticist. I'm not hir…”
Assertion Supported
Rauch: Vercel rerouted Dubai region after two AWS availability zones were droned
“Our region in Dubai got taken offline because of war. You know, two of our availability zones hosted by AWS were droned. So we had to reroute an entire region”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Cloud infrastructure will increasingly become a physical target in conflicts
“I think we're going to continue to see how our cloud infrastructure becomes a target because the most valuable thing will be the computers being online and doing number crunching and processing and disseminating intelligence.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Traffic for generic factual content will stay inside AI front ends
“It used to be a valid content marketing strategy and like marketers in the values to do this, like create a lot of content so that when people search, you'll hit the keywords and whatever, but increasingly a lot of that traffic will just stay in the AI front e…”
Opinion
Rauch: Generating software is AI's killer application
“Generating software is actually the killer app of AI.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: AI will expand React developers from four to fifty million
“There's four million React developers. I can move that from four million to fifty million trivially, because now like you just speak English to that thing. Even if like it doesn't do a hundred percent of the job, it's just like this like infinitely available a…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: AI search tools will absorb traffic for factual content marketing
“And so if what you're producing is content that is sort of like facts in general knowledge, it's very likely that you're never, you're not even going to get back the backlinks. Cause someone's going to search on Google, for example, what is HTTP? It used to be…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Natural language AI will trivially grow React developers to 50M
“Like there's four million react developers. I can move that from four million to fifty million trivially, because now like you just speak English to that thing. Even if like it doesn't do a hundred percent of the job, it's just like this, like infinitely avail…”
Opinion
Rauch: Much of AI output is horrible slop driven by hype
“We do have to hold AI to an insanely high bar because there's way too much spending and way too much hype, and a lot of it is the slop. It's just like, a lot of it looks horrible.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Customers Who Build on Vercel Never Need Cloudflare
“With Cloudflare, it's more like the meme of like, I don't think about you, because when customers build on Vercel, they never end up needing Cloudflare, but they're coming to us to build software, not to sort of like proxy it or whatnot.”
Insight
Rauch: Coding agents are the necessary foundation for general-purpose AI agents
“Turned out that a coding agent was a necessary DNA for full personal agents and general purpose agents to grow first.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Vercel Signups Are Growing 50% Month Over Month
“Our signups are growing by 50% month over month.”
Assertion Supported
Rauch: Anthropic long refused to support agents.md, requiring claude.md files
“For example, I don't know if they've adapted yet, but Anthropic for a long time was not playing ball with agents.md. You could only call their instructions claude.md.”
Disclosure
Rauch: Vercel aims to become the AWS of agentic infrastructure
“So that's the focus of the company right now build being the AWS of agentic infrastructure.”
Insight
Rauch: Being technical now means using AI tools effectively
“The new technical is that you used AI tools so well that what people used to take pride in being technical on is now an implementation detail that is less important.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Bewildering agent demand will spark battles over CPU and GPU allocation
“One thing I also predict is that the stress on infrastructure is going to be bewildering. Who gets allocation of hardware is going to become a big battle. Again, it's not just GPUs, by the way, it's also CPUs. Who gets access to raw metal to satisfy the endles…”
Guillermo Rauch